Quote from jjgallow:
comanche...
I'm surprised not to see you on the oil threads...records are being set.
I revived your old "bottom picking" post....looks nice with $88 oil
I am a natural gas trader by profession. Our company rarely ever makes a trade in crude and we do it only when one of our producers wants to hedge. I follow it of course, but not to the degree I do natty. The Btu spread has been decoupled for so long now.
As far as oil is concerned, I am in the camp that this parabolic move will be short lived and is not beign fundamentally supported at the moment. Once w ebroke out to new highs, this thing has been heavily bid/defended by long funds squeezing the shorts, and is peeling away from the products. The cracks are horrible.
People seem to forget that next to fuels, plastics are the other major demand component for crude. as the consumer loses purchasing power for all that leaded plastic shit from china, demand will peel back from this sector as well. I know we are not going to buy a shitload of crap anymore for my kids at x-mas, we are going to have fewer more meaningful gifts this year.
Crude will eventually get to $100, but I don't believe it happens this leg or this year. We have a warmer than normal winter forecasted based on moderate to strong la nina analogs, and we will have record natural gas inventories for this winter. Heating oil will not have a large domestic demand this year and winter gas demand is slack. At the earliest, springtime may get your 100 print on true fuel demand. watch the cracks, they tell tales of the real situation.