Woods... Will He Surpass Nicklaus's 18 Majors?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Doubt it.

A few years back, he played like he was "hungry to take the victory". Now when in contention in majors, he plays like he's timid and "afraid to lose".

I'm a Tiger fan. I like to see major records broken in all sports. And a few years ago, I thought Tiger a shoe-in to surpass Nicklaus.

But he ain't the same player now.

Besides... Nicklaus didn't have the pressure of "catching up to an immortal record". Once clear of Hagan's 11 majors, he was as free-sailing as he could be. Tiger now has extra pressure at every opportunity. And as Lee Travino once said, "We all leak oil under pressure... some a little, some a lot". More true in golf than other sports.

Hope I'm wrong, but his nervous/scared play when it's really important suggests he falls short.
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Nicklaus didn't have the pressure of "catching up to an immortal record". Once clear of Hagan's 11 majors, he was as free-sailing as he could be.
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Agree that once past 11 Nicklaus wasn't chasing anyone, but I wouldn't exactly call it free-sailing. Let's take a look at the competition Tiger has had to face in his 18 yr career so far. Major winners with 3 or more:

Phil Mickelson (5)
Ernie Els (4)
Payne Stewart (3)
Vijay Singh (3)

That's it. Now let's look at what Jack had to face in major winners with 3 or more:

Gary Player (9)
Tom Watson (8)
Arnold Palmer (7)
Lee Trevino (6)
Seve Ballesteros (5)
Ray Floyd (4)
Billy Casper (3)
Julius Boros (3)
Larry Nelson (3)
Hale Irwin (3)

While the competition is much deeper now it's not even close at the top compared to what Jack faced. Everybody talks about Nicklaus' 18 major wins but fails to mention that in majors he came in second 19 times! Since 2000, aside from the names listed above, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera and Rory McIlroy are the only players to even win 2 majors. Anyway, I always like what Jack says about Tiger, "I expect him to break my record. I think he's just too talented, too driven, and too focused on that... But he still has to go out and do it."
 
Quote from fhl:

I'm a big Mickelson fan. It's just so nice to see a good guy come out on top.
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Agree, and have been a big fan of Phil The Thrill for a number of years. Many people don't know that in the last 50 years only 2 amateurs have ever won on the PGA Tour, and he was the last to do it back in 1991. It's too bad he blew a couple of U.S. Opens, last month at Merion and back in '06 at Winged Foot. Says he's now playing the best golf of his career, but he is 43 and hopefully can still pick up one or two more majors. Immensely talented guy, always exciting to watch.
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Doubt it.

A few years back, he played like he was "hungry to take the victory". Now when in contention in majors, he plays like he's timid and "afraid to lose".

I'm a Tiger fan. I like to see major records broken in all sports. And a few years ago, I thought Tiger a shoe-in to surpass Nicklaus.

But he ain't the same player now.

Besides... Nicklaus didn't have the pressure of "catching up to an immortal record". Once clear of Hagan's 11 majors, he was as free-sailing as he could be. Tiger now has extra pressure at every opportunity. And as Lee Travino once said, "We all leak oil under pressure... some a little, some a lot". More true in golf than other sports.

Hope I'm wrong, but his nervous/scared play when it's really important suggests he falls short.
More...

Tiger Woods was using PED's from the late 90's through 2008 (when the PGA began their somewhat dubious testing). He hasn't won a major since they started testing. His legendary "freshness" after 3 long hot days of golf and dominating on Sunday was due to his body recovering thanks to his PED use.

Sorry tiger groupies, but he's a fucking cheater just like A-rod, Bonds, Pujols, Armstrong, Bolt, Gay, and every single other athlete that absolutely embarrasses the rest of his sport (especially after a few years when they start coming up with weird tendon, ligament, hamstring injuries seemingly every month).
 
Quote from Magna:

Agree that once past 11 Nicklaus wasn't chasing anyone, but I wouldn't exactly call it free-sailing.
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Once Nicklaus surpassed Hagan, he had no pressure to win more. He was still going to be #1 in majors when his day was through.

Tiger is still chasing Nicklaus' record... if he doesn't reach 18 or 19, he will always have "failed... fallen short.. didn't quite measure up". Nicklaus didn't face that after #11-12.
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Once Nicklaus surpassed Hagan, he had no pressure to win more. He was still going to be #1 in majors when his day was through.

