Wow, oil stocks getting torched.

Swan Noir said:
I agree with achilles 100%. The talking heads are simply worthless!!
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Absolutely. For the past 2 years, non-stop articles, 'Why we will never see sub 100 dollar oil again'. All kinds of justifications thrown at us: peak oil, Chinese demand, global recovery etc. Then boom. 63 dollar print in CL yesterday. Now? 'Saudis ramp up production, testing NA shale producers', 'global slowdown'. Nobody blinks. Nobody is held to account. Same in 2007. Same in 1999. Same shit.

Personally, I think FED tapering has something to do with it. FED balance sheet is a bit toppy, atm. If they begin to shrink, we could see further spill over into ES. God forbid we get a rate hike.

Great great long term buying opportunity in energy stocks.
 
achilles28 said:
Talk it could go as low as 40. Good time to average down....
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It seems highly unlikely that the Sudais would continue to pump at or even near the current rate if it were headed anywhere near that range. Virtually ever informed voice believes they have no desire to sell large quantities below 60. They still have enough of the world's daily supply to stop any slide in price. The have the power and I think the will to keep the price above 60.

I'm not saying we will not see a 58 print but I think the number of days it trades below 60 will be few and very far between.
 
achilles28 said:
Absolutely. For the past 2 years, non-stop articles, 'Why we will never see sub 100 dollar oil again'. All kinds of justifications thrown at us: peak oil, Chinese demand, global recovery etc. Then boom. 63 dollar print in CL yesterday. Now? 'Saudis ramp up production, testing NA shale producers', 'global slowdown'. Nobody blinks. Nobody is held to account. Same in 2007. Same in 1999. Same shit.

Personally, I think FED tapering has something to do with it. FED balance sheet is a bit toppy, atm. If they begin to shrink, we could see further spill over into ES. God forbid we get a rate hike.

Great great long term buying opportunity in energy stocks.
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Ya, it's all b.s. Remember when gold broke $1,900, they also said it was going to "break $2,000 and eventually go to $5,000." Now you're hearing "Gold is going to break $1,000 and go to $600."

Regarding energy, I agree, it's a good long term opportunity. Look at XLE (the ETF that tracks energy companies), draw a 5 year trendline on a monthly chart from the 2009 lows. It's approaching the line.

Could oil go to $60? Sure. Could it go back to $80? Sure. The only things that matter are your COST BASIS and TIME HORIZON. Everything else is just an opinion.

Disclosure: I have leaps on HAL, a vertical call spread on APA, and own XLE. The options of course have time decay, so I'll have to watch them more closely in 2015. XLE is an ETF, and not on margin, so I can hold the draw if needed, and add more later if energy stocks spike back up.
 
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