Your going to hate this brutal post

Quote from Spectra:

This is great. I will check it out. Unless it was done in 1999
More...

This was published in 1999, but the accounts analysed were traded during 1997
to 1998. They were all at one firm. There's no information about initial
capitalisation. It's equities trading, not commodities.

The important information seems to be on pages 52/53 of the pdf. If I'm reading
it right:

Of 17 accounts with `statistically significant' day-trading, only one account
showed the ability to be profitable, while 65% of the accounts lost 100% of
their capital.

Out of the 26 accounts included in the study, the most successful single
account had limited short term trading and no day trading.

This is a very small sample, I think. But it may suggest that the canonical 90-95% figure
might be reasonable.

I'ld like to see much more extensive studies before drawing any conclusion.
 
Since I initially asked about some sort of backup to the claims that most traders fail, this is better than nothing!

It really would be interesting to see a large sample of accounts/traders to be done over a significant period of time... hmmm... the wheels are turning...
 
Yup. It's definitely one data point.

And I also think it would be really interesting to see more definitive studies on
the question. It would be great to know, for example, how results varied with
account size, trading style, and time period.

It seems like it ought to be possible to make such information publicly
available on a purely statistical basis, without damaging anyone's anonymity,
or singling out any particular brokers. But I suppose it would require some
sort of regulatory action for it to happen.
 
All futures speculators (not hedgers) are gambling, especially those who play the financials. This includes the novices and professionals.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top