Your ratio of technical vs fundamental analysis for your trading

What is your ratio of technical vs fundamental analysis for your trading

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Nobody should get upset.

In the interest of discussions and learning, I dug up two academic studies on TA with somewhat different conclusions and view points. Both said evidences showed TA worked in certain situations. The TA supporters most likely figured out what worked for them. The others found other ways to trade successfully?

http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/696/1/uk_bl_ethos_431997.pdf

http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/invphiloh/techanal.pdf

Since I was never able to trade with TA successfully, I am going to study both papers carefully over the holiday and perhaps improve my trading.

Cheers and happy New Years to all.
 
As those are academic papers as you claimed I am sure that the authors will have provided in detail walk through the TA approach they have taken with results all under the premise of sound statistical analysis. Else they are not even worth the paper written on.

By the way, you may want to read up on TA definitions. One paper deals with book to market ratios.clearly not TA

ironchef said:
Nobody should get upset.

In the interest of discussions and learning, I dug up two academic studies on TA with somewhat different conclusions and view points. Both said evidences showed TA worked in certain situations. The TA supporters most likely figured out what worked for them. The others found other ways to trade successfully?

http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/696/1/uk_bl_ethos_431997.pdf

http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/invphiloh/techanal.pdf

Since I was never able to trade with TA successfully, I am going to study both papers carefully over the holiday and perhaps improve my trading.

Cheers and happy New Years to all.
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Fundamental considerations are reflected in price. I've never come across a Commercial or large well-informed Spec that allowed a market to remain "mis-priced". ( in the interest of full disclosure, I traded Commercial energy in the 90's )

Everything known about a market - the collective wisdom of fair value, is distilled into the last price print.

To whit, technical traders are factoring fundamentals into their trading models if they are using price data - they just don't realize it.
 
Ifnothing else then 2016 should have have taught you that you are dead wrong about this claim. The buying post Trump had nothing whatsoever to do with technicals and everything with a shift in fundamentals. It served as prime example that markets are not efficient all the times. It took days for the shift in fundamentals to be fully priced in.

bone said:
Fundamental considerations are reflected in price. I've never come across a Commercial or large well-informed Spec that allowed a market to remain "mis-priced". ( in the interest of full disclosure, I traded Commercial energy in the 90's )

Everything known about a market - the collective wisdom of fair value, is distilled into the last price print.

To whit, technical traders are factoring fundamentals into their trading models if they are using price data - they just don't realize it.
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Zzzz1 said:
Ifnothing else then 2016 should have have taught you that you are dead wrong about this claim. The buying post Trump had nothing whatsoever to do with technicals and everything with a shift in fundamentals. It served as prime example that markets are not efficient all the times. It took days for the shift in fundamentals to be fully priced in.
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No need to get your panties in a wad. The shift in fundamentals was reflected in higher pricing, and any decent trend following system would have gotten you long.
 
Here is a thought:

Technical analysis involves studying price and volume movements. Those movements are caused by the shifting opinions and actions of those who’ve done the fundamental analysis of the company and its stock price or situations. So, whether you are a TA or a FA, you are both smart money that can figure out the correct price movement going forward.

Dumb money (general retail guys trade randomly) produce noise, the random movements. I remembered Black published a paper that said something like the price of stock equaled value + noise. Smart money determine value and dumb money (retail investors like me) provide the randomness - noise. I think Prof Shiller said the same thing.

So, no need to argue as you are both doing the same smart thing.:finger:
 
bone said:
No need to get your panties in a wad. The shift in fundamentals was reflected in higher pricing, and any decent trend following system would have gotten you long.
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True. Even something as elementary as a MA crossover system would have had you LONG on Bank stocks and Materials way before the election. Example BAC chart. You can also see a string of higher highs and higher lows long before November.


BAC.png
 
eganon69 said:
True. Even something as elementary as a MA crossover system would have had you LONG on Bank stocks and Materials way before the election. Example BAC chart. You can also see a string of higher highs and higher lows long before November.


View attachment 169249
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Yep. And we've seen the same thing in Rates before the Fed announcement, and in Crude before the OPEC announcement. And where this is super obvious would be in the forward pricing curve - it's a perfect analog to projected supply fundamentals.
 
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