Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Quote from Cutten:

Why short AUD and long CAD? Aren't they trading off similar fundamentals (commodity prices, basically)? Also the AUD has a huge negative carry, making it a tricky short even if you are ultimately right. A flat market will lose you about 0.5% per month.
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Cutten

Now your getting all technical with me man lol!!! I just did those trades because they looked good on a chart and its a moore seasonal trade (I like the KISS rule). I'm out of my canadian actually but im still short the aussie and expect it to pay out nicely.

I do agree with you views on the grain markets though however.


YT
 
ytr,went back to iowa for the weekend and saw no corn,they are tilling, plus had to drive back in a monsoon, they won't be back out to those fields til wed,unless we get a scorch summer,there will be way less than avg corn prod,r u still a bear?
 
its a tough call, corn carry was MUCH larger than I had expected, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. It's hard to call either way but ifI have to choose I think corn goes up pretty big, esp. with all the planting problems. my uncle was there this weekend (iowa) and said it was so green from the rain it looked like the garden of eden though lol!
 
it was very green and healthy, but too wet for tractors in the mud,they cant go into those fields for another 3- 4 days,and on sat afternoon they were tilling,not planting
 
ammo

I thought you live in Iowa? Anyway here in westcentral Iowa most guys have their corn already in and are just waiting for it to dry up so they can get the beans in. I know guys that have planted corn 3 weeks ago and its still not in!!! The ground is just too damn cold and a little warm weather would certainly make everybody happier.

Carryout on corn should go no lower and imo could actually gain a little bit. So I am still bearish corn and I think I will continue to be bearish that market. Soybeans on the other hand are at drastically low carryout and it looks like it could get even thinner if they don't get the acres. However I think soybeans could be just like corn last year with soybeans getting the majority of the acres but we end up eating through the stocks anyway.

A guy has to look at wheat now too. With wheat starting to cheapen up vs corn there is always the possibility that guys will start feeding wheat to their animals vs corn.

If a guy wants to play the corn market I would suggest looking into selling volatility in the options market. This is what I plan to do however I can't find a good stratagy as of yet.

YT
 
im short aussie still man, shoulda covered at 93 buti didnt now its back up it is sticking in this range prettygood u still shooting for 85? Im also short ES, patience on the pig spreads buddy, thats what livestock spreads are all about man. soemtimes they take a while
 
Still short aussie however it refuses to break! If we break today's high tomorrow I think I will just get out of the damn thing and look for another opportunity because if we break that high I think we could make a run for new contract highs and I don't want to be around for that.

Out of es at 1404. About a $600 loss there. I just don't know about this stock market guys. I mean we deffinantly have bottomed but its just a matter of when we are going to finally get out of this conjestion pattern we have had for a few months. Maybe upside calls are a better way to profit on a trade like this.

Still got the hog spreads lol......just give em time.

YT
 
Just reading through this, impressive you are a good writer. No spelling errrors which is a miracle on ET. Your style reminds me of Jim Wyckoff. Keep up the good work!!:)
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Just reading through this, impressive you are a good writer. No spelling errrors which is a miracle on ET. Your style reminds me of Jim Wyckoff. Keep up the good work!!:)
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kingppo

I try to get spelling right although I don't always get it spelled right lol.

I have read about Jim in the Market Wizards book but that just about all I know of him. I don't really know whose style I trade like but I try to read as much as I can about the best traders in the world and pick and choose what I like from each one of them. I am a big believer in focusing on your strengths and forgetting about your weaknesses. So I take from others what I know I already am good at and try to add a certain twist on it that fits me and I just leave the stuff that I know I wouldn't be good at for others.

Good trading to you.

YT
 
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