Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Quote from Asparagus:

watch the long side of the EUR/USD, this thing is starting to spin its wheels. the USD 'should' be crashing through the floor here - FFF now calling for .2 prob. of 100 basis point cut and the euro rallies then closes on its lows twice in a row....
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Asparagus

Nice to hear from you. While I do not trade forex I do have a buy signal in euro if we can break through thursday's high I believe. As for the dollar they might as well just start piling it all up and dropping a match. This stuff is almost worthless and it doesn't look to gain "long term strength" any time soon.

If you trade forex would you be so kind to answer a few questions I have?

I have a friend who after seeing my moderate success in the markets has decided he wants to give it a try. He does not have much money to start out with (we are basically all broke high school kids) so I recommended that he start with trading forex because brokers usually require only a few $100 to start trading a mini account. He would be under my watch basically all the time so it would not be like he is just being thrown in the jungle all by himself.

The problem is that I have heard some horror stories about forex brokers fucking with you (freezing platform, requoting prices, fucking with charts, massive spreads, etc). I do not want this to happen to him. Could you please give me some knowledge as to where to direct him to start trading forex? What are the BEST OF THE BEST brokers for forex trading that offer mini accounts for a few $100 dollars? Any other advice you can give me to relay to him would be much appreciated.

Thanks

YT
 
i agree, but sometimes its darkest just before the dawn...check out Oanda for your friend.

Best,

Quote from youngtrader:

Asparagus

This stuff is almost worthless and it doesn't look to gain "long term strength" any time soon.

YT
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Added another 5 shorts to my pound trade. Im short 10 contracts at 195.10 as of now.

Well its a funny thing everybody. I knew all along that the s&p was headed to at least 1300 and yet I got scared and took my money WAY to soon. I am still kicking myself for being such a fucking idiot! But the past is the past and we can only look ahead to whats on the way. I believe that we are going to see more selling ahead although I won't get short at these levels. The key to really pay attention to here is when we get a massive pop in this thing (which we will) do not mistake it as a bottom. This "pop" should be sold hard! This is the only way I see left to make money in the es with futures. I will start to look at selling deep out of the money puts in the es sometime this week if I see something interesting. The key now is to capitalize on everyones emotion.

Im also thinking about the treasury markets. I want to get short the back end of the curve but we just keep chugging away higher. There are a few ways I am thinking of going about this. The first is to sell out of the money calls in both the 10 and 30 year. The second is to look for a good place to sell the 30 year outright. The third is to look at putting on a steepener (2yr/10yr). The last is the one I think would be the best R/R but sadly the one I know least about. If there are any veteran yield curve traders reading my journal could you please shed some light on playing a steepener at these levels? We have taken a major dive and with a 20% chance of a full point cut I have to think the 2 year is cheap compared to the back end of the curve.

For those who care I traded 53 rt in the bund today! A major accomplishment for me! I really like that contract and am looking to get into trading the euribor more and more along with it (the bund tends to lead the euribor it seems).

Anyway we will just have to see what tomorrow brings.
 
Out of all my pounds today at 93.65. I didn't start looking at the currencies this morning until around 2am and for once im glad that I trade so early in the morning:)

Total profit on the pound trade is $9062

With a 35k account and im taking profits of 9k on 1 trade im starting to think im getting a little too reckless (although trading aggressive has paid off so far). I might tone it down a bit as im in no hurry to blow up my account lol!

I would of been a smart guy to put on that steepener trade yesterday but I guess im just not smart enough to know when a good trade comes around. I knew that was going to happen (I bet you have heard me say that before).

I did not get long any euro fx. After we had that big drop yesterday it kind of scared me away from getting long but yesterday would of been a great opportunity to buy.

I have mixed feelings on the bond market right now. Gross was on TV when I got home from school around 5. He said he thinks we are in for at least another 1.25 point cut. With this in mind I don't think I can afford to short bonds quite yet. But with the fed meeting next week I think we are certainly going to get .50 bps cut. Then perhaps another .50 and that should be just about it imo......another .25 like gross is saying seems like just a bit to much but then again im just an old iowa farm boy so what the hell do I know about fed policy. Just going to have to play this one by ear.

My bund and euribor trading is going very well. I absolutely love trading the fixed income markets intra day (I wish my hours would allow me to trade US fixed income but beggers can't be choosers). My average is around 20-50 rt in the bund with a few trades here and there in the euribor.

See what tomorrow brings

YT
 
Looking at a few things tomorrow.

I will be more than likely getting short the 10yr tomorrow morning at around 118. With the highest daily volume this month traded yesterday on a range that was huge and opened and closed at around the same spot I have got to think we have a short term top in the treasuries. I have resistance at 118 and 121. While support is at 115.

Also might short a few bunds but maybe not. Just going to have to see how its acting tomorrow morning.

I think we are due for a pop in the es to approx 1385-1400. From there im looking for a short position.

And then there is march feeder cattle. Feeders have been beaten down lately due to the huge rise in corn prices. I think corn is headed to 440 very very soon (although I won't bet you more than a cup of coffee on it:D ). With this huge bull market in corn to be honest im suprised feeders have held up so well. On a weekly chart I look like the smartest guy in the world wanting to get long feeders but on a daily I could get screwed. At 440 I see the corn market heading to at least our previous highs so its just a matter of if its worth buying the feeders based off of a technical bounce and declining corn prices and then dumping them when corn hits 440 and makes its way higher. Im just going to have to sleep on that one and make a decision in the morning.

YT
 
Shorted 1 10yr today at 117.01

I tried to get one sold at 118 yesterday but no luck and I thought I wouldn't get filled today either but suprisingly we traded higher today in the treasuries.

It seems to me that we have put in a short term top in the treasury market and im just looking to take a little off the top. We had unemployement come out and show a drop. Also with a .75 bps cut I think thats enough to stop treasuries from rallying any higher for the time being. I mean it was already in the market that things were going to be bad (it has been since august imo) although I don't think they had priced in a .75 "suprise" cut I do believe however that they had already priced in some sort of a "suprise" cut. I see the fed cutting rates no more than .50 bps and maybe only .25 (I think there is more of a chance of this than what the fed funds futures are forcasting currently). Anyway im just trying to fade the move right now and will probably cover around 115 if given the chance.

I did not do anything with the feeder catte. After talking to some sharp minds in the cattle industry about the idea of buying feeders they strongly advised against it. Although imo I still think we could see a nice pop in feeders.

Im looking for crude to trade higher next week to probably around the 93.50-94 mark. At these levels I am interested in shorting crude all the way back down to 85 at least.

Next week should be fun. I still believe the stock market is in for a pop up to around 1385-1400 sometime soon. After this its headed straight back down.

As for my intra day trading. It hasn't been to bad so far. Im averaging around 15-30 rt's a day. Still just scalping for 3-4 ticks all morning long. Making a few $100 a day with few drawdowns but I do have drawdowns lol. Focusing more on the schatz lately than the bund or bobl. I find the bund tends to be a good leading indicator for the schatz (don't know if this is the case with the 10yr being a good leading indicator for the 2yr).

Anyway have a great weekend everybody and talk to ya next week!

YT
 
Quote from rubibond007:

superb thread man!! and another good call on the 10yr today!.
good job!
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rubibond007

Thanks for the compliments and I hope you are enjoying the thread! Do you take any particular interest in the treasury markets?

10yr settled at 117 so I have basically no profit in the damn thing YET. However today's trade brings me plenty of confidence going into tomorrow short. Im looking to take money at 115.05 if given the chance.

Stock market had a nice pop today and I expect that to continue until around wednesday when we might see a little profit taking before "uncle ben" ruins everything again! IMO whatever the fed does the stock market will still go down on the news however I think after the initial plunge is over I think we will be higher or at least flat going into the weekend.

I purchased a may/nov OJ spread today at 280. This is a trade I highly recommend for a newbie just starting out. From what I can tell the risk reward is about 1:3 and it is a seasonal trade that has a track record of 100% over the last 15 years!!! From looking at the spread it appears to be holding up well and looks to pop hard very soon. If there are any begining traders out there reading this thread (probably not lol) that want to trade but really don't know where to start this is your chance to bang out a quick 3k and only risking around 1k. I hear talk of usda maybe trimming their florida orange crop estimates of 168 million boxes by about 1-3 million boxes. We also appear to be bottoming out on the front month contracts. ALL SYSTEMS GO ON THIS ONE!!!

YT
 
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