You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Youngtrader's Commodity Journal
- Thread starter youngtrader
- Start date
Thanks guys for the advice. Wheat imo is anybodys guess. It moves limit up/limit down every other day. Everytime I try to step in front of that damn thing I get caught and bashed over the head as it rallies another 50 cents against me! There is no ryhme or reason too it. Export business is all they care about and if they get a cancellation or two they can drop that thing hard. Im bearish soybeans at these levels. We live on a farm and can hedge nov 08 beans for 1000. How great is that?! We along with most farmers have already hedged ahead of time so I think there will be plenty of beans next year.
Sold 5 sugar this morning at 1070. Looking for a little correction here as we are terribly overbought. Looking to cover at 1064 or 1055 depending on how I feel about sugar later in the day.
Coffee up strong today. Robusta also trading strong. We need a close over 135. If we can close above that im getting long.
Looking for a short in cotton if we can break through 64.25.
Possible short opportunity in oj. Maybe around 148.25. If not there im looking at a short at 142.50 and then again at137.50. Market has a huge freeze premium in it right now and weather is expected to be favorable.
Good Trading Everyone
Sold 5 sugar this morning at 1070. Looking for a little correction here as we are terribly overbought. Looking to cover at 1064 or 1055 depending on how I feel about sugar later in the day.
Coffee up strong today. Robusta also trading strong. We need a close over 135. If we can close above that im getting long.
Looking for a short in cotton if we can break through 64.25.
Possible short opportunity in oj. Maybe around 148.25. If not there im looking at a short at 142.50 and then again at137.50. Market has a huge freeze premium in it right now and weather is expected to be favorable.
Good Trading Everyone
Out of sugar at 1064. $336 profit. Closed at 1064. Just a little profit taking here but the market wants to go higher. With the holiday around the corner traders I think are just a little reluctant to add new positions.
Coffee got some initial buying due to the bullish stocks report that came out after the close yesterday. Traded over 135 but just couldn't hold that level. Exports continue to be strong and the stocks report showed that. Kind of a mixted situation with coffee right now. Short term demand is good and stocks are fairly low but longer term the crop looks bigger than what everyone previously thought due to the nice precip in the producing countries. I think over the last month or so the coffee market has been trading short term fundies but I have a feeling they are going to start to look at longer term from now on. Especially with the developing crop report out jan 8. I have a short bias as of right now.
Cotton didn't do anything today. No action there.
I did not sell any oj today. I didn't even know that guys were rolling out of jan already into march! So I was glancing at the chart of march oj during study hall and noticed we have a nice sized gap around 150.80 or so. Now maybe some of you don't follow gaps much but I believe that especially with low volume contracts locals watch those gaps closely especially in lumber. So im staying out of march oj until that gets filled or we start breaking through some support levels. Weather calls for no feeze conditions but the trees could use a little rain. Over the next two weeks florida usually experiences its greatest feeze threat. After christmas break I think we could see oj start to trade substantially lower due to the freeze premium in the market declining.
Coffee got some initial buying due to the bullish stocks report that came out after the close yesterday. Traded over 135 but just couldn't hold that level. Exports continue to be strong and the stocks report showed that. Kind of a mixted situation with coffee right now. Short term demand is good and stocks are fairly low but longer term the crop looks bigger than what everyone previously thought due to the nice precip in the producing countries. I think over the last month or so the coffee market has been trading short term fundies but I have a feeling they are going to start to look at longer term from now on. Especially with the developing crop report out jan 8. I have a short bias as of right now.
Cotton didn't do anything today. No action there.
I did not sell any oj today. I didn't even know that guys were rolling out of jan already into march! So I was glancing at the chart of march oj during study hall and noticed we have a nice sized gap around 150.80 or so. Now maybe some of you don't follow gaps much but I believe that especially with low volume contracts locals watch those gaps closely especially in lumber. So im staying out of march oj until that gets filled or we start breaking through some support levels. Weather calls for no feeze conditions but the trees could use a little rain. Over the next two weeks florida usually experiences its greatest feeze threat. After christmas break I think we could see oj start to trade substantially lower due to the freeze premium in the market declining.
Nothing going in sugar today. Im mixed right now. We could possibly be lower today just do to the holidays right around the corner but this market is acting like it wants to trade higher. We have a couple of levels to look at on the downside here. Closing below 1050 sets us up for trade near 1040. Then we run into our 38% retracement at 1036. Then we have 1022-23 as our 50% retracement level as our final support level before I turn bearish this market. My money says we are going lower today though but I just don't want to actually put my money on it lol!
