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I thought he was a bozo

Poll question was for which comes first 2750 or 3200. ES low was below 2750 today, so you already lost

This did not aged well. Less than 24 hours of your post. Who is dumb now?

Snake Oil (steady options)

You can use gordon growth formula Price = D1/ (r-g) where D1 is next year dividends and r is cost of capital or reqd rate of return and g = growth rate Rearrange return = yield + growth In reality, you have to take into change of valuation (multiple expansion or contraction) also, so return =...

Then the following statement from him doesn't make sense

There was no spike (down or up) in VIX at 1 PM on Tuesday. It was at 10 am when they announced rate cuts

Looks like you came over from Bogleheads most popular "Hedgefundie" thread. Ironic for the "stay the course" crowd. Most of the answers for your questions is already there in their mega-thread. You are already using triple levered funds. From understanding your question, you want 4.5x to 6x...

https://www.predictit.org/ https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

What is hedge of a hedge?

2 More Cases Reported in Washington State, and First in Dominican Republic With two more cases announced in Washington State and one in Rhode Island, the total in the United States has now reached 73. In the Dominican Republic, a tourist visiting the country from Italy tested positive. RIGHT...

NYT: Rhode Island reports its first case. Rhode Island on Sunday reported its first “presumptive positive” coronavirus case, a man in his 40s who had recently traveled to Italy, France and Spain, state officials said at a news conference on Sunday. It was the first case in the United States...

Which one is right? you seem to indicate 100% stock all the way till retirement and suddenly switch over to 30% to 50% stock just before the retirement? What happens one year before retirement stock drops 80% as you suggest? Who is bullshitting? I don't think you understand sequence of return

Who said not to invest in equities or a being frugal saver? I was responding to the overconfidence to the quote investing all the way to 80% drop with 100% equities. It may workout for younger investor, but not for the ones closer to retirement. Now he has changed the tune 30% to 50% stock...

What bullshit? Retire does not have option to dollar cost average. If he looses 80% at the time of retirement, it is set in stone. Just go thru' this book, if you have time. It is first hand account of the person during that period.

Expected returns are higher when the markets are down a lot. That being said investors are always braver at the top. If the markets are down 80%, then it has to go up 500% to break even. After depression in 1929, it took close to two decades before markets regained its original level. Dollar...

That actually is dividend yield. Earnings yield is just the inverse of P/E ratio https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120513/comparing-pe-eps-and-earnings-yield.asp

What is the logic behind this trade? To get some protection behind 2200, while navigating black hole of death?

You are being generous. His entire base is science deniers and flat earthers

If you combine the odds from Prectitit and Betfair, odds of Bernie presidency is not that great. https://electionbettingodds.com/ P (Presidency) for Bernie is 23.5% P (Nomination) for Bernie is 52.5% P(Pres|Nom) for Bernie = 0.235/0.525 = 44.75%