XLE: Is It Totally Insane to SHORT it?

[shortie]

Quote from bone:

... Your comments about market behavior and structure are impulsive, show a lack of experience in the art, and are always poorly supported by facts about technical price action or fundamental drivers.

Bone, even after your nasty attack on me I am offended because:

1. what you said is true
2. i was the first to provoke you with my statements.

so I hope we will keep our discussion here going about XLE (and advertise for Bone a little bit

Could you tell us more about your returns/drawdowns/leverage in those profitable 18 years?

I want to think more about SLB, APA, XLE before i post anything on that.

 

[shortie]

I DEFINITELY did not imply that you did something unethical. maybe it sounded like that but this is not what i meant.

they pay you, and you make risk-free return. they are already in the hole by the amount of money they paid you for your seminar. whether they will recoup that money or not later is a separate question. and to recoup that money they will RISK more money.

so for you it is a risk-free return, for them it is not. that's what i meant.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from shortie:

I DEFINITELY did not imply that you did something unethical. maybe it sounded like that but this is not what i meant.

they pay you, and you make risk-free return. they are already in the hole by the amount of money they paid you for your seminar. whether they will recoup that money or not later is a separate question. and to recoup that money they will RISK more money.

so for you it is a risk-free return, for them it is not. that's what i meant.

Are you implying that colleges are unethical for charging money for teaching students? Would it be better if Bone affiliated himself with a university and kept regular office hours?

Shortie, kids spend 150k for a degree that says markets are efficient now go work for the government. Bone's students spend a fraction of that to learn a skill that could feed them and their family for the rest of their life. Is it risky? Of course, all trading is risky. Buying a condo is risky. Starting a small business is risky. If there were no risk, there would be no upside.

This country is funny, people will spend 40k on a German sports car to impress their friends and neighbors, but won't spend 5k to 10k to develop a skill that actually allow them to buy that sports car. This is what America has become.

 

[shortie]

i have never said anything about unethical. i am just highlighting the difference between client/teacher and trader who takes his own risks.

sure it is like a college. one needs to figure out whether he should go to college. the same thing goes for taking lessons from Bone or anybody else.

how does one figure out if it is worth it?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from shortie:

i have never said anything about unethical. i am just highlighting the difference between client/teacher and trader who takes his own risks.

sure it is like a college. one needs to figure out whether he should go to college. the same thing goes for taking lessons from Bone or anybody else.

how does one figure out if it is worth it?

It's not too hard. How much did you make trading last year? How much did you lose trading last year? Do you want to be a profitable trader? Is Bone a magic pill? No and there may be better guys out there then Bone. But to make money at anything, you are going to have to pay one way or another. Pay with losses, pay with time, pay with frustration, lost marriages, stress, etc. Make no mistake about it, we all pay one way or another. I'm generally a proponent of knowledge in all forms. You may think you can buy it for free, but I assure you, it will cost you somewhere else.

 

[shortie]

personally, i am letting the market to educate myself because i believe it is the best teacher out there. it is costly and takes time, you are absolutely right about that!

 

[shortie]

"...Notice that the Hanging Man here occurred at new highs. This does not mean that XLE is going to head lower or that it has a greater chance of going lower than the other sectors. What is of interest is that there was selling pressure at the highs in a strong uptrend. The RSI at nearly 85 is another signal that corroborates the caution signal put out by the Hanging Man..."

http://dragonflycap.com/2011/02/bring-champagne-and-caviar-the-sell-off-is-over-right/

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from shortie:

"...Notice that the Hanging Man here occurred at new highs. This does not mean that XLE is going to head lower or that it has a greater chance of going lower than the other sectors. What is of interest is that there was selling pressure at the highs in a strong uptrend. The RSI at nearly 85 is another signal that corroborates the caution signal put out by the Hanging Man..."

http://dragonflycap.com/2011/02/bring-champagne-and-caviar-the-sell-off-is-over-right/

Busy chart! You have indicators on there that do the same thing.
One other thing, it would be better to use multi bar candlestick patterns, they tell a better picture of what is really going on.

 

[tradingjournals]

This nature of some comments on this thread remind me the comments in the thread on bonds towards end of August, when bonds were at the top. A number of people who were bullish at the time seem to be bullish in this thread as well, and use the exat same arguments/explanations. Both threads were also used as an opportunity to adverstise at the expense of the thread starter.

Disclaimer: I am not shortie, but I would rank shortie as the top member on this forum. Also, if I were searching for someone to assign money to and if shortie were to be available, it would be a no brainer decision for me whom I should choose

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from tradingjournals:

This nature of some comments on this thread remind me the comments in the thread on bonds towards end of August, when bonds were at the top. A number of people who were bullish at the time seem to be bullish in this thread as well, and use the exat same arguments/explanations. Both threads were also used as an opportunity to adverstise at the expense of the thread starter.

Disclaimer: I am not shortie, but I would rank shortie as the top member on this forum---Far better than any one selling his services in here. Also, if I were searching for someone to assign money to and if shortie were to be available, it would be a no brainer decision for me.

This goes down as bar none the funniest post on ET for 2011 so far. I know you didn't mean it that way, but it is what it is.

Thanks for the laugh.