Noted.
YM in a Can
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
Noted.
Referring to your "no confirmation just MIT with reverse or BE", what is BE? Breakeven or Breakout???
Also, did you mention anywhere what is your formula for the pivots?
May I also know how long you have been trading? because you said that you do not even have a charting service. And what makes you want to go live with assisted trading this YM in the can? Have you not come across other equally profitable methods that interest you before?
I am just trying to understand your intention better.
Thanks.
Also, did you mention anywhere what is your formula for the pivots?
May I also know how long you have been trading? because you said that you do not even have a charting service. And what makes you want to go live with assisted trading this YM in the can? Have you not come across other equally profitable methods that interest you before?
I am just trying to understand your intention better.
Thanks.
One idea is to double the contracts at the H3 or L3 levels as their winrate seems higher than the breakouts(H4, L4) so far.
But there is not enough data yet, but it is good to have a few options in the back of the mind.
What do you folks think?
Michael B.
But there is not enough data yet, but it is good to have a few options in the back of the mind.
What do you folks think?
Michael B.
Michael,
Maybe you should leave it as it is because you don't want to optimise too much. Did you mention anywhere why you only enter limit at H3 and L3. What about H2,H1,L2,L1? And what is the total profit to date since starting this thread? How about any backtested results prior to this thread? Has the results held up?
Thanks
Maybe you should leave it as it is because you don't want to optimise too much. Did you mention anywhere why you only enter limit at H3 and L3. What about H2,H1,L2,L1? And what is the total profit to date since starting this thread? How about any backtested results prior to this thread? Has the results held up?
Thanks
Well, I enter at H4 and L4 too. I was thinking that H1, H2, L1, L2 might be good for the night session. What do you think?
No backtesters have offered to spend their time. I have been PM'd by one person who said this type of system merely breaks even. In my opinion if there is proper money management (not trade management) with a breakeven type of system this is a good thing, netting less drawdown than a robust system. Now, I do not mean money management like Kelly Value or FRM, as the drawdown increases with the profit. I mean money management based on Price Action. There are higher probability trades that could utilize double contract plays on a breakeven system that would help the system net a nice smooth yield curve with very little down-edges. I am looking for a nice smooth slope up without deep hickups.
I cannot email the spreadsheet for the live trades here as the complete one is too big for ET. It won't fit as an attachment. Send me a PM with your email, and I will email you the spreadsheet. There is not enough data to answer the question if the results held up.
There have been 19 trades netting $1,960.00 not including slippage or commish over the last 9 trading days.
There have been 11 wins netting $3,380.00 which equates to a winrate of 57%.
The total losses equal $1,960.00 netting an Avg Win to Avg Loss Ratio of 1.73:1
The Profit to Loss Ratio equals 2.38:1
This is only 9 days of data so it means nothing and does comprise a large enough sampling. 3 years is needed.
I would like to thank you for your good questions and I can hear you are an advanced trader. I welcome any advice you have.
Most of these issues have already been discussed in this thread, but I realize it is time consuming to read all that, so I do not mind covering this ground again. In fact bringing it forward in the thread so that newcomers do not have to scroll through so much, is a good thing. So again, I thank you for your questions.
Michael B.
No backtesters have offered to spend their time. I have been PM'd by one person who said this type of system merely breaks even. In my opinion if there is proper money management (not trade management) with a breakeven type of system this is a good thing, netting less drawdown than a robust system. Now, I do not mean money management like Kelly Value or FRM, as the drawdown increases with the profit. I mean money management based on Price Action. There are higher probability trades that could utilize double contract plays on a breakeven system that would help the system net a nice smooth yield curve with very little down-edges. I am looking for a nice smooth slope up without deep hickups.
I cannot email the spreadsheet for the live trades here as the complete one is too big for ET. It won't fit as an attachment. Send me a PM with your email, and I will email you the spreadsheet. There is not enough data to answer the question if the results held up.
There have been 19 trades netting $1,960.00 not including slippage or commish over the last 9 trading days.
There have been 11 wins netting $3,380.00 which equates to a winrate of 57%.
The total losses equal $1,960.00 netting an Avg Win to Avg Loss Ratio of 1.73:1
The Profit to Loss Ratio equals 2.38:1
This is only 9 days of data so it means nothing and does comprise a large enough sampling. 3 years is needed.
I would like to thank you for your good questions and I can hear you are an advanced trader. I welcome any advice you have.
Most of these issues have already been discussed in this thread, but I realize it is time consuming to read all that, so I do not mind covering this ground again. In fact bringing it forward in the thread so that newcomers do not have to scroll through so much, is a good thing. So again, I thank you for your questions.