Im a seller of oj at 150.8 (top of gap) or a close below 145. If we close below 145 that sets us up for trade at 142.5 after that the levels are the following. 137.5, 136.2, 132.5
Im a seller in coffee if we can trade up to 135 today. That would be just a quick day trade really. This level has encountered selling for a while now.
Same with cocoa at 2130.
Im a seller of oj at 150.8 (top of gap) or a close below 145. If we close below 145 that sets us up for trade at 142.5 after that the levels are the following. 137.5, 136.2, 132.5
Im a seller in coffee if we can trade up to 135 today. That would be just a quick day trade really. This level has encountered selling for a while now.
Same with cocoa at 2130.
Sugar popped hard today. Market just doesn't want to quit. Funds getting long and looking to make sugar a bigger part of their portfolio next year. Im looking to get long big time this market! I think this thing is a winner and just need to find a nice level to accumulate lots of contracts and then just sit and wait.
I shorted one march oj at 150.8 today. Closed at 150. Locals like I thought pushed the market higher to fill the gap and uncovered buy stops in the market. We rallied to like 152 or something before coming down. Its all total bullshit too! Guys know that this is feeze season and they are willing to take a gamble on a few contracts just because of the possiblility of a feeze. Weather is not showing any feezing conditions so far and temps look to be mild. Like I said before over the next week or two will be the peak of freeze season for the florida oj crop. These guys are gonna get fucked big time if we don't get any bad weather. If you look at a weekly chart on oj you can see that the 150 level is a tough level to break above. Nice spike bars at this level. I just don't see this thing going any higher and will look to add to my position. My money says we are for sure going to trade down to 130 soon!
Shorted one contract of march coffee at 135. We broke through 135.50 and uncovered buy stops which took us to 136, but then the market met some selling and brought us to close at 134.50. I expect this market to start to break soon and return to its long term trading channel. Fundies havn't changed from what I have mentioned before.
All in all not a bad day. Nothing really did anything and I should of been looking more closely at sugar but oh well lol. See what tomorrow brings.
I shorted one march oj at 150.8 today. Closed at 150. Locals like I thought pushed the market higher to fill the gap and uncovered buy stops in the market. We rallied to like 152 or something before coming down. Its all total bullshit too! Guys know that this is feeze season and they are willing to take a gamble on a few contracts just because of the possiblility of a feeze. Weather is not showing any feezing conditions so far and temps look to be mild. Like I said before over the next week or two will be the peak of freeze season for the florida oj crop. These guys are gonna get fucked big time if we don't get any bad weather. If you look at a weekly chart on oj you can see that the 150 level is a tough level to break above. Nice spike bars at this level. I just don't see this thing going any higher and will look to add to my position. My money says we are for sure going to trade down to 130 soon!
Shorted one contract of march coffee at 135. We broke through 135.50 and uncovered buy stops which took us to 136, but then the market met some selling and brought us to close at 134.50. I expect this market to start to break soon and return to its long term trading channel. Fundies havn't changed from what I have mentioned before.
All in all not a bad day. Nothing really did anything and I should of been looking more closely at sugar but oh well lol. See what tomorrow brings.
Quote from xtrhvydty:
Hey yt, a few q's for you:
1. Do the commodities trade well next week or is it a sleeper like the equity markets?
2. Who is your broker? How's the commissions & reliability? Do they have comm options as well?
3. Do you ever trade spreads?
many thx
Yeah holidays really suck for commodities especially the physical ones. Hardly any volume and the market can just go wacko. So I wouldn't call it a sleeper lol. I still trade during the holidays though. Main reason is I just can't go that long without being in the markets lol! So when everyone else is going about their christmas im trying to figure out a way to make a buck lol!
My broker is northstar commodities. Its a full service broker so commisions are not the best ($40 roundtrip). They are great people to work with and are very reliable. I would go with an online broker but im still in high school so I need someone to constantly be watching the markets when I am not able to and getting ahold of me when things happen. Full service brokers are a joke especially when you don't even use their info imo.
Yes I do trade spreads and traded them very actively earlier in the year. That was when I focused on grain but now with all this crazy volatility in the grains I have switched to the softs. I like them alot better because of the info factor. With the grains there can be sometimes so much info that you can get a million different opinions on the market. Plus they don't trade very well off of a chart imo (some people say they do). Also it seems like the next most traded commodity after the energies is the grains and I don't want competition. I am a big believer in playing this game where others don't.
Also I don't know what wheat is doing now but the day after you mentioned the wheat trade it fell through the floor!!! Nice call there. Any other opinions on my markets or the ones you trade?
Nothing changing today everyone. This sugar is getting away from me and im getting fucking pissed off about it. We have touched 1100 this morning so maybe a pullback to 1062 or something before the holidays is in order. Im loading the ship up around that level.
Still keeping to the same plans with the coffee and oj.
