Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Quote from MarkBrown:

hey guy what are your thoughts on feed cattle and copper? any others to comment on? you kinda got me interested in something beside sp and bonds again.

i the old days when i would trade copper they would call me back with a fill in about a week after you lost all your money of course. nah really it would take hours for a fill if not longer..
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Mark,

The cotton, coffee and sugar trades I was talking about above are good ones to look at. Don't really follow the meats much but im bullish corn so that will hurt the price of feeders as a rule. Because of the simple fact that feed is the biggest expense for cattle feeders. In times like these you can't go wrong with buying far out months in hogs and cattle (live cattle). Take the hogs for instance....with the high price of grain and the huge number of hogs being slaughtered (record numbers) these hog producers are running in the red and will start to cull the herd. The time it takes to take a pig all the way to fat (230-250 lbs) and be sold is about 5-6 months. Being a farm kid I know this for a fact! So buying october or december hogs of 2008 is a huge bargain imo because by that time there will be substantially less hogs. If you don't mind tying up some capital for margin buying far out contracts of lean hogs is the way to invest your money.

Don't follow the metals markets either but im bearish the economy overall so that can't help the price of copper any. You might want to just anaylize the technical side of that trade yourself as you are probably a way better chartist than I am!

Hope this helps
 
Young Trader,

Anybody have any thoughts on what im doing here with the markets or just general comments about the journal? Hell I would even take some critisism from somebody lol! I would like to here from some long term readers of this journal and have them give there opinion on either my trades or the journal itself.

Just thought i would let you know i am really impressed with your knowledge of trading and the markets considering your age!!! Keep it up!!!

I saw that you were on the "eurodollar spread" thread, I trade Eurodollars and think it is a pretty interesting product to trade.....so take a look at the Euros and see what you think.......
 
Quote from Frank Thomas:

Young Trader,

Anybody have any thoughts on what im doing here with the markets or just general comments about the journal? Hell I would even take some critisism from somebody lol! I would like to here from some long term readers of this journal and have them give there opinion on either my trades or the journal itself.

Just thought i would let you know i am really impressed with your knowledge of trading and the markets considering your age!!! Keep it up!!!

I saw that you were on the "eurodollar spread" thread, I trade Eurodollars and think it is a pretty interesting product to trade.....so take a look at the Euros and see what you think.......
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Frank,

Thanks for the compliments! It makes me feel good when I get posts about people reading and enjoying the journal. Its hard for most in this industry to take me very serious because of my age. Its good to be put on a level playing field with all the rest of the traders and not be discriminated due to my age.

Yes I find eurodollar spreads very interesting but sadly do not know very much about financial instruments or how you are suppose to trade them. My main focus over the last 2 years has been on physical commodity futures (grains, softs, energy....things like that). Coming from a farm background I think it gives me a little advantage knowing the ins and outs of physical cash markets.
 
Got coffee up about .2. Kind of a fluke this morning because every other contract month is down except march (maybe its just my bad luck lol). Looking at 131.5 as next resistance. If broken then we are headed to 132. After this I will have already exited my positions lol! But really this isn't a joking matter...this market should be breaking by now but its not. Brazils crop estimates were a non event, the brazilian weather is ideal for the budding trees, vietnam is having a near record crop of robusta. I mean I just don't see why it continues to have the strength to trade in this upper range and test the upper levels. Anyway looking for more shorts if we break through 128 and then 122.

Cotton up about .35 I think and was within .01 of the 65 mark on the overnight session. My money says they try to push for that 65 one more time today and when they do I will short the market there. Then I will look for more shorts to be added after we have broken through the 63 mark. There is just a bit of bargain hunters in this market now buying cotton because its "oversold".

Sugar up about .02, trading at around 993. I am starting to get really bullish on this market. Like I said everyday that we can stay above 990 gives us new strength but we eventually need to break 1000 to give us that big burst of momentum. With 1000 broken next stop is 1020 and then 1080. Might add more longs today.

Good Trading Everyone
 
WOW what a day today!!!! This has been probably the most exciting day I have ever experienced in the markets (notice how I didn't say darkest day......cough cough bean trade).

