Quote from Rtrader2525:
Yeah i coulds never get into that damned oj spread, it does look good though! thanks for the heads up, I've been flat all week. Ive got a couple july/march chi wheats on and a bunch of hog spreads (buy july sell aug) july is extremely undervalued in relation to august, check that one out it's a winner every year. then i have a buy august sell october cattle spread on. Pretty much long term, ive really enjoyred reading yourt posts lately i would love to learn the currency markets, i've traded them a little bit. any pointers on where to start??
Yeah that oj spread looks pretty good doesn't it? I have no idea what march/july wheat is doing but be careful. Im hearing most of all the big pit locals in chicago have taken that spread off (they were short it just like you). I know most of the volume is electronic but they provide most of that electronic volume in the pit lol! Im going to check out those livestock spreads right away! Thanks for the tip!
Currency markets are deffinantly a neat market to trade and I also think a good one to start out with if your a beginner (like I am). They are very technical markets and trade nice off of almost any tick charts (13,34,50,75,89,144,233,300) and a 15 min chart. I usually keep the 5 and 20 exp ma's up on the charts along with volume. Usually doesn't hurt to have the 200 exp ma up there as a trend setter. Anything else about that market just PM me although I don't have all the answers (im mainly trading coffee and cocoa futures intra day now lol).
Right now im looking at OJ. Ladies and Gentlemen this thing is going to take off........although im not sure which way lol! My bias is to the upside though. There are several ways we can play this game.
Long may futures around 135-137.5
Long july 135p/145c strangle for 12.85 premium
Long july 140 straddle for 17.10 premium
Long july 145c/155c bull spread for 3.05 premium
145c/155c july backspread for 1.01 premium
These are all limited risk spreads (with a thin market like OJ I can only imagine how thin their options are lol so I don't want to get caught and have to pay up). Vol is low (er) and we have a crop report out friday. Like I said earlier the word is that usda could cut estimates by 1-2 million boxes. I like futures and will probably buy a few contracts at least. I like the stangle but its kind of expensive for me. The straddle is way to expensive. The bull spread appears to be too low delta for this type of play (I think we are going to see a pop rather quickly and viciously). The backspread seems to be about the only option play that is extremely low risk and extremely high reward as of now.
Im probably going long futures and also buying a july backspread (if those pit locals even do option spreads).
Any veteran option players out there that could give any advice on what option stratagy to choose in this type of situation it would be GREATLY APPRECIATED!!!
Good Trading Everyone
YT
