Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Sold mar 10yr 118 call for .35
It closed at .41 I think. Just holding to expiration for it to expire worthless (I hope). Same goes for my strangle.

May OJ closed up .30 today.
 
I just realized that I never let you guys know how my short mar 10yr turned out lol. I ended up covering quite a while ago at 117.5.....even money.

Sorry about that. Please feel free to call me on that kind of stuff so I can keep up to date lol.

YT
 
Well im currently taking some heat on those OJ contracts. Currently trading at 135.45 so im out around $2325. Looking back I should of just bought a strangle or something to play the upcoming volatility. Vol is really low right now so we are breaking out one way or another but my bias is to the upside (duh im long lol). Guys don't expect much from the crop report coming out tomorrow. Unchanged to a 1-2 million box drop is in the cards. I think if anything we are going to be suprised to the upside. The trade has pretty much priced in a neutral-bearish report tomorrow so I dont have much risk and unlimited upside really.

Talk to you all a little later after I have checked everything out and then I will get back to you with what else im thinking of doing.
 
Well dropped a short 5k in OJ today (about $4200 if you want to get technical lol). I seen the crop report come out and it showed a 6 million box drop instead of the flat-2 million box drop forcasted. I went to school a happy camper until I got a call from the broker and he said oj was starting to break. I couldn't believe it! How in the hell could this be happening? I asked him what was going on and he said OJ juice yields were forcasted higher than expected so that made up for the decline in boxes! So I covered at 132.90. I can't believe that I could be that stupid! Why didn't I check the juice yield? What was I thinking?

Well anyway the past is the past and there isn't much you can do about it.

Account is worth roughly $36,600 after the close today. $11,600 in profit so far this year. Im just glad I have those option plays on right now so that will give me some comfort but not a whole hell of a lot.

More of a venting post today than for any informational purposes lol. I just hate to lose!
 
Shorted 20 march/june eurodollar spreads today at 4.4 Looking to take profit at 4.9

Front end of the curve looks tired so I think im safe with this bet. Also will be selling march eurodollar outright at 97 if we can trade there.

I don't know whats happening but for some reason I caught the eurodollar bug lol!
 
Sold 2 march eurodollar this morning at 97.13

I think treasuries have had their fun and we have put in a top for sure. My thinking is that when we start to slide hard it will be the front end that takes us down the most. Low yields, guys taking off steepeners, bad cash auctions, etc are the reasons for this to happen.

Should of sold some 5 year notes along with those eurodollars but I forgot. 5yr price action looks most like march eurodollar's.

Yet another 2 hour late start due to the weather at my high school. Im loving it!!!

YT
 
I wish I would of waited on those eurodollars as I could of sold them at 97.16 which was my origional plan but it started to break and it looked like it wouldn't catch a bid all day so I just went ahead and did it. Only 2 contracts anyway so it wasn't going to kill me if I missed out on a tick or two.

Current financial positions are:

short 2 march eurodollars at 97.13
short 20 H/M eurodollar spreads at -4.40
short 114/118 10yr march strangle at .53
short 118 10yr march call at .35

so quite a few positions on and I have faith in each and every one of them.

Looking ahead to tomorrow. I have half a mind to short more H eurodollars if given the opportunity. I think this is a trade everyone should be taking and should be taking big! If this works out the way I think it should I will be able to pocket a nice chunck of change.

Also looking ahead to tomorrow I am thinking about getting long some K/U corn spreads. Although I do think corn is going to lose substantial acres to beans and wheat I think this is still a good trade for the very short term. I would not want to be long this spread for a long period of time as I think H and K don't have much steam left in them. The big money in the corn bull is going to be made in july and dec. From what I can tell corn is going to lose 5-10 million acres this year. I have not been keeping up on the grain complex as much as I would like to due to my intra day trading in eurex. However I will try to pay more attention to whats happening in this market because there is always opportunities to make money in the grains.

Good trading to everyone tomorrow
 
Well march euro closed at 97.12 I believe down 2. This thing is going to fall through the floor! I've got to just hike up my skirt, find my balls and start shorting some more contracts!!! This could prove to be a big winner if I would just do that.

H/M closed at -46 I believe. So everything working out good there.

One thing I am going to do is try to get a few shorts off in the schatz at 104.86 or so. After todays trade I think this would be a money maker. I think we could take it all the way down to 104.70 tomorrow. So this might be just a quick day trade tomorrow if I can get anything done.

Other than that nothing going.

Talk to you all tomorrow.
 
Short 10 schatz this morning at 104.86 like I said I would. We currently have some big size sitting on the offer around that area and I expect .86-.87 to be massive resistance all day long.

Looking to take money around .70-.75
 
Out of those 10 schatz at .75

About $770 profit on that trade. Took a look at the chart during school and it just didn't look like we were gonna touch .70

A nice break below .75 tomorrow and im willing to sell another 10 or so contracts for another quick trade. Daily chart does not look very strong for schatz (and all short term debt for that matter) and I expect more selling to come tomorrow in that market.

As far as how the intra day trading went for me this morning in that market.....I struggled early on to get anything going as the schatz traded extremely sloppy but around 6-7 cst I got a few good trades in. Basically ended up flat when I quit to leave for school but hey it could of been worse! Today was all about making sure my broker had plenty of money to by his girl a box of chocolates lol!!!

There isn't by chance any traders that trade eurex fixed income intra day that read this thread is there? If so please fell free to post about anything your doing or are thinking about doing to maybe bring a little more "eurex" into this journal. Im trying to do that in the eurex section of et but nobody seems to want to do it. I think it would be really cool if all the bund bobl and schatz traders could get a thread or journal started like the es journal and everybody share their thoughts and talk about what they are doing. Thats the goal but maybe not many people trade eurex on et?

Eurodollar closed at 97.105 I don't think im gonna add any shorts until we can break through 97.00

H/M spread closed at -44.5 This thing is kinda just fucking around and not really gaining any steam. Im not sure what to do with this yet. I might just dump it and add more shorts in H outright.

Regardless talk to you all tomorrow.
 
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