You are more likely to become a top Hollywood actor or popstar than profitable trader

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Quote from crgarcia:

Everybody knows rich and famous Hollywood actors and popstars.
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The comparison with trading might be valid since both can be considered a form of art. A real good trader who uses intuition too is like an artist...

But even if you tell to an inspiring actor that chances of him/her becoming an Oscar nominee or a very well paid actor is very slim, that won't stop him/her to try to live the dream and try out acting.

And for incentives, Charlie Sheen just signed a contract for 1.8 million per episode of his sitcom.... :)
 
true, but most aspiring actors, I would guess, are well aware of the probabilities to become one, and they are well aware of the opportunity costs as well as expenses it takes to even get trained.

In contrast, most day traders have no inkling about the risk they expose themselves and their family/loved ones to, are not aware what huge opportunity costs they are paying (by not going to college, for those coming out of high school, or others who quit their profession and almost destroy all bridges behind them) and what the chances of success are (because most brokers and wanna-be day traders lie about their track record, out of self-interest or denial).

Thats a huge difference, in my opinion.



Quote from Pekelo:

The comparison with trading might be valid since both can be considered a form of art. A real good trader who uses intuition too is like an artist...

But even if you tell to an inspiring actor that chances of him/her becoming an Oscar nominee or a very well paid actor is very slim, that won't stop him/her to try to live the dream and try out acting.

And for incentives, Charlie Sheen just signed a contract for 1.8 million per episode of his sitcom.... :)
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Well, you might have a point, but if they don't study the chosen field before they decide to become a trader, whose fault is it really? Maybe 20 years ago you had been right, but nowadays with the internet and unlimited info, they should know it isn't a cakewalk. After studying the field they can and should have realistic expectations...

There is one positive difference though:

To be a well paid and/or accomplished actor you need huge luck and knowing the right people too. Thus you need more than just your own good skill. And there are lots of very good actors who don't make a good living with their exceptional skills.

On the other hand you as a trader needs to be good only on your own. (of course a decent broker helps too) But the bottomline is that you don't need to depend on others and circumstances to achieve your goals.

And that is a huge difference...
 
... arrggghhh...

For the sake of an IM (not PMs) I got... I'm going to make one thing clear...

The term, Prop. Trader, is being over-used. Prop Traders are traders who trade the firm's capital. Prop. firms are firms that hire traders who trade their capital. These days, most prop. firms are what we call Arcades. You pay up to play the game....

Back in the days, during the Internet Bubble, we had firms like WorldCo and Schonfeld who hired people to trade their own capital. I started out in a firm ran by a former WorldCo trader, cleared by Andover (now Assent)... and we all considered Prop. Traders as people who traded the firm's capital. The second you put up any capital of any kind, you are NOT a prop trader. At least, within my book.

asiaprop is somewhat different... he's considered an institutional prop. trader. Actually, considering the history of proprietary trading... his background is a true/old school prop. trader. I didn't know the dude while I was at the firm but I knew the team he was trading with and... it's far beyond the retail level (I've never met the dude but there's nothing but respect for the team he was with... really....)... Me? I was a semi-prop, because I was managing my own and the firm's capital, in-house, for latency and other perks that comes along with coming into their office early in the morning (nothing illegal... I wanted super low commish/leverage-so to speak/IT access)

That all said... next with "Prop. Trading" from a "public level"...

-------------------

I can somewhat understand why there's a major clash between asiaprop and the rest of ET who's retail oriented. It's 2 different worlds... and it's somewhat surprising that there hasn't been much "TRUE Day trader" coming in and narrowing the gap. And honestly... from my definition... most of the guys in here wouldn't be considered a TRUE Daytrader.

So a little history lesson...

About 15 years ago... the first thing I learned was the concept of what we called "Leaders/Laggers"... later on John Murphy called it "Intermarket Behavorial Patterns"... these days they call it, "Co-itegration". To be more specific...

We would follow the SP(Big Spooz) and then we would follow the 3 Gorillaz (MSFT, INTC, CSCO)... finally we would follow the smaller correlated/industry stocks like QLGC, BRCM, QCOM, BRCD etc. etc. Back in the days, the markets weren't as efficient as it is now, and it wasn't hoarded by Stat. Arb firms... so there were plenty of visually/tradable delay between how the 3 tiers of stocks moved. SP and the 3 Gorillaz were the leaders who moved before the smaller stocks... We'd be following the leaders to determine the strength and direction of the market. Let's say... MSFT and INTC broke out of some resistance... we would confirm that SP has done the same (meaning it's strong)... we would trade the smaller stocks who ends up catching up the breakout of some resistance.

