Hedging 401K accounts

[Deez]

lol a pair of idiots...

You don’t trade because you’re financially set right? Disability?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Expected returns are higher when the markets are down a lot.

That being said investors are always braver at the top. If the markets are down 80%, then it has to go up 500% to break even. After depression in 1929, it took close to two decades before markets regained its original level.

Dollar cost averaging helped the investor who were young and kept on investing. But due to sequence of risk, retiree at the beginning of depression died eating cat food

gmal,

Dollar cost average the S&P 500 Index and keep it simple man. We don't need to do all this bullshitting around about something so simple.

 

[gmal]

gmal,

Dollar cost average the S&P 500 Index and keep it simple man. We don't need to do all this bullshitting around about something so simple.

What bullshit?

Retire does not have option to dollar cost average. If he looses 80% at the time of retirement, it is set in stone.

Just go thru' this book, if you have time. It is first hand account of the person during that period.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

very good goal, and the History is on your side. That being said, Japan is still below all time high made over 30 years ago. What happened last 10 years is something we have never seen before, the ramifications will be known next decade.

RedDuke,

Do you have any other options before dollar cost average?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

What bullshit?

Retire does not have option to dollar cost average. If he looses 80% at the time of retirement, it is set in stone.

Just go thru' this book, if you have time. It is first hand account of the person during that period.

At the time of retirement, noone should be over 50% allocated to stocks. more like 30% stocks and 70% low risk (stable fund or bonds)

Keep it simple and stop bullshitting.

 

[RedDuke]

RedDuke,

Do you have any other options before dollar cost average?

yes, I spent a long time developing algos to trade financial markets.

but, your ideas might work, as long as history will repeat, but it needs to repeat almost identically

 

[SimpleMeLike]

yes, I spent a long time developing algos to trade financial markets.

but, your ideas might work, as long as history will repeat, but it needs to repeat almost identically

RedDuke,

LOL , ...."might".... stop monkeying around man. No need to make this complicated. Them numbers below don't lie. It waayyyy to much bullshitting going around here.

An investor who started with $1.00 and invested $1000 per month in Vanguard VFNIX (S&P 500 index) starting in 1985, has $3 million and only risked $420K (35x12x$1000).

Watch some ass bounce while you look at the numbers below.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...nchmark=VFINX&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100

 

[ironchef]

very good goal, and the History is on your side. That being said, Japan is still below all time high made over 30 years ago. What happened last 10 years is something we have never seen before, the ramifications will be known next decade.

No one can contribute to 401K in one lump sum, so use Japan as example, you started in Japan 30 years ago or 20 years ago or 10 years ago, dollar cost averaging still worked:

1. If you retired in Japan 30 years ago at the peak, you contributed yearly many years prior when stocks were cheap, so that by the peak you already had an outsize return, you could afford the drops after you retired.

2. You contributed through the peak and dollar cost average would lower your cost and improved your returns for retirement.

3. The one thing that could trip you would be when the time was good, instead of continued to contribute you stopped thinking it was enough.

 

[ironchef]

What bullshit?

Retire does not have option to dollar cost average. If he looses 80% at the time of retirement, it is set in stone.

Just go thru' this book, if you have time. It is first hand account of the person during that period.

There were no safety nets back in the 1920s. Today in the US, EU and Japan, SS will soften the blow, 401K and IRA will further help frugal savers.

I think the risk is higher if you don't invest in equities.

 

[dozu888]

No one can contribute to 401K in one lump sum, so use Japan as example, you started in Japan 30 years ago or 20 years ago or 10 years ago, dollar cost averaging still worked:

1. If you retired in Japan 30 years ago at the peak, you contributed yearly many years prior when stocks were cheap, so that by the peak you already had an outsize return, you could afford the drops after you retired.

2. You contributed through the peak and dollar cost average would lower your cost and improved your returns for retirement.

3. The one thing that could trip you would be when the time was good, instead of continued to contribute you stopped thinking it was enough.

the japan argument is the same brain dead argument like what if you bot the qqq peak in 2000... it's the empty handed people looking for excuses.