Woods... Will He Surpass Nicklaus's 18 Majors?

Nice try, but half those guys were over the hill when Jack emerged.

Numbers don't tell the whole story either. Jack never teed it up when he wasn't the longest player in the field or at least in the conversation. Tiger used to have that advantage. No more. Guys like Bubba and Dustin Johnson laugh at Tiger's length. Look at the guys who have won majors recently. Bubba, Scott, Rose, Keegan Bradley, Phil, et al, they are all at least as long as Tiger and in most cases longer. He just is not that dominant. He has to putt lights out and get some breaks. It hasn't been happening.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Nice try, but half those guys were over the hill when Jack emerged.
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Actually, you aren't in the least bit correct about that. Everyone of those names in the list were either in their prime or the latter stages of their prime while Nicklaus was a professional...(let's say 1961 or 62 thru 1990).
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

It's an interesting question about Tiger using PEDs. He wasn't nearly as big back in the days when he dominated as he is now. Some have pointed to his growth spurt as evidence of drug useage now, and I wouldn't discount it. The PGA testing would never catch a sophisticated user. Tiger can afford the best.
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I'm really back and forth on this issue. Yes, I think that there is enough circumstantial evidence that he used PED's, BUT I don't believe that there is clear cut performance gain (ala Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa type stuff), to prove without a doubt that he's guilty of it.

Granted, comparing baseball to golf is fool's gold, and perhaps the performance gain is in the focus, the ability to recover from injury (after all he was playing on a broken leg in the 2008 US Open) AND it would enable him to practice more hours without any substantial fatigue (especially helpful with any pre-existing injuries).

The flip side to this argument is that the guy WON EVERYTHING at EVERY LEVEL (caps for emphasis). Three US Junior Amateur titles, three US Amateur titles, I believe one NCAA Championship title (not certain), along with everything on the junior tours. So, this is why I mention that there is no clear performance gain. Heck, there were guys in 1996 BEFORE he turned pro (bonafide touring pro's, mind you) that already said he was the #1 player in the world as an amateur.

That said, I don't think that many people have confidence that Tim Finchem or the top brass on the Tour would ever spill the beans. They've confirmed in other PED cases, that there have been positive tests, but they will not release names. In fact, the case of Vijay Singh might be an interesting litmus test as he has faced a ton of public scrutiny for his use of a product that was not official banned, yet the tour went public with the finding anyway. His lawsuit could be a very, very interesting development in light of the fact that the PGA Tour will just arbitrarily release positive tests when it serves their agenda.
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Doubt it.

A few years back, he played like he was "hungry to take the victory". Now when in contention in majors, he plays like he's timid and "afraid to lose".
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I doubt it too, but he still has many years in his career. He can still do it, but he needs to find his old self. In this form, he is just another player and not the champ we all remember.
 
Here are some interesting Tiger stats. Since his last major win at the 2008 U.S. Open he has played 17 majors. In those he has 8 top-6 finishes which is an exceptional record. However, the last 2 years of majors don't break down so well — the aggregate score of his first two rounds (Thursday and Friday) is a respectable 11 under par. But the aggregate score of his last two rounds (Saturday and Sunday) is 23 over par. And scoring like that won't get it done.
 
Quote from electron:

I doubt it too, but he still has many years in his career. He can still do it...
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Once you sink into the pattern of "playing like a scared rabbit", it's difficult to once again become the "lion on the hunt".
 
Quote from Magna:

Here are some interesting Tiger stats. Since his last major win at the 2008 U.S. Open he has played 17 majors. In those he has 8 top-6 finishes which is an exceptional record. However, the last 2 years of majors don't break down so well — the aggregate score of his first two rounds (Thursday and Friday) is a respectable 11 under par. But the aggregate score of his last two rounds (Saturday and Sunday) is 23 over par. And scoring like that won't get it done.
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The British press once characterized Nick Faldo as "Nick Fold-o", after blowing a couple of opportunities. Completely unfair of course. But Tiger his been "folding" when in contention all too often in recent years... that is if he wants to be regarded as the "all time greatest".

As Andy North quipped on Sunday (regarding Phil's back-nine finish), "Great players make great shots at crunch time". And of course, Phil is and has been all of that at times.... as has been Woods of a younger age. Tiger, however, has not been such recently.
 
Generally a major is won by the guy who has a hot putter coming down the stretch. For a long time, Tiger's clutch putting was unreal. Remember his duel with Bob May at the PGA when he sank a couple of snakes to win? Or that long downhiller at the Open at Torrey Pines when he was playing on a bum leg?

But putting is the ultimate probability game. Even the best on Tour are only around 50% at much beyond six feet and the percentages decline rapidly from there. I would argue that a large part of Tiger's failure to win majors recently has been due to a simple mean reversion in his putting when it really matters. Tiger was always a good putter but it's not like he totally outclassed the rest of the field. He just had a knack for making long putts at the right time. Was that all skill or did fortune play a role?

I'm not saying he won due to luck, but he got more than his share of breaks on the greens. He's not getting them now, and he needs them now because he can't blow away the field with his length like he used to be able to do. He's certainly not intimidating anyone now. I imagine some of the young guns now snicker about him behind his back.
 
So you are saying the current FedEx Cup Leader can't even win 4 more majors?

He has improved every year since his comeback. This year he has shown he is still a contender.

4 majors in 4-5 years, sure.
 
I hope he does top 18 majors. I think it's wishful thinking though because I don't think he is going to be making enough starts to stay big game sharp. who knows? 2018 for 18 at shinny works for me.
 
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