Your going to hate this brutal post

[brownsfan019]

Quote from 123Magic:
All futures speculators (not hedgers) are gambling, especially those who play the financials. This includes the novices and professionals.

Interesting statement... how about some explanation?

I suppose all investments are gambling really - you are betting that the market is going up and/or down, hopefully with the odds in your favor. That can be applied to stocks, futures, forex, options, mutual funds, etc. It doesn't matter if you are a hyper-scalper, day trader, or a buy and hold person.

This topic has been discussed before and I think it's purely semantics. All forms of 'investments' whether active or passive can be called gambling. I think you'll find though Magic, as a new poster here, most guys do not look at themselves as gamblers. The same can be said of professional poker players - they too are gamblers by definition, but the pro's are simply exploiting a weakness and making money at it.

 

[123Magic]

Quote from brownsfan019:

Interesting statement... how about some explanation?

I suppose all investments are gambling really - you are betting that the market is going up and/or down, hopefully with the odds in your favor. That can be applied to stocks, futures, forex, options, mutual funds, etc. It doesn't matter if you are a hyper-scalper, day trader, or a buy and hold person.

This topic has been discussed before and I think it's purely semantics. All forms of 'investments' whether active or passive can be called gambling. I think you'll find though Magic, as a new poster here, most guys do not look at themselves as gamblers. The same can be said of professional poker players - they too are gamblers by definition, but the pro's are simply exploiting a weakness and making money at it.

The fact that most people here do not view themselves as gamblers doesn't surprise me. It would be a blow to their ego to admit that.

The analogy to pro poker players isn't solid. Futures speculators aren't exploiting any weaknesses of the market. By definition, the market doesn't have any weaknesses--it is what it is and it is always right and doesn't give a damn about any of its participants.

As long as the markets act in a random fashion, those who speculate in them are gambling.

 

[brownsfan019]

Quote from 123Magic:
The fact that most people here do not view themselves as gamblers doesn't surprise me. It would be a blow to their ego to admit that.

The analogy to pro poker players isn't solid. Futures speculators aren't exploiting any weaknesses of the market. By definition, the market doesn't have any weaknesses--it is what it is and it is always right and doesn't give a damn about any of its participants.

As long as the markets act in a random fashion, those who speculate in them are gambling.

Well Magic, perhaps you should provide the community of ET here a little background information on yourself since you appear to be very convicted in your few posts here so far.

Share with the group what qualifies you to join a message board and within a few posts start to degrade the posts, posters, etc. on a TRADING message board.

As for your comments - all traders are attempting to exploit a weakness in the markets. That weakness can be a number of things, but we are all here trading looking to exploit supply and demand for sake of discussion. If the markets operated in perfect harmony, they would just slowly climb higher and higher. Obviously that is not the case. They may go up over time, but that does not equate to a smooth ride to the top.

By definition, the market moves based on supply and demand that is introduced by those participating in it, which happens to be humans. Since the market is simply a function of those humans and how they interpret information, the market does indeed have 'weaknesses' or maybe a better way to say is that there are many opportunities to exploit the markets fear and greed, which is actually the fear and greed of humans.

As I said, ALL investors/traders are gamblers in some fashion. Again, it's semantics. You can say traders are gamblers and depending on the definition being used, you could be right. I can say that we are anything but gamblers, and I can be right.

The issue some traders would have with being called a gambler is that a gambler implies that you put some money at risk w/o much regard for the risk or reward involved. Most traders that treat their trading like a business take calculated risks and put the odds in their favor. Again, just like a professional poker player does.

In the end, the markets are simply a matter of putting the odds in your favor; however you define what those odds are.

 

[Beebers]

Quote from 123Magic:

The fact that most people here do not view themselves as gamblers doesn't surprise me. It would be a blow to their ego to admit that.

The analogy to pro poker players isn't solid. Futures speculators aren't exploiting any weaknesses of the market. By definition, the market doesn't have any weaknesses--it is what it is and it is always right and doesn't give a damn about any of its participants.

As long as the markets act in a random fashion, those who speculate in them are gambling.

