KING OF BAIN....Oh My Gawd!

Quote from Epic:

I will grant you that he in fact did have a couple valleys that took him as low as Obama's valleys, so I will concede the point.

But since this is a trading site, I will present the argument a different way. Take the Truman graph and the Obama graph and take the noise out of it through something like a 30-day moving average. You'll realize that while Truman had a couple dramatic spikes down for a month or two, his first term 30-day ma was relatively flat, fluctuating above and slightly below 50%. Obama's is a very stable curve getting lower with each passing month since the beginning of his term.

Also, we should consider whether Truman's re-election was a good thing. His second term approval curve mimics George W. Bush and bottomed out at a crazy 22% approval, 65% disapproval. And in fact if you want to get technical, Obama's approval curve looks similar to GW Bush's so far, except that Bush's was about 8-point higher.
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Would like to see the graph with an overlay of the ratings for congress during Truman's time and Obama's time. I know, I should dig for it myself, but maybe since you seem to know where to look?


c
 
Quote from Epic:

Also, we should consider whether Truman's re-election was a good thing. His second term approval curve mimics George W. Bush and bottomed out at a crazy 22% approval, 65% disapproval. And in fact if you want to get technical, Obama's approval curve looks similar to GW Bush's so far, except that Bush's was about 8-point higher.
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A point I forgot to mention was that, during Truman's re-election campaign there were many trying to force him aside for Eisenhower, and the only reason they didn't succeed was that Eisenhower wouldn't let them. After Truman's wildly unpopular second term, Eisenhower gets elected and goes on to achieve approval numbers as high as any other president in history. The only reason he probably didn't get a third term was because during Truman they decided to limit it to prevent such a nightmare from a come behind victory again.

Not good for Obama to be in that category.
 
Quote from Epic:

I will grant you that he in fact did have a couple valleys that took him as low as Obama's valleys, so I will concede the point.

But since this is a trading site, I will present the argument a different way. Take the Truman graph and the Obama graph and take the noise out of it through something like a 30-day moving average. You'll realize that while Truman had a couple dramatic spikes down for a month or two, his first term 30-day ma was relatively flat, fluctuating above and slightly below 50%. Obama's is a very stable curve getting lower with each passing month since the beginning of his term.

Also, we should consider whether Truman's re-election was a good thing. His second term approval curve mimics George W. Bush and bottomed out at a crazy 22% approval, 65% disapproval. And in fact if you want to get technical, Obama's approval curve looks similar to GW Bush's so far, except that Bush's was about 8-point higher.
More...

I was just pointing out your mistaken statements . I disagree with with your analysis.


Unlike other presidents Obama has a core base of supporters(African Americans,Hispanics,gays, over 50 % of women and over 50 % of young people) that will support him .Only Paul can chip away the base of supporters that has allowed Obama to have a average 49 % approval rating.Many of his supporters are pissed and disappointed because he could have done so much more but when Romney is the only other option they will rally and give Obama a 2nd term

Its hard to compare Obama to others when he has such a rock solid base of support and only needs a few independents and white males to win
 
Quote from cgroupman:

Would like to see the graph with an overlay of the ratings for congress during Truman's time and Obama's time. I know, I should dig for it myself, but maybe since you seem to know where to look?


c
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Here you go, it was hard because they weren't in the same format.

The colored graph is the Truman graph.
Green = Approve
Red = Disapprove

The black line overlaid is Obama approval.

126461g.jpg
 
obama's core is a hell of a lot smaller... wait til its one candidate against another.

Obama's core... is some blacks, non workers, govt suckers , radicals and america haters. Just like the democratic party.

last time obama got independents.... that is not going to happen this time. He has lost at least 50% of independents.
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I was just pointing out your mistaken statements . I disagree with with your analysis.


Unlike other presidents Obama has a core base of supporters(African Americans,Hispanics,gays, over 50 % of women and over 50 % of young people) that will support him .Only Paul can chip away the base of supporters that has allowed Obama to have a average 49 % approval rating.Many of his supporters are pissed and disappointed because he could have done so much more but when Romney is the only other option they will rally and give Obama a 2nd term

Its hard to compare Obama to others when he has such a rock solid base of support and only needs a few independents and white males to win
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I didn't suggest it would be a landslide or an easy victory. I'm also not saying that I would prefer that he lose. Just doesn't seem that you or his other supporters are being realistic or objective.

The groups of rock solid support aren't the advantage you think they are. All together minorities and gays are his strongest block, but they are relatively small in number and concentrated into very small geographic areas. They would help him much more if they were spread out. Besides that, if Romney were to select a minority or woman running mate, that base becomes a bit less solid.

His support among women will almost certainly be much lower this election, unless he boots Biden and runs with Hillary. When running against McCain it was easy for Obama to win the female vote, but Romney is popular with women as well.
 
Quote from jem:

obama's core is a hell of a lot smaller... wait til its one candidate against another.

Obama's core... is some blacks, non workers, govt suckers , radicals and america haters. Just like the democratic party.

last time obama got independents.... that is not going to happen this time. He has lost at least 50% of independents.
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Astute observation. BO might possibly win again by a nose. But barring any major favorable events between now and NOV it's very unlikely he'll win in a landslide like last time. Regardless of who the GOP candidate is.
 
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