Hedging 401K accounts

What's your strategy

  • Hold through a crash

    Votes: 4 44.4%
  • Cash out

    Votes: 2 22.2%
  • Switch instruments

    Votes: 3 33.3%

  • Total voters
    9
This is a somewhat dangerous line of thinking because it ignores a massive assumption....that earnings and dividends won't be impacted by a 30% drop in the market. It assumes that not only won't the market fall itself impact the real economy, but the thing causing the market fall won't either.
I guess it's possible they won't be impacted, despite the fact that they have in past corrections of that magnitude. However you'd want to make a case for why that would be the case rather than just ignoring something that's crucial to that line of thinking.
It's hard to model and even harder to intuitively predict the impacts of interconnectedness, so our brains tend to discount it or pretend it's not there at all. IMHO that's the reason so many predictions and more importantly their error bars (if the predictor is sophisticated enough to provide them) are so far off.

The earnings hit from recessions is short-term - this is the concept behind using smoothed valuation measures like the CAPE, though you can also just eyeball EPS trends and levels. In the GFC for instance, EPS had recovered to May 2008 levels (when the market was still only off around 10-15%) by Q3 2009. It did take about four years to regain the 2007 peak EPS (and a similar amount of time in the 1990 and 2000 recessions) but the fact remains that panicking out in late 2008 / early 2009 because earnings and dividends had fallen would have been short-sighted and foolish, an epic blunder. Obviously, the correct approach was to back up the truck and shovel every dollar you could into the market right as those earnings and dividends were plunging.

The same is going to be true in pretty much every recession / downturn, unless a) catastrophic policy mistakes or supply/demand shocks cause a Great Depression where GDP shrinks by 25%+ and doesn't recover, or b) the economy is so badly distorted that a return to normal conditions requires wiping out large swaths of the corporate sector, and abandoning activities which were artificially inflating GDP and corporate earnings to a huge degree - you saw this the PIIGS, especially Greece, Iceland, and Ireland where the economy became utterly reliant on huge sector imbalances, bubble activities and what amounted to accounting fraud, but it's much less likely to happen in an enormous highly diversified economy and stock market like that of the USA. All the more so if your portfolio has a fair bit of international exposure.

The other major exception is if valuations get so extreme (like the up to 100x PEs and negative carry on property seen in 1989 Japan) that there really isn't any meaningful equity risk premium, even compared to zero or slightly negative rates on cash. But we aren't there yet.
 
The earnings hit from recessions is short-term - this is the concept behind using smoothed valuation measures like the CAPE, though you can also just eyeball EPS trends and levels. In the GFC for instance, EPS had recovered to May 2008 levels (when the market was still only off around 10-15%) by Q3 2009. It did take about four years to regain the 2007 peak EPS (and a similar amount of time in the 1990 and 2000 recessions) but the fact remains that panicking out in late 2008 / early 2009 because earnings and dividends had fallen would have been short-sighted and foolish, an epic blunder. Obviously, the correct approach was to back up the truck and shovel every dollar you could into the market right as those earnings and dividends were plunging.

The same is going to be true in pretty much every recession / downturn, unless a) catastrophic policy mistakes or supply/demand shocks cause a Great Depression where GDP shrinks by 25%+ and doesn't recover, or b) the economy is so badly distorted that a return to normal conditions requires wiping out large swaths of the corporate sector, and abandoning activities which were artificially inflating GDP and corporate earnings to a huge degree - you saw this the PIIGS, especially Greece, Iceland, and Ireland where the economy became utterly reliant on huge sector imbalances, bubble activities and what amounted to accounting fraud, but it's much less likely to happen in an enormous highly diversified economy and stock market like that of the USA. All the more so if your portfolio has a fair bit of international exposure.

The other major exception is if valuations get so extreme (like the up to 100x PEs and negative carry on property seen in 1989 Japan) that there really isn't any meaningful equity risk premium, even compared to zero or slightly negative rates on cash. But we aren't there yet.
I think there is a subtle but crucial difference in what you're saying now and what you said earlier. Earlier you were basically saying not to leave the market because the earnings/dividends were at X and in a correction you will get a much higher earnings yield based on the lower stock price. By definition this would require them to stay at X. Now you're saying that earning/dividends will fall, but that one should buy at the bottom of the correction because they'll revert to mean. Those are very different things, the latter being much more supportable IMHO.
 
I hesitated cashing out, or if it's even wise to do so. I have a feeling we'll have the mother of all bears on such bubbly market so dunno if the "hold through the dips" strategy applies.

If you reallocate, to what instruments?

If one has to ask, then you not have a trading plan where you can answer all the questions before they happen. Best to have your 401k in LLC.

"What's your strategy
  1. Hold through a crash
  2. Cash out
  3. Switch instruments"
All long dividend paying optionable stocks were bought in 2009.

If people would spend couple years learning how to spot different kinds of market reversals instead of how to get in, they have an idea of what to do when market reversal shows itself, then spend time learning how to Hedge correctly.

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By watching the weekly charts, notice when price is like on a steep rocketship, matter of time before collapse or dip, PE ratio's are way out of line overall. Bunching of tops are clear warnings of tired market.

All we can control to a degree is "Risk", learn how to hedge open profits by either using options or futures and hedging those, so you end up with a hedge of a hedge.

If I had to guess how much longer, continued down move into next week, PE's way too high, good correction, maybe 2850-2800 area, but huge guess. And to me, my opinions are the worst.

And the ES 2855 lows was Trendline support and lows of a failed Head and Shoulder's pattern.
I suspect price to drift sideways few months, once "basing" occurs, will looking to buy more stocks/hedged for upside move.

By trading your well back tested Trading plan, you make your own luck, whether the lows are in or not, just sticking to the plan. We all have opinions, best to make trading a game and learn how to play against oneself.
 
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