Ah, but you see, the difference between gambling and speculating is the difference in expectancy of luck and success, 49% vs 51%. So a daytrader might very well be a speculator. It is fairly easy to pull in a 60% win/loss ratio but maybe it is the risk/return ratio which separates the non-profitable from the profitable. How about some money management and adding in some take-outs, for every winner take 25% home and the rest shall pay for your losses.

The more you make, the better the wine ....

I think I once saw a study on Linda Raschke's website where they checked for failure rates ... at lbrgroup.com ... too late for me to dig it up.

 

[brownsfan019]

Quote from Beebers:
Ah, but you see, the difference between gambling and speculating is the difference in expectancy of luck and success, 49% vs 51%. So a daytrader might very well be a speculator. It is fairly easy to pull in a 60% win/loss ratio but maybe it is the risk/return ratio which separates the non-profitable from the profitable. How about some money management and adding in some take-outs, for every winner take 25% home and the rest shall pay for your losses.

bee - great point. In my personal trading, I know that I can 'win' as little as 40% of the time and still take home money. I don't know too many gamblers that could win less times than they lose and still make money.

Equating trading and gambling isn't solid. Yes, many people jump into daytrading and gamble away their day. And some of us, have a plan in place to take advantage of that.

 

[123Magic]

Quote from brownsfan019:

The issue some traders would have with being called a gambler is that a gambler implies that you put some money at risk w/o much regard for the risk or reward involved. Most traders that treat their trading like a business take calculated risks and put the odds in their favor. Again, just like a professional poker player does.

In the end, the markets are simply a matter of putting the odds in your favor; however you define what those odds are.

Thank you for backing up my beliefs.

You wrote , "however you define what those odds are." Sounds like (and is) beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Casinos have an irrefutable, mathematical edge on every bet the player makes. Traders don't have anything near that despite possible back testing confirmation and computer modeling and what have you. Why? The market is unpredictable and random. Every trade has the chance of being different from the last despite how many times in the past it looked otherwise. We are not talking about a pair of dice here, but the sum of collective beliefs of market participants that can and often does change second by second.

That's not to say that a few don't make money trading. There are poker payers and sports bettors who do also, but if you ask them they will confess they are gambling. The winning trader will be reluctant to admit he's a gambler because it rubs his ego the wrong way.

 

[virgin]

Quote from 123Magic:

The fact that most people here do not view themselves as gamblers doesn't surprise me. It would be a blow to their ego to admit that.

The analogy to pro poker players isn't solid. Futures speculators aren't exploiting any weaknesses of the market. By definition, the market doesn't have any weaknesses--it is what it is and it is always right and doesn't give a damn about any of its participants.

As long as the markets act in a random fashion, those who speculate in them are gambling.

He Newbie,


I am a professional trader,speculant,gambler(what's in a name, anyway ?) with an edge who makes a living from it. good traders don't have an ego

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from 123Magic:

Thank you for backing up my beliefs.

You wrote , "however you define what those odds are." Sounds like (and is) beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Casinos have an irrefutable, mathematical edge on every bet the player makes. Traders don't have anything near that despite possible back testing confirmation and computer modeling and what have you. Why? The market is unpredictable and random. Every trade has the chance of being different from the last despite how many times in the past it looked otherwise. We are not talking about a pair of dice here, but the sum of collective beliefs of market participants that can and often does change second by second.

That's not to say that a few don't make money trading. There are poker payers and sports bettors who do also, but if you ask them they will confess they are gambling. The winning trader will be reluctant to admit he's a gambler because it rubs his ego the wrong way.

You may well not understand the difference between a gambler and a professional in statistical games. Or you may just be shit stirring.

Who cares

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from kiwi_trader:

You may well not understand the difference between a gambler and a professional in statistical games. Or you may just be shit stirring.

Who cares

my vote says shit-kicker

jj

 

[austinp]

<i>"The market is unpredictable and random."</i>

Partially true.

Blackjack players who become adept at counting cards can create for themselves a slight edge.

Financial market traders (any symbol) who become adept at measuring price action can create for themselves a monumental edge.

If you ever learn to do the latter, only then will you understand.