Tiger is still chasing Nicklaus' record... if he doesn't reach 18 or 19, he will always have "failed... fallen short.. didn't quite measure up". Nicklaus didn't face that after #11-12.
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Agree that Tiger has a different kind of pressure chasing after Nicklaus. But that gives him a goal, a destination, an objective. Nicklaus on the other hand, after he passed Hagan, had no outside catalyst to keep accumulating. And yet a relentless quest for excellence kept him going. So Tiger has a very strong outside incentive, Nicklaus had none and yet added 6 more majors after passing Hagan.

To your original question of whether Tiger will get to 19... Number 15 will be the "easiest" and if he gets closer to 18 the public attention and pressure will be extraordinary. Kinda like in baseball when a player approaches the single season average of Ted Williams, the last man to hit .400 (way back in 1941) or if a player approaches Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak of 56 games (also in 1941). So, yeah, if Tiger gets closer the pressure will seriously mount and in that sense it will be unlike anything Nicklaus had to go through.

Though it has been over 5 years since his last major Tiger still has time even if he fails to win the PGA in a couple weeks. He will be 38 for the 2014 season and Nicklaus won 1 at age 38, 2 at age 40, and 1 at age 46. So assuming no injuries Tiger can do it but it's very hard to gauge his mental state until after he gets another one under his belt. Right now his major play has been very shakey on weekends but at the same time he's always in the mix and a big win could change everything. He "only" needs 5 more to pass Nicklaus but at the same time it's taken Mickelson his entire career to accumulate 5 so it's no simple task. My guess is he will win 2 more but he could easily fool me either way and never get another one or end up with 20.
 
It's an interesting question about Tiger using PEDs. He wasn't nearly as big back in the days when he dominated as he is now. Some have pointed to his growth spurt as evidence of drug useage now, and I wouldn't discount it. The PGA testing would never catch a sophisticated user. Tiger can afford the best.

I agree with the OP that Tiger, who once looked like a lock to surpass Jack, now looks like long odds. He certainly could do it though. All it would take is for those putts that he used to always make to start falling again.

I don't agree that Jack faced tougher competition. Jack had an immense physical advantage over the guys he competed against. He could drive the ball 300 yards using a small headed driver and a steel shaft. His iron shots were majestic. Most of the guys he was up against were borderline drunks with homemade swings. Jack could probably hit his 5 iron further than Trevino could drive the ball. Gary Player was like 5'6 and 135 pounds.

At one point Tiger had a similar advantage. When he came on Tour, guys like Nick Faldo drove the ball 250 yards. Tiger was hitting wedges into greens at Augusta that guys like Faldo were goign after with 4 irons. Now you can't even be on the Tour hitting it that short. There are probably a dozen guys who are longer than Tiger every week. He has to play pretty much flawless golf to win. He can do it on regular Tour stops where there is no rough and soft greens, but at the majors it is a different story.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

...I don't agree that Jack faced tougher competition.
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But he did. Everyone understands that winning majors is the toughest task in golf which is why Tiger's entire career has been about pursuing Jack's major total. It takes a skill, perseverance and mental toughness not found in normal tour events which is why winning only 2 pretty much guarantees an entry into the Golf World Hall of Fame. My first post in this thread clearly demonstrated that Jack has faced far more multiple major winners.

And if that were not enough to convince you then let's take a look at who faced multiple PGA tour event winners. While there is certainly overlap (ie, Mickelson started winning 5 years before the start of Tiger's career, Davis Love 9 years, etc.) the following lists show those players where the bulk of their career overlapped with Tiger or Jack.

First are the multi-winner players Tiger has faced, with total PGA tour wins in parenthesis (starting with highest number of wins down to 16):

Phil Mickelson (42)
Vijay Singh (34)
Davis Love (20)
Ernie Els (19)
Jim Furyk (16)

And here is what Jack faced (again starting with highest number of wins down to 16):

Arnold Palmer (62)
Billy Casper (51)
Tom Watson (39)
Lee Trevino (29)
Johnny Miller (25)
Gary Player (24)
Ray Floyd (22)
Lanny Wadkins (21)
Hale Irwin (20)
Doug Sanders (20)
Ben Crenshaw (19)
Hubert Green (19)
Curtis Strange (17)
Tom Weiskopf (16)

It's not even close who faced the most multiple major winners and the most multiple tour winners. And that's the definition of tougher competition.
 
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