XLE: Is It Totally Insane to SHORT it?

Your Best Guess on XLE

  • 1-2 Weeks: LONG, 2-3 Months LONG

    Votes: 10 58.8%
  • 1-2 Weeks: LONG, 2-3 Months SHORT

    Votes: 3 17.6%
  • 1-2 Weeks: SHORT, 2-3 Months LONG

    Votes: 2 11.8%
  • 1-2 Weeks: SHORT, 2-3 Months SHORT

    Votes: 2 11.8%

  • Total voters
    17
From the Hedge Fund Association, a white paper entitled: "Creating Alpha with Market Neutral Strategies"

" Market neutral investing is perhaps the purest form of alpha as, by definition, it removes exposure to market direction and produces alpha through security selection. It usually involves the simultaneous purchase of an undervalued security and short sale of an overvalued security. Thus, the return depends on the spread between the long and short positions. A bond market neutral strategy would hedge out interest rate risk, to ensure that gains from the long position, due to upward movements in bond prices, would be roughly offset by losses from the short position. Unlike traditional investing, which concentrates on absolute returns, or returns relative to a benchmark, market neutral returns depend on the spread or relative value between the securities bought and sold regardless of movements in
market direction. An equity market neutral portfolio is constructed
similarly, but this time exposure to beta, the sensitivity of the
portfolio’s movement to the general market, is hedged. A true
market neutral fund will have to balance the beta on the long and
the short side to hedge out stock market risk effectively. A market
neutral approach can be applied to various asset classes, such as
equities, government bonds or mortgage-backed securities and
forms the basis for several investment strategies: convertible
arbitrage and risk/merger arbitrage. "
 
Quote from bone:

If you wanted to short XLE, I would do it as a relative value spread play against one of the components within the basket that has been especially strong in the rally and that you would expect to continue to outperform the balance of the basket in a broad market sell-off.

My 2 cents.

how about a concrete example? pick a stock and we will watch stock/XLE spread for 1 month.

p.s. Bone, by my estimate you own me >$200 for turning my thread into your Ad campaign :)
 
Shortie, I like your enthusiasm.

I'm not going to completely break down a trade for you - my clients would be furious. I'll point you toward a path to enlightenment:

SLB and APA both have greater than a 98% positive correlation to XLE.
 
Last time crude got to $145ish, a couple DOE reports came out and showed that demand fell like a meteor from the heavens. The Summer driving season was non-existent and refineries were actually turning away supply and they almost stopped cracking gasoline. Several months later, we were trading at $35. Demand is not a constant, and I am sure that the producers were selling HEAVILY into the last rally which was purely a speculative financial bubble. The lesson was that Americans will stop driving with $4 gasoline.

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No "if true" about it. Which one holds a trend better ? Which one keeps you in the trade longer without getting shaken out ? Which one is easier to read ? Which one is cheaper to capitalize and leverage ? Which one is more consistent, month in and month out ?

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Quote from Maverick74:

So is it up too much yet?

as i mentioned in my opening post, the RSI divergence is still in place. there are maybe other signs of a possible top as well, not sure...
 
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