Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Sorry for not posting in a while guys but its been a rough lately with semester finals coming up and such (I fucking hate high school!).

I added 1 more short to my aussie dollar at a good price of 95.50 average is now 2 at 95.20. We traded extremely high volume yesterday guys! 80k contracts!!! And if you look the last time we traded around that many contracts in one day was when we took off on a major rally. I think everybody who was short (me including) finally cried uncle around 95.25. Now if this isn't the immediant top it sure as hell is pretty damn close. But I have been burt on this trade before so I am being extremely careful.

British pound is working out nicely. Not much to say other than that.

I also shorted 2 july/auggie hog spreads. 100% winner out of 15 years here guys......get em while their hot! Fundamentals support this trade and so does seasonal relation ships so I like this trade for that reason.

A few things im thinking about.......short sep coffee (another 100% seasonal and fundamentals seem to be on its side as does the chart) also short july corn here pretty quick (corn market rally is close to being over.....enough said).

Good Trading Guys

YT
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Sorry for not posting in a while guys but its been a rough lately with semester finals coming up and such (I fucking hate high school!).

I added 1 more short to my aussie dollar at a good price of 95.50 average is now 2 at 95.20. We traded extremely high volume yesterday guys! 80k contracts!!! And if you look the last time we traded around that many contracts in one day was when we took off on a major rally. I think everybody who was short (me including) finally cried uncle around 95.25. Now if this isn't the immediant top it sure as hell is pretty damn close. But I have been burt on this trade before so I am being extremely careful.

British pound is working out nicely. Not much to say other than that.

I also shorted 2 july/auggie hog spreads. 100% winner out of 15 years here guys......get em while their hot! Fundamentals support this trade and so does seasonal relation ships so I like this trade for that reason.

A few things im thinking about.......short sep coffee (another 100% seasonal and fundamentals seem to be on its side as does the chart) also short july corn here pretty quick (corn market rally is close to being over.....enough said).

Good Trading Guys

YT
More...

About the Aussie - You know that I don't follow the futures so what you said about the volume is news to me. Just looking at the daily chart has me really bullish though. We've had some strong upmoves that have all had pretty healthy retracements, if that makes sense. Fundamentally I'm not too in tune with what's going on, but I think this current uptrending channel that started in March may be poised for a strong breakout. We had some trouble getting through 9600 last night, but as I type this we may be setting up for another attempt. Only time will tell.
 
Out of my 2 aussie at 95.67 for a $940 loss. I took a nice little beating on this aussie trade and won't be back in that market for a while.......just to clear my head.

Still hangin on to my british pound.

still got my hog spreads too.

Coffee popped hard today and I thought about placing shorts after we hit 142.5 but I decided to hold off and see what happens at this resistance level (145). If we can't break that level we should head back down to our trading range and eventually break through that range (low of 130) and then break the lows again at 125. Brazil looks to have a massive harvest on the way while vietnam just got done harvesting a record crop of coffee. Exports have slowed and we are coming into a seasonal time of weakness.

I want to sell straddles in the dec corn market like I have talked about before but don't know the exact details yet on what I plan to do.......will just have to keep you all posted.

I like buying wheat down in here if I can get another drop in that market. Big harvest on the way but my feeling is that end users will overbuy just so they don't get screwed like last time. Last time I checked july/sep was trading right at full carry.....might not be a bad idea to put some of those on just in case my theory proves correct.

YT
 
im getting pounded on those shorted swiss francs i have on. i shoulda taken profit but you live you learn. More and more bad economic news keeps popping up and drags on or buck. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out, im gonna leave these on and just see what happens.
 
Out of my pound trade at 1.9750 for a $1600 profit

Still got my hog spreads. Trading around a buck under so far but I expect it to be roughly 2 bucks under fairly quickly.

I did short 1 contract of sep coffee yesterday at 142.30 Target on this trade is first 130 then 125 then look out below!

Also sold 1 december corn 620 straddle at 133. This puts my profit area for the straddle at 753 and 487 which I think is a fairly reasonable area for corn to trade throughout the year. Like I said $7 corn would be the most extreme case this year and that could be caused by extreme drought or something along those lines. $5 corn seems to be the other extreme because while there is a chance we could see $5 corn I don't think it can go lower due to the current demand for corn.

Good Trading Guys
 
whatd you think of the farm bill. im short coffee at 136.60 look at the monthly chart its been pretty congested since march trading in a tight range, getting ready to move one way or the other and my gt says down
 
Well first day of the trading week and I have barely been keeping track of my positions lol.........I got a summer job with a local distributer stacking boxes on pallets between the hours of 5pm and 2am lol I start Thursday!!! I have always had a summer job and I think its a great experience for me (my summer jobs have included working at a hog confinment and working as a telemarketer). I don't exactly live the life of a normal 17 year old (and my income is a little different too). Every time I work a summer job it always reinforces in my mind how hard the average person has to work for their dollar. Think about it guys.......I am working those terrible hours/terrible work for $10.55 an HOUR!!! I can make and lose that kind of money a second!!! It does keep you grounded though and teaches me the value of a dollar.

Coffee has been breaking hard.......im staying short at 142.30 until I see the need to exit my position. First support is 130 then 125.

I did sell another dec corn 620 staddle at 131. My average is now 2 of those straddles at 132. I plan on holding these till expiration.......also might look at selling upside calls here. Corn market is roughly 85% complete and everyone keeps talking how the late planting along with how too much moisture is going to decrease yields by a significant amount.......I believe it was said in Market Wizards that if a market can no longer go up on bullish news or down on bearish news you know its time to pick a top or bottom. Well this corn market can no longer go any higher......late planting/moisture is already priced into the corn market. Volatility is dropping and I think a top is deffinantly in.

My july/auggie hog spreads are working great (im still short at -.30) I expect these to go to around 2-3 bucks under.


Good Trading Guys
 
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