Good Trading Everyone
Shorted another coffee at 133.50. Closed at 133.75. Average is 2 at 134.25. Exports slowed down this week and I think guys are taking their money. One coffee trader I talked to said that it looked like longterm liquidation to him. That should be bullish for my position. Im hearing more and more talk about the huge crop thats on the way in brazil. Like I said stocks are low but their seems to be enough to get us through is what im hearing. Watch this thing trade lower tomorrow as guys make their final trades before the holidays. (All ice softs are closed monday and tuesday.......it sucks!)
OJ is a bitch! What the hell is running this market higher? It has to be just spec buying based on possible feeze conditions imo. The funny thing is that nobody is forcasting any freezing type conditions in florida. Now either these guys are all meteoroligist majors that see some type of feezing temps coming or they are just rolling the dice on a seasonal tendancy. I think this is going to be a big winner after everyone comes back from the Christmas break. These guys are going to dump their long positions faster than I can take a girl home and get her panties off!!! That is unless there happens to actually be a freeze over the 4 day holiday break. Then im royally screwed!
Sugar jumped hard again today! Once again I missed the bandwagon. I have lost more money trying to trade against the trend than ever trying to trade with it! Thats why im really reluctant to sell this thing and even kinda reluctant to buy it. Weekly chart looking very bullish now. We are up over the 200 day ma and look to trade substantially higher from now on, my thinking is to 1150. On the daily chart we closed above "the magical" 1100. There is huge resistance at 1120 though. The close was very bullish regardless but I can't help but think that we could see some profit taking tomorrow, especially with it being the last day before the holiday break. My bias is bullish and I will look at levels to accumulate contracts. The levels im thinking about are the following. 1061 (fib retracement), 1050 (mind level), 1044 (fib level), 1025 (S/R level) .
Very active day today and tomorrow should be interesting.
OJ is a bitch! What the hell is running this market higher? It has to be just spec buying based on possible feeze conditions imo. The funny thing is that nobody is forcasting any freezing type conditions in florida. Now either these guys are all meteoroligist majors that see some type of feezing temps coming or they are just rolling the dice on a seasonal tendancy. I think this is going to be a big winner after everyone comes back from the Christmas break. These guys are going to dump their long positions faster than I can take a girl home and get her panties off!!! That is unless there happens to actually be a freeze over the 4 day holiday break. Then im royally screwed!
Sugar jumped hard again today! Once again I missed the bandwagon. I have lost more money trying to trade against the trend than ever trying to trade with it! Thats why im really reluctant to sell this thing and even kinda reluctant to buy it. Weekly chart looking very bullish now. We are up over the 200 day ma and look to trade substantially higher from now on, my thinking is to 1150. On the daily chart we closed above "the magical" 1100. There is huge resistance at 1120 though. The close was very bullish regardless but I can't help but think that we could see some profit taking tomorrow, especially with it being the last day before the holiday break. My bias is bullish and I will look at levels to accumulate contracts. The levels im thinking about are the following. 1061 (fib retracement), 1050 (mind level), 1044 (fib level), 1025 (S/R level) .
Very active day today and tomorrow should be interesting.
By the way does anybody know of some good colleges in chicago? (Ones that you don't need to be half genius to get into). The reason for me asking is that im taking my ACT in Feb and I have to put down a few colleges to send my scores to after I take it. I would really like to go to school in chicago so I can trade closer to the heart of the futures industry. I know of depaul university and thats about it.
Colleges:
Depaul- Good Rep and a lot of fun located in the heart of Lincolnn Park. Tons of hotties running around all the time and good social life.
Loyola- Just apply, good rep private school.
Northwestern- Make sure you do well on your tests and show you have a very active life outside of school. Should be a top school as it is rated one.
Univeristy of Chicago- Need to be more than half a genius to get in. You could meet some future top traders here and there have been plenty of hedge fund managers to walk these halls. Though I don't think you have to be a genius to be a successful trader, this school presents outstanding opportunities after graduation.
Ambitious plays; UC and NW. All around college experience plays: Depaul and Loyola
Good Luck
Depaul- Good Rep and a lot of fun located in the heart of Lincolnn Park. Tons of hotties running around all the time and good social life.
Loyola- Just apply, good rep private school.
Northwestern- Make sure you do well on your tests and show you have a very active life outside of school. Should be a top school as it is rated one.
Univeristy of Chicago- Need to be more than half a genius to get in. You could meet some future top traders here and there have been plenty of hedge fund managers to walk these halls. Though I don't think you have to be a genius to be a successful trader, this school presents outstanding opportunities after graduation.
Ambitious plays; UC and NW. All around college experience plays: Depaul and Loyola
Good Luck