Winning percentage

i'm fully aware of the difference between scapling and intraday-trend trading. i scalp, have a 60% winning percentage with winners over 2 times the size of my losers before commissinos, 1.5 after. my average holding time is probably between 5-10 minutes. i assure you i am not breaking even. frankly, i don't think i can do much better than this with my current strategies, which is why i'm looking to other ones, like news stocks, but i don't expect to have 70%+ winning percentage on those either. it's just hard to believe that 48% of the traders that responded have winning percentages >70%, but at the same time, i can't see why people would lie on a pole. i guess i'd just like some proof, like numbers, details, strategies or something else from those that claim this.

my point is that if you gave me a 75% winning percentage with what i'm doing, i would be well over a million a year trader, and how many of those are there? maybe 50 total? i know there are probably no more than 10 out of 700 at worldco, and how many of those are scalpers? few, if any. they are intraday trend trading size, with a low winning percentage, or maybe playing the THC's of the world with size, and i doubt they have a 70%,80%, or 90% winning percentage on those.
 
Quote from dafugginman:

i'm fully aware of the difference between scapling and intraday-trend trading. i scalp, have a 60% winning percentage with winners over 2 times the size of my losers before commissinos, 1.5 after. my average holding time is probably between 5-10 minutes. i assure you i am not breaking even. frankly, i don't think i can do much better than this with my current strategies, which is why i'm looking to other ones, like news stocks, but i don't expect to have 70%+ winning percentage on those either. it's just hard to believe that 48% of the traders that responded have winning percentages >70%, but at the same time, i can't see why people would lie on a pole. i guess i'd just like some proof, like numbers, details, strategies or something else from those that claim this.

my point is that if you gave me a 75% winning percentage with what i'm doing, i would be well over a million a year trader, and how many of those are there? maybe 50 total? i know there are probably no more than 10 out of 700 at worldco, and how many of those are scalpers? few, if any. they are intraday trend trading size, with a low winning percentage, or maybe playing the THC's of the world with size, and i doubt they have a 70%,80%, or 90% winning percentage on those.
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Your numbers are impressive dafugginman...

In terms of post-commission expectancy, you are pulling in (on a per trade basis) a cool 0.5R... given that you are scalping for slightly more than your risk per trade, the slightly lower winