Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
Interesting analysis. You aren't the Bears' GM, are you?
To me, the most interesting point was the last one. Would Denver have made this move if there were harmony between the coach and QB? I think it would have been a tough sell, because the fans would go nuts the first time Orton missed a receiver or threw an INT. Would it make the Broncos a better team? I would say probably. Their D sucks big time, and two extra number ones could go a long way to making it decent. As you noted, no one wins giving up points like they did last year.
I see two flaws in your case for the trade. One, you are assuming Cutler will be a significant upgrade. I think he is an upgrade, but this not the NBA. A QB needs four things, in addition to talent, to thrive: a good line, a running game, good receivers and a good system. Cutler had them in Denver, at least to an extent. Most importantly he had factor four, a great offensive system run by a master coach. I don't see it in chicago. I see a mediocre line, average run game and limited receivers, plus a defensive coord for a coach who has struggled to put together an NFL-quality offense. No way he puts up comparable numbers to what he did in Denver.
Two, I think you omitted the best way to get a QB, ie pick up a veteran, like the titans did with Collins and Arizona did with Warner. Jeff Garcia was available. The idea of building with Cutler sounds good, but he will be nearly 30 before you can put a number one draft pick on the field. Your next two drafts have been gutted. Plus, when does Cutler's contract come up? He will have the team over a huge barrel, considering what they gave up for him. So goodby, salary cap room.
You made a compelling case for the need to have a franchise QB to build a dynasty. Interestingly however, none of those QBs came via a blockbuster trade.
I can understand where you are coming from to an extent. But, you missed some blatant facts to back your argument. First off, Denver went through five running backs last year due to injury and were down to their fullback, Peyton Hillis as their starting RB. So to say that Cutler had a good running game to compliment his passing game...not a chance. Defenses were dropping back extra LB's into pass coverage because the Broncos had no running game.
Secondly, the Bears have an established running game. Rookie RB Matt Forte was the 7th leading rusher in terms of total yards last season. And mind you, that was with defenses stacking the box because of Orton's inability to get the ball downfield. With Cutlers ability to scramble, avoid the pass rush (sacked only 11 times last season) and throw on the run, defenses will no longer be able to overplay the run.
This brings up another point. Cutler can buy more time for our receivers to open up routes because of his elusiveness. No, I do not dislike Kyle Orton, but you have to be fair in your assessment. He is immobile and a solid back up NFL QB who won't make many mistakes but won't win you many games either.
Cutler will make the Bears offense much more balanced and they will be very tough to gameplan against.
Going for the veteran...no thanks. I'll take a soon to be 26 year old pro bowler who has only begun to show what he can do.