Your ratio of technical vs fundamental analysis for your trading

[Zzzz1]

a) wrong, price action FOLLOWED the fundamental regime shift, not lead it
b) yes, it would have gotten you long, after 2/3 of the move was done. Not saying this is not a sound approach to follow a trend but book to price ratios in that posted pdf still have nothing to do with technicals. Are you able to reflect and possibly admit someone else also got a valid point sometimes?

No need to get your panties in a wad. The shift in fundamentals was reflected in higher pricing, and any decent trend following system would have gotten you long.

 

[Zzzz1]

yes, and had Trump lost you would have ended up in the shitter...sometimes it makes sense to wait until after major events play out rather than playing a guessing game, given it is close to a coin flip.

True. Even something as elementary as a MA crossover system would have had you LONG on Bank stocks and Materials way before the election. Example BAC chart. You can also see a string of higher highs and higher lows long before November.


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[eganon69]

yes, and had Trump lost you would have ended up in the shitter...sometimes it makes sense to wait until after major events play out rather than playing a guessing game, given it is close to a coin flip.

In the interest of a healthy discussion I will post why this trade from a TA perspective was a rather low risk high reward trade and NOT a coin flip trade. I will only use support/resistance lines and price chart patterns and NO indicators to show my thoughts on this trade and why I took it about 1 month prior to the election and held through the election night.

 

[bone]

a) wrong, price action FOLLOWED the fundamental regime shift, not lead it

Look at the evidence presented in the previous page! Facts are, if fundamentals are strong enough to stimulate a consensus for more buying or selling - that is strongly reflected in price data as an emergent new trend or a fresh directional push ( higher highs and higher lows ).

 

[Zzzz1]

Sure if you include everything under the sun and call it TA then I agree. I was not aware that higher highs and higher lows are TA most trend following systems would have gotten you in days after the Trump win though. But of course you will counter that you are the only boy in town who held a large position through this insane event risk.

Look at the evidence presented in the previous page! Facts are, if fundamentals are strong enough to stimulate a consensus for more buying or selling - that is strongly reflected in price data as an emergent new trend or a fresh directional push ( higher highs and higher lows ).

 

[bone]

Sure if you include everything under the sun and call it TA then I agree. I was not aware that higher highs and higher lows are TA most trend following systems would have gotten you in days after the Trump win though.

Higher highs and higher lows describes price action that would indeed trigger any trend following system - after all, TA is based upon price price action.

 

[Zzzz1]

Right, except none of your brethren who generally post trade entries and exits day in day out have ever made a call post Trump based on technical analysis. At least not until days after. They usually have something technical to say about every stock under the sun.

Higher highs and higher lows describes price action that would indeed trigger any trend following system - after all, TA is based upon price price action.

 

[Golden Retriever Trading]

Wow quite the brouhaha over the holidays from a simple question of TA vs FA. Lol. Who gives a shit if someone uses TA of FA. Whatever works for them works. It really doesn't matter how bad a system or reliability is, as long as it nets green in the P/L statement. If it doesn't work then they'll end up blowing up their trading account, and that hurts a lot more than some words on an anonymous forum.

It would have greatly helped if you had defined what you mean with technical and fundamental. Most on this forum are confused about either definitions. For example, do you include news driven events part of fundamental? Most professional traders would rely on news driven price action for their entries and exits in the short to medium term. Hardly any professional hedge fund or bank trader even stares at charts. Example, after the Trump win Icahn took a large position in equities when most market participants were very bearish and right after the prices in many US based equities started to be bought again. He took profit in many such names since then. He never looked at charts or technicals. I am sure he did not trade off indicators either.

Yes I'd agree with everything you said there. To answer your question, I personally would define trading before a news driven event to be fundamental. If you're going in after the news event and waiting for the dust to settle for setups for entries/exits, or looking at price action to gauge over extensions for pullbacks, rallies, etc I would define that as using TA. Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't this kind of the consensus agreed definition?

 

[Zzzz1]

I could not care less whether some of those people blow up spectacularly. I care about all that dishonesty out there and falsification of facts by TA snake oil salesmen. And I care about certain shady cheaters misleading newbies.

Wow quite the brouhaha over the holidays from a simple question of TA vs FA. Lol. Who gives a shit if someone uses TA of FA. Whatever works for them works. It really doesn't matter how bad a system or reliability is, as long as it nets green in the P/L statement. If it doesn't work then they'll end up blowing up their trading account, and that hurts a lot more than some words on an anonymous forum.



Yes I'd agree with everything you said there. To answer your question, I personally would define trading before a news driven event to be fundamental. If you're going in after the news event and waiting for the dust to settle for setups for entries/exits, or looking at price action to gauge over extensions for pullbacks, rallies, etc I would define that as using TA. Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't this kind of the consensus agreed definition?

 

[Golden Retriever Trading]

Alrighty, fair enough. Btw, that particular comment which you replied to wasn't intended specifically to you. It was just a broad statement to the posters of this thread.