Young trader, looking for advice regarding future

[Aew]

Quote from lindq:

Sorry to say that your results have no value unless you've traded through at least a few market cycles.

And at your age, it would seem that you haven't.

Put up some good numbers during a major market correction and periods of extreme volatility, and you may get a seat at the table.

I know backtesting means nothing, as it does not account for the huge psychological factor of trading, but I have used forex tester 2 to backtest many years of data, in which case, my strategy has always been profitable.

In fact, I have never cared, nor noticed any of these changes you speak of. I simply trade Price Action and what I see on the charts.

Volatility, bad market conditions, or whatever you want to call it make no difference to my trading. I don't even take notice of it. I simply trade what is playing out on the charts, and stay out during high impact news events. The rest is irrelevant.

 

[Aew]

Quote from newwurldmn:

Trading as a career is not about performance. It's about confidence. The person handing you money to trade for them must have confidence that you will steward their capital appropriately.

Returns are only one facet of building this confidence. An 18 year old highschool dropout who claims to make 15%/year risking 1% per trade doesn't inspire confidence.

15% monthly returns are likely unsustainable; lack of education means you probably don't have the critical reasoning skills to understand risk management, and being 18 implies you lack the maturity to understand what you are doing.

Thank your for taking the time to respond to my thread. I appreciate it.


It seems there are a lot of people who are skeptical, and choose to treat me as any other 18 year old, which is completely understandable and anticipated.


Now, regarding your criticism regarding my returns and money/risk management.

I fail to see how 15% a month is unstable. I do not put limitations on my profits. The only limitations I have are those that the market sets forth.

In other words, I only take valid setups (in relation to my strategy), and never go "searching" for a trade, when it is not there. If the market does not give me a valid, high probability setup for me to trade, then it is simple, I will NOT trade.

If, however, the market presents me with valid, high probability setups, I will take them. It is just that simple.

CAPITAL PRESERVATION IS #1.


Regarding my risk and money management.

I only risk 1% of my capital per trade. You will begin to understand why I do this momentarily.

I only take high probability setups. I have a very good win rate. I do not know the exact %, but it has been good enough to not give me any significant DD, beyond a 3-4%, and that is rare.

My Reward:risk for every trade must be at least 3:1, or I will not take it.

It is not uncommon for me to have trades that produce 10:1 Reward:risk ratio.


With this kind of R:R, hit rate, and risk per trade, the chances of going bust are extremely low, as long as psychology stays in check. The only way I can go bust is if I fail psychologically, which Is something I believe I continue to control very well.



I am confident in my proven statistical edge, and that is why, regardless of a few losing trades here and there, I do not care. In the end, I will end up positive. Mark Douglas (Author of "Trading in the Zone") explains this concept extremely well. In fact, better than anyone else I have ever witnessed.


This is a psychological game. Its as simple as that.

 

[Aew]

And regarding my duration of study each day, I am being completely serious, and I do not regret it at all. I am here looking for counsel, not to waste my time lying to people over the internet.

I believe my burning passion for what I do, my extreme determination to succeed, and excellent work ethic is what has fast-tracked my knowledge and success beyond what others would have likely experienced within the same amount of time as me.

Not to say that there aren't others who achieved a much higher level of success, and much faster (which there obviously is), but would I be where I am now If I had not studied 15+ hours a day for as long as I have? Undoubtedly, no.

I do not regret my hard work at all, and will continue to work hard.

 

[Aew]

Quote from Brighton:

Right. 15 hours a days is not sustainable. Set aside an hour or two a day to chase women and an hour or two to study for the Australian equivalent of a G.E.D. Then enroll in night school (university). As others have noted, regardless of performance (and six months is nothing) you need some kind of degree, or at least you need to be working toward one, before anyone is going to give you a second look.

The competition can waste their time with women.

And while they waste their time, I will be improving, and getting better.

A common question people ask is, what sets you apart from everyone else?

Everyone says "My work ethic, blah, blah, bullshit".

This is what sets me apart from everyone else. And unlike when most others say it, it is not bullshit. I follow through and do not procrastinate.