Michael B.
A primitive equity curve could be found here if you plug in the numbers from the above post.
http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
Michael B.
P.S. Folks his handle is LoosenUp, I am not telling him that. lol
http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
Michael B.
P.S. Folks his handle is LoosenUp, I am not telling him that. lol
Mr. Loosen up this is not optimizing? This is a Money Management example. Get your terms straight.
Michael B.
P.S. A system without Money Managment is doomed to fail.
P.S.S. If you have as low as a 20% winrate you can still be profitable with good money mangement (not trade management).
Michael B.
P.S. A system without Money Managment is doomed to fail.
P.S.S. If you have as low as a 20% winrate you can still be profitable with good money mangement (not trade management).
Sorry for the late reply, Like to enjoy weekends
. I am a discretionary trader and use other filters to enter trade, . The exact way I trade, I am not going to reveal that, but I use only reverse/ bo, and use other points as buffer not to trade.Any system if it is 50% (break-even) profitable with good money management like risk/rew- 1:2 or 1:1.5 and take money out of the trade, and trade with net profit in longer time it will be successful.
Rather, I shall provide you some more informations how another trader trade, it is in the internet, he calls it 'Cappello' numbers.
" These numbers had to be slightly modified in order to comply with Copyrite laws. The modification made little change in performance when properly applied. The source for the exact numbers is The Trader Handbook, if you are so inclined to search its current availability and cost. No promise of performance is made or implied.While decent, I was never able to duplicate the 67% consistency in the manual which was based upon a small sample.Likewise the calculations are similar to those used by many for Pivot points and the like.
First calculate Resistance :
Level 5 = Previous day high divided by previous day low multiplied by previous day settletment.R5
Level 4 = [Previous day high divided by previous day low] plus 1 and that quantity divided by 2 and then multiplied by previous day settlement. R4
Level 3 = Same as Level 4 except plus 3 and divide by 4. R3
Level 2 = Same as Level 4 except plus 5 and divide by 6. R2
Level 1 = Same as Level 4 except plus 10 and divide by 11. R1
Corresponding Support Calculations:
Level 5 = R5 - previous day settlement= X5 then Previous day
settlement - X5. S5
Level 4 = R4 - previous day settlement= X4 then Previous day
settlement - X4. S4
Level 3 = R3 - previous day settlement= X3 then Previous day
settlement - X3. S3
Level 2 = R2 - previous day settlement= X2 then Previous day
settlement - X2. S2
Level 1 = R1 - previous day settlement= X1 then Previous day
settlement -X1. S1
Key Points also modified for legality and via my observations.
A. One will make a decision to day trade any future contract purely on how its volatility was the day before.While this is simply the difference between the high and low, there are volatility point
values that are given in the manual that I can not legally give here. Needless to say you each can select high volatility days intuitively in observing various heavily traded indices and bonds.
B. One usually uses Level 3 and 4 to trade. The other Levels can come into play and experience will guide you.
C. The market must open between Level 3 R and S. One sells at Level 3 R and sets stop at level 4. One buys at Level 3 S and sets stop at Level 4 S.
D. There are many times when you can hit both sides of the trade.
E. If the market opens outside the range and then returns to it,
there is disgression whether you take the trade. I generally would not since the Rule has been violated . Others think differently.
F. I generally use the number 10 as a break out signal. That is if
the market opens 10 points above Resistance 4 it is a buy signal or if 10 points below Support 4 it is a sell signal.If you observe it,
you may choose what you thinks works.
For complete understanding, one should purchase the manual...but this outline is a good idea on how they work and if you are even interested.It took too much of my time to do this and various programs I had attempted to have built were never pure to the rules and calculations".
Michael,
I am no advanced trader but i like to exchange ideas and ask questions on things that I do not know. I think you got your terms mixed up here. Money management, as I understand, refers to that part of your trading plan which tells you how much to bet(buy/sell) as a percentage of your EQUITY. What you describe ie to sell double on limit orders on levels that you think have higher levels of success is part and parcel of your method, and it is not money management. Anyway, it is no big deal, just thought I clarify that.
Looking forward to your trades soon.
I am no advanced trader but i like to exchange ideas and ask questions on things that I do not know. I think you got your terms mixed up here. Money management, as I understand, refers to that part of your trading plan which tells you how much to bet(buy/sell) as a percentage of your EQUITY. What you describe ie to sell double on limit orders on levels that you think have higher levels of success is part and parcel of your method, and it is not money management. Anyway, it is no big deal, just thought I clarify that.
Looking forward to your trades soon.