Sugar rallied hard today breaking through the 1000 resistance point I talked about. I went long 10 contracts at 995 anticipating this break through. My reasoning was that since sugar is such a low leverage contract (each contract doesn't control much sugar and each point only worth 11.20). I figured I should make it at least worth my while. Really though 12 contracts in sugar is just about the same type of money as a contract of coffee. If sugar rises 1 point you only make or lose $134 on 12 contracts. I am going to start to call it the "Broker's Commodity" lol. So im sitting here long 12 contracts at an average of 993 and we bust through the 1000 mark and start to march towards the NEXT big mark of 1020. We did not make it there but closed at 1015 on the high I believe!!!!! Would not suprise me if we took a little off the sugar tomorrow after this big rally but if we continue to hold the 1000 mark then this thing is GOLDEN!!! Next level after 1020 is 1080.

Coffee sucks!!! Out of both the contracts at 132. $1125 loss there. I said it before and I will say it again everytime I average up or down I get beat over the head with the trade! I only should add to positions when the market starts to go my way and only then. I mean look at my lumber trade and now this sugar trade.....I took on more contracts as the price went in my favor. If we hold 132 next stop is 134 then 137. I am still bearish coffee but fundies are mixed. Bean stocks bullish/weather bearish.

Shorted 1 cotton today at 65 and took profit at 64.50. Another $250 profit today there. Nice little day trades taking place in cotton. I will keep doing this same thing until be break through the 63 mark which should take us down to 60.

all and all a very good day except with the coffee but you can't win em all!
 
Sugar up about .06 again this morning everyone. Testing the 1020 level and looks to break above it. If we can hold 1020 there is no doubt in my mind we are going to 1080. I think I might add more contracts around the 1020 mark during the day. India came out yesterday and said they are going to export 3 million tons of sugar this year compared to the normal 1 million. Wow thats a lot of sugar! Fundies are bearish but I think sugar is going to continue to experience this new fund interest. 2008 is going to be a good year for sugar imo.

Coffee up .70 this morning. Im a buyer on pullbacks to probably around 132. Brazilian stocks are at record lows and consumption is expected to increase 9%. Although the crops look like they are in good condition with vietnam harvesting a great crop and brazil's looking good also, that is not what everyone is trading off of so thats not what im going to trade off.

Cotton up a little this morning. USDA report out today (I believe at 730). To be honest I think no matter what kind of news we see cotton is not going higher....at least not very high. I will have to see what the report says but after that im probably a seller at 65 and then again at 63.

Looking at a possible short in jan oj also.

Good Trading
 
Well its a 2 hour late start today for school because of all the snow we got here. So im taking advantage!

Long 10 more sugar at 10.20. Average is now 22 contracts at 10.05. This thing is going higher imo. Probably over extending myself here but I feel good about sugar.

Cotton starting to fall apart. I will talk about the usda report tonight. In the mean time looking for shorts at 63.

Coffee.....well......its coffee lol!
 
Great day today! Man I love sugar! Out of all 22 contracts at 1030. $6160 profit!! I about didn't take the money and wanted to keep holding on but my gut (along with rsi) says we are oversold here and due for a little pullback. Possibly to 1020 and then I will probably get long again if we can hold that level.

Now to the cotton report. Pretty much no suprises here. U.S. production 18.99 million bales, thats up 130,000 bales. Ending stocks increased 100,000 million bales to 7.7 million. World ending stocks were also increased. Hard to believe some actually thought this would be a bullish report! There is no reason for cotton to move higher....at least not until the end of the year. Major resistance is 65 and our support is 63. Im looking to get short BIG this market if we can break through that 63 mark with strength.

Coffee closed on its lows today at 132.55. This market is messed up right now. I still am a buyer probably around the 132 mark though. After breaking through 132 we have great support (or at least we should) at this level if we retest it.
 
Just figuring the p/l for the journal so far. $15905 is total profit on the journal!!! A near 160% return so far. Things have just kind of clicked this year. I remember last year (my first year in commodities) I struggled to just not lose money. All and all this has been quite a year. I have learned so much since starting this journal. Its nice to have a place to just talk about the market and your trades and what you should of done better/what you did well. This journal lets me go back and look at the trades I made and pick out my strengths and weaknesses. I really appreciate all of you who read this journal and I hope I give back some information to you in the process.

Lets see if we can't make these returns even better before the end of the year!:)
 
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