Quote from asiaprop:
are you REALLY THAT DUMB? The bet was not about me getting 75k if I win the bet. The bet was that I ONLY HAVE DOWNSIDE.
Where did you get that idea? Both me and schizo are going to be risking $75k if we agree to terms and then can't come up with the track record we claim.
A bet is a pretty standard proposition - two people put up a stake, and the loser pays their stake to the winner. It's two-sided risk, not one-sided. Only having you on the hook would be totally unfair.
That's why we are (or were) negotiating just as hard as you for the precise terms of the bet. Why should we just let you name any conditions you feel like, and have to jump through hoops on your say so, when we have $75k of our own cash on the line too? If I'm putting up $75k then the least I expect is for someone to stick to basic ethical standards like keeping private communication private, acting like a trustworthy person (i.e. the type of person I would expect to stick to a bet, rather than wiggle out on technicalities).
Even if you negotiated in good faith, you've been rather naive here and made some totally inaccurate assumptions, which unfortunately just make you seem like a flake. It's actually quite insulting that you assumed we weren't risking any cash.
Unfortunately, because of how you've conducted yourself, I just don't feel comfortable trusting you either to keep my info private, or to actually pay up if you do get proven wrong. To go through 10 year old statements line by line to isolate the daytrades is going to take a full audit which is not cheap, and even then it's not 100% proof, you can always raise a bit of doubt as to what was overnight P&L etc. I'd only do that if I am very confident you're a stand up guy who will pay once I deliver the goods.
Also, since you don't believe us, I'd just ask a simple question - why would we risk $75k if we don't have the performance to back it up? In that case it would be all downside, no upside for us. If someone is actually proposing a meaningful wager, based on information that they have access to and you don't, then generally they are very confident that they will win. People don't volunteer 5 figure bets when they know they will lose. You are at a huge informational disadvantage because we know our records and you have no clue what they are. So, it was a sucker move to take the bet - anyone can think over the conditional probabilities and work that out.