 

[Aew]

Quote from smallStops:

What one should expect from an 18 year old ?
- a lot of energy
- a real passion for trading.
This is a fresh mind to be moulded.

It is really encouraging to read comments like this.

It is comforting to see that someone believes in you, in a world where nobody does.

Thank you.

 

[Aew]

Quote from drownpruf:

You're obviously overqualified to work in investment banking, but send a quick note (including your original post) to l.blankfein@gs.com as I am certain they are looking for new directors and partners.

I did not mean it like that. I meant that is not my end-game.

If I could get an unpaid job cleaning the toilets and getting the lunch of the traders at Goldman Sachs, I would do it in a heartbeat, make no mistake.

Or any Investment Bank/HF for that matter.

Just so I could be around the traders and get a glimpse of experience from them, it would all be worth it. Or to show them my extreme work ethic.

 

[drownpruf]

Quote from Aew:

The competition can waste their time with women.

And while they waste their time, I will be improving, and getting better.

A common question people ask is, what sets you apart from everyone else?

Everyone says "My work ethic, blah, blah, bullshit".

This is what sets me apart from everyone else. And unlike when most others say it, it is not bullshit. I follow through and do not procrastinate.

It makes you compulsive, nothing else. Mindless effort is mindless (tautology). Everyone here thought they were the shit at 18. The fact is that you could be handed the greatest edge in the World and you would fuck it up, guaranteed. You don't have the maturity not to.

I don't think for a second that you're profitable. GO TO SCHOOL and learn to program. All you've proven here is that you lack basic common sense.

 

[Aew]

Quote from drownpruf:

It makes you compulsive, nothing else. Mindless effort is mindless (tautology).

Every moment I study is a conscious effort. I enjoy what I do, and I want to do it. I like the fact that I can watch the charts, switch to any time frame, and analyse the probability of outcomes that could potentially lead to making profits.

 

[drownpruf]

Quote from Aew:

.

CAPITAL PRESERVATION IS #1.

Says he, the moment before he blows up. Dude, let it go. Nobody here is going to tell you what you want to here to drive your addiction; that you should just trade as a dropout. Do it and prove us all wrong!

 

[Aew]

Quote from drownpruf:

I'll tell you my story that will save you a lot of time. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not a 40yo that is trolling the forums.

I started trading in my late teens. My dad was a retail, supply-chain exec who started trading on the floor of the cboe trading the stock received when he retired in his early 50s. He wasn't a good trader but knew how to sell puts with a lot of leverage and made millions leading into the '87 crash.

I got interested in trading in my teens after my dad's blowup and would scan the papers for cheap verticals/share proxies. I did well enough that my parents gave me $60k on my 18th birthday to trade volatility. I tripled it in the first year, doubled the second and paid back the principal w/interest. I wasn't old enough to hold the account in my own name so dad opened another Schwab account.

I can't recall the date but I spent months researching the upcoming decision on the Air Force ATF contract award. I was certain that GD would win the contract and I put literally 100% of my net liq in ATM calls on GD shares. I had no idea as to the vola I paid. They won the contract and the shares dropped a buck or two on the news. I was out 50% overnight. Six figures gone.

My point is that every kid your age is stupidly overconfident. I started undergrad at 16yo with a near-perfect SAT and a Westinghouse. I actually had an edge and still managed to fuck it sideways.

Reading charts for 15 hours a day is not an edge.

I posted a reply to this previously, but it did not post it for some reason, so I will try again.

I do not mean this at all in any offensive way. I am not trying to be rude at all, nor imply that I am more intelligent than you.


The reason you lost is blatantly obvious to me, and it would be blatantly obvious to any professional trader (Not saying I am professional at all).

You plain and simple gambled.

You ignored all your rules (if you had any in the first place).

There was no money management involved. No risk management either.

You went 50/50 on something in which you had NO statistical edge.

You did exactly what people do on blackjack. You went 50/50 and put everything on black.


I am not saying this at all to be rude, or implying that I am more intelligent than you in other areas whilst you were that age, but I am far more intelligent when it comes to money management and risk management.

What you did was simply blatant gambling, and you paid the price for it, plain and simple. There is nothing else to be learned from this. It was obvious you had no business trading real money in the first place.