KING OF BAIN....Oh My Gawd!

Brass · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Epic:

IMO, doesn't matter in the end for most of those groups. The farther right is gonna vote GOP regardless of the nominee because they absolutely hate Obama. At least 90% of middle of the road repubs will do the same.

Even though 40% of everyone identifies as independent, a huge portion of those are just trying to make themselves feel good. In reality they will partisan vote unless someone can really fire them up, and it is all but impossible for Obama to fire anyone in that group up this time around, so the GOP has an advantage there.

True objective and impartial independents are actually less than a 10% minority. By my estimation, this time around partisan voters will account for about 42% of the country voting GOP. And another 5% who normally lean democrat but are just completely frustrated with government enough to vote out the current party.

Even with an extremely fired up base, Obama only managed to get 52% of the vote against what most GOP partisan voters considered the worst nominee they've had in a few decades. It's pretty safe to assume that he won't get as much this time. There is just no fire there.

From an objective standpoint, it is hard to see how the GOp doesn't have a large statistical advantage regardless of nominee this time.

Perhaps we are both the victims of our own biases, but I think you're wrong on a few counts. Regardless, Romney is in a dilemma. On the one hand, he apparently needs to lean farther and farther Right to get the GOP nomination, but that very effort may be the rope that hangs him in the general election. And while he may have a supply of different faces to choose from to suit the occasion, it seems this very propensity itself is also being called into question. We'll see how it all plays out.

Epic · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Obama doesn't have a 60 % disapproval rating in any major polls.

Sorry, poorly worded. I didn't mean to suggest that he has a disapproval rating of 60%, but that his approval rating was nearing 40%.

The other part of the statement still holds true. No incumbent has ever won re-election with such low approval and such high disapproval.

Epic · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Brass:

Perhaps we are both the victims of our own biases, but I think you're wrong on a few counts. Regardless, Romney is in a dilemma. On the one hand, he apparently needs to lean farther and farther Right to get the GOP nomination, but that very effort may be the rope that hangs him in the general election. And while he may have a supply of different faces to choose from to suit the occasion, it seems this very propensity itself is also being called into question. We'll see how it all plays out.

Sure, but actually I am what most would consider a militant independent who thinks that partisan politics have destroyed this country. I'm just speaking in terms of what my own strategy would be if I were to compete against these guys. I don't think that either Obama or Romney would do a greater amount of damage when stacked up against each other.

cgroupman · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

Thank you AK. I'm saving this post for Ricter and others who don't believe that the left owns the media in this country. Land of the free my ass.

No, but land of free enterprise. You'll likely hate this. The media is market driven, just like Bain capital, who I have no problem with. Companies need to be lean to be successful. Media has to make money to be successful, and the more people who like their show, the better. This would mean that the media executives think that more people tend to be, shall we say, not right wing.

Fox has the, getting bigger every year it seems, the right side of the media. They have done extremely well. Probably better than what you call the MSM, I know better than most of the old standards, cbs nbc abc. Hey, were else would you find the Simpsons and O'reilly at the same place? It's just that there are more hogs feeding at the same demographic trough.

I honestly wish, as I've said before on here, that we could just get real reporting without all the partisan crapola. Both sides.

I do think, however, that we have seen much of the Country get a bit more conservative, and the liberals have been let down by Obama, but the media still tends to lean more left than right, partly due to overall demographics.

I know you're speaking of news only, and I got a bit side-tracked, sorry for the long post. Just an idea.

edit: I guess what I'm saying is that I wish the News bureaus didn't have to pay for themselves.

c

Maverick74 · Jan 12, 2012

27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" > <param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/> <param name="quality" value="best"/> <param name="scale" value="noscale" /> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"/> <param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/> <param name="salign" value="lt"/> <param name="flashVars" value="startTime=000"/> <param name="flashVars" value="endTime=000"/> <param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/3000066945/code/cnbcplayershare" /> <embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/3000066945/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /></object>

Here is the video.

Epic · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from cgroupman:

No, but land of free enterprise. You'll likely hate this. The media is market driven, just like Bain capital, who I have no problem with.

c

IMO, there is another element that shouldn't be forgotten. Why are such a disproportionate number of movie stars and entertainers liberal? It isn't because the market wants them to be liberal, but rather that "artists, musicians, thespians, etc.." tend to have personalities that favor liberalism.

So the market demand isn't necessarily for the liberal media, but rather the liberal personality who is propagating it. I really like Matt Damon and Tom Hanks as actors. Both are more than willing to share their political views at any opportunity, and those views don't correspond with my own. But they get a lot of media coverage because I want to hear what they say, because I'm draw to them as personalities.

AK Forty Seven · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Epic:

The other part of the statement still holds true. No incumbent has ever won re-election with such low approval and such high disapproval.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_S._Truman

The 1948 presidential election is best remembered for Truman's stunning come-from-behind victory. In the spring of 1948, Truman's public approval rating stood at 36%,and the president was nearly universally regarded as incapable of winning the general election.

Epic · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_S._Truman

The 1948 presidential election is best remembered for Truman's stunning come-from-behind victory. In the spring of 1948, Truman's public approval rating stood at 36%,and the president was nearly universally regarded as incapable of winning the general election.

I will grant you that he in fact did have a couple valleys that took him as low as Obama's valleys, so I will concede the point.

But since this is a trading site, I will present the argument a different way. Take the Truman graph and the Obama graph and take the noise out of it through something like a 30-day moving average. You'll realize that while Truman had a couple dramatic spikes down for a month or two, his first term 30-day ma was relatively flat, fluctuating above and slightly below 50%. Obama's is a very stable curve getting lower with each passing month since the beginning of his term.

Also, we should consider whether Truman's re-election was a good thing. His second term approval curve mimics George W. Bush and bottomed out at a crazy 22% approval, 65% disapproval. And in fact if you want to get technical, Obama's approval curve looks similar to GW Bush's so far, except that Bush's was about 8-point higher.

cgroupman · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

<object id="cnbcplayer" height="380" width="400" classid="clsid27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" > <param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/> <param name="quality" value="best"/> <param name="scale" value="noscale" /> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"/> <param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/> <param name="salign" value="lt"/> <param name="flashVars" value="startTime=000"/> <param name="flashVars" value="endTime=000"/> <param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/3000066945/code/cnbcplayershare" /> <embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/3000066945/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /></object>

Here is the video.

Did not embed?

c

cgroupman · Jan 12, 2012

Quote from Epic:

IMO, there is another element that shouldn't be forgotten. Why are such a disproportionate number of movie stars and entertainers liberal? It isn't because the market wants them to be liberal, but rather that "artists, musicians, thespians, etc.." tend to have personalities that favor liberalism.

So the market demand isn't necessarily for the liberal media, but rather the liberal personality who is propagating it. I really like Matt Damon and Tom Hanks as actors. Both are more than willing to share their political views at any opportunity, and those views don't correspond with my own. But they get a lot of media coverage because I want to hear what they say, because I'm draw to them as personalities.

Valid point as to the movie industry as a whole. I guess, historically run by a more liberal base as well. I think I'll stick my hope to have news bureaus non bias, and maybe paid for by the entertainment portion of the revenues, like the old days.

c