Oil could go to 40 dollars. Even 30 dollars. Who knows. Look at the Goldman Sachs bubble of 2007? Fair value is somewhere around 80 dollars I imagine. Averaging down here is the way to go, for the long term....
Wow, oil stocks getting torched.
- Thread starter blakpacman
- Start date
whats the buy?
Today the news was quite amusing and provided for good entertainment value, where opinions were a dime a dozen. Some analysts were claiming that the Saudis won't cut production due to the firms that engage in the fracking business, others claimed that it was solely due to demand constraints. Projections were everywhere, "could we see a $50 handle?" claimed one anchor, yet another was saying "buying opportunity." They even talked about playing the ETFs that short oil (now?), tax loss selling, margin calls, blah blah blah.
Forget about all that crap, it's all noise. Just define your risk, and take it from there. And yes, averaging down at a 5 year low "could" be the home run play, looking back a year or two from now.
Agreed. It's a long-term bet (>2 year hold). Analogous to buying the S&P at 800 during the crash. Investors buy and hold. It's what they do. So lets average down on this biatch.
You know what's really amusing is that not one person predicted the price of oil plummeting, I remember a few weeks ago everyone saying that oil would see the 80's before it would see the 60's......now oil is in the 50's and this is when the game gets interesting, projects are going to shut down, billions that were going to be spent are now not going to be spent, all the oil fracking going on is fine at $80, $90, $100+ oil but under $60 and they will start cost cutting, some will shut down and the biggest in question that could really put heavy selling pressure on equities is the credit markets getting crushed...i read that 15-20% of the high yield debt market is exposed to the energy sector, this could cause major problems in the credit markets just like the sub prime fallout back in 2007-2008.
Now all you here from the cheerleaders is lower oil prices, yes well after the fact prices have dropped that's when they finally come out and scream that oil will average $65 a barrel, this is the same talking head who thought $85 was going to be the average just 2 months ago.
Now all you here from the cheerleaders is lower oil prices, yes well after the fact prices have dropped that's when they finally come out and scream that oil will average $65 a barrel, this is the same talking head who thought $85 was going to be the average just 2 months ago.
Haha etfs that short oil, of course, just buy some DWTI now at $90 up from mid $20's just a few months ago, what fools.
UWTI is under $7
"Fed Bubble Bursts in $550 Billion of Energy Debt: Credit Markets"
Saudi is not going to blink first (deep pocket & a lot of oil).
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-h...-143354747.html;_ylt=AwrBEiJWPIpULmUA3GiTmYlQ
Saudi is not going to blink first (deep pocket & a lot of oil).
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-h...-143354747.html;_ylt=AwrBEiJWPIpULmUA3GiTmYlQ
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Haha, ya these guys on TV are so funny to listen to. Yesterday one of these idiots (forget who) blamed the big down day in stocks on double short ETF's.
Wtf? Did they have leveraged short ETF's in 87 or 1929? Did they miss the 10% run up in the last 6 weeks?
If Junk crashes, it doesn't bode well for stocks.
And no one believes me when I say all the fed did with QE was create more asset bubbles....the reasoning oil is falling apart has every bit to do with QE.
Once the credit markets freeze up watch out....maybe this will push them to keep rates at 0% for another 5 years while they introduce QE 4 QE 5 and QE 6, what a fucking joke this economy is.