Quote from Epic:
I didn't say that he wouldn't like to win. Just that he knows that it is virtually impossible. He is much more pragmatic than his supporters give him credit for. I believe that he is more content to simply be heard than his supporters are. If a slightly younger and more financially connected person were there to carry the torch then I don't think he would even be running.
Also, the more popular he gets, the closer his supporters get to the moment of truth. How much do they support him vs the idea of him. You are absolutely correct that a Gingrich or Romney presidency would result in relatively slow and minor changes. But a Paul presidency wouldn't result in nearly as much fast dramatic change as his supporters envision. He is incredibly uncompromising and wouldn't have the ability to even get close to some of the changes he would like to see.
Specifically in terms of budget issues, congress has more power there. He has suggested in the past that he wants reductions in government of about 70%. That would be well outside his power without an accommodating congress. The only chance he would even have of making many of the changes he wants is if the tea party movement continued to win dramatic increases in congress and he had not only a super majority, but a heavily tea party sympathetic super majority.
Also, are his supporters ready to see him endorse Romney in the general election?
My best guess is that if Ron Paul does not get the nomination he will endorse Gary Johnson. Paul will never endorse the borg. You are correct that Ron Paul will not be able to do domestically anywhere near what he wants to do, because congress will oppose him every step of the way. But I also know that Paul will veto at least 80% of the laws congress tries to pass. That will be fun to watch. If he can just get the deficit below $1 trillion that will be better than what any of the alternatives will do.