We rarely used any kind of technical indicator but we did interpret chart patterns like SP would be a double top and MSFT would be making triple... If both stocks start breaking down, we'd start entering the Laggers, considering that they are on the swing top. As weird as it seems from the current market, it was extremely viable back in the days. And the firm (and a bunch of us trader) made loads of cash with this back in the days, along with a bunch of other EDGES that were viable at the time. As an example, $$$$ got a lot more consistent and larger if you start becoming efficient with the Level 2. (Back my starting days... things were a lot simpler with Axes)

If you can test it... check it out... it's NASDAQ Arb Heaven...

Anyways... the general concept is still around but trading like above AS-IS doesn't work. Things have gotten a bit complicated with Quantitative Analysis and a clearer indication via Statistical Analysis.

Also, there's always been good props and bad props. Looking back at Schony and WorldCo, the firms have provided the traders an edge where they have an advantage over becoming profitable. On the flip side we had Empire Trading (it's not around anymore so I'll mention their name) who act like arcades these days. Considering the time I've been around "Day Trading"... it's still alive and well. The difference is that the markets have changed and it's become a lot of Quantitative where it makes it hard for a VISUAL confirmation. I've somewhat adapted with the environment considering that I've experienced the change real-time. These days, I'd say Optiver, Jane Street, and others to be in the similar nature... as I mentioned... things become a little more Quantitative than it used to be...

Don't get me wrong... there's plenty of other "strategies" that we traded. The above is only an "relatively" understandable edge that was around. There were SOES and Odd-lot Bandits (well... SOES had a glitch where odd lots were execute before the full 100 share orders... this enabled us to override the FIFO and made LOADS with it while it lasted...) but that's another story...

Going back to topic... most of the "Day Traders" have ZERO understanding of what an edge is. I've experienced and gained a strong understanding of an edge from Day 1. Edges like the one I mentioned are still around but they're executed by the Top Props., you rarely hear about them in public until they've been dried/used up.

Another thing is, if it is considered an art. It means that they are limited to people can and can't. In terms of business, it's too unreliable for a TRUE prop to offer to their traders. If an average(I'm average and not so smart) minded person can't make money, it's not worth trading regardless of it being automated or not. Seriously... goto IKEA and buy some furniture. If only 5% of the people can build it, would you buy it, even more sell it?

I don't deny talent and luck, but as "A DAY TRADER" if my 7 year old cousin can't make money, it ain't an edge. Even more I automate my trades... my criterion/management is a lot more strict than what most consider.

That all said... I careless about what people call themselves like those Sales Traders calling themselves traders... but I wouldn't consider them as the same with me within my standards...

I fast typed through the whole long post so my thoughts are bit scattered but my point was...

As with any Bell Curve there are outliers. I agree that 95% of the traders end up losing. They have no sense of what an edge is. Most people don't understand what goes in the inside of a good prop. past and now, acting like wanna-bees.

It's a zero sum game and the distribution between winners/losers are not equal.

Finally...

TEST EVERYTHING.
 
asiaprop with all respect to you sir, why are you backing out?

it seems schizo did everything possible to make the wager happen, he sent you his personal details his lawyers number even offered you to choose an eschow service of your choice.

in all fairness it appears you're just making excuses to back out.

its a pity, I thought you really were a bank trader and was looking forward to the outcome of the wager.
 
I did not back out, I clearly mentioned I want to do it exclusively through an escrow service, I have no interest to deal with lawyers, jurisdictions, or fly to his place to verify his identity as schizo in a a slightly childish fashion suggested. By the way, I offered the choice of escrow service to him first, simply in order for him to trust that I am not setting up any sort of shady bet. Through this service everything is handled, from signing a bet agreement, through the determination of the outcome by checking verifiable broker statements all the way to the exchange of the payout. What I am suspecting at this moment, and schizo hinted at it though he did not specify in detail, is that he is not in possession of his claimed 10 years of trading performance, broken down by day trades. I use Interactive Brokers for over 15 years now and can download each and every single trade confirm or broker statement off their website. Older ones are archived, something, I would expect, everyone is also doing for tax or other purposes. I would generally not reply to accusations such as yours but I cannot accept to be accused of wanting to back out of a bet (though schizo already disqualified himself by rejecting to send his full contact information AFTER I gave him notice and sufficient time to respond in order to change his mind).


Quote from fugly:

asiaprop with all respect to you sir, why are you backing out?

it seems schizo did everything possible to make the wager happen, he sent you his personal details his lawyers number even offered you to choose an eschow service of your choice.

in all fairness it appears you're just making excuses to back out.

its a pity, I thought you really were a bank trader and was looking forward to the outcome of the wager.
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Quote from asiaprop:

then you should ready much more clearly: Here is what I wrote! It said very clearly that it is a one sided bet: You show me your track record, if you cannot match the required returns then you stand to lose nothing other than proving me right, if I lose I pay out money to you (I adjusted the payout because you begged me to). I mean, English is not my native language but I think it is crystal clear what I meant. You seemed to not even understand what this was all about , lol!!!!



1) I take that risk, PM me, I even pay for your first class airline ticket and hotel to the city in Asia I live. You made the offer, I publicly invite you.

P.S.: This offer applies to anyone with a 20%+ annual return track record over 10 years who wants to take a free vacation in one of the coolest cities in the world.

2) But hey, I am not a dick, so only for you we make it 7 years so that before me and everyone else you can claim your grand price, given you show me that you made an annualized 20% return over the 7 years which you claimed you traded.

3) I mentioned the terms very clearly, so dont fool around and pretend I was not crystal clear. I mentioned that for you I would lower it to 7 years track record with an annualized 20% return over the 7 years observation period. If you still show interest then go ahead and PM me, nothing of what I said changed.

4) Fair points though I never intended to offer cash in exchange for seeing account statements, and I keep it that way.

So it's very clear, Ghost would need to show a 7 year track record with a geometric average of at least 20% annualized per year after omitting all withdrawals and deposits. Risking to state the obvious, only day trades are included in the return calculation (Ghost can chose a time zone on which the 24 hour time frame is based within which trades need to be opened and closed). More details later, given he agrees.

Obviously, when going through an Escrow service I would require a copy of his ID plus broker statements with his name on it. He will get the same ID of mine and my own broker statements showing that I most likely beat his track record (a freebie, and I would be surprised if he had a better record than I had, though my trades are almost all longer-term trades).

5) You, schizo wrote: C'mon, what have you got to lose? I'll show you the past 10 years of my statements for a small fee. That's what you wanted, wasn't it?

You don't believe that I can do this. You think I'm bluffing, don't you? Then, think again.
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You obviously use ET for more than entertainment.

dude, GET A LIFE and spend your energy in a more constructive manner, you may find your life more interesting
 
Quote from asiaprop:

I did not back out, I clearly mentioned I want to do it exclusively through an escrow service, I have no interest to deal with lawyers, jurisdictions, or fly to his place to verify his identity as schizo in a a slightly childish fashion suggested. By the way, I offered the choice of escrow service to him first, simply in order for him to trust that I am not setting up any sort of shady bet. Through this service everything is handled, from signing a bet agreement, through the determination of the outcome by checking verifiable broker statements all the way to the exchange of the payout. What I am suspecting at this moment, and schizo hinted at it though he did not specify in detail, is that he is not in possession of his claimed 10 years of trading performance, broken down by day trades. I use Interactive Brokers for over 15 years now and can download each and every single trade confirm or broker statement off their website. Older ones are archived, something, I would expect, everyone is also doing for tax or other purposes. I would generally not reply to accusations such as yours but I cannot accept to be accused of wanting to back out of a bet (though schizo already disqualified himself by rejecting to send his full contact information AFTER I gave him notice and sufficient time to respond in order to change his mind).
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What i mean to say after reading everything that happened was it "appears" so. I don't know the private corespondence that took place between you and schizo, so I'm not passing judgment.

anyway thx for your explanation and sorry if i offended your sentiments .... that was snot my intention, so please dont get upset.

i was just really looking forward to the wager.
 
bottom line as usual everything is simple in life but the devil is in the details. just goes to show that cliches are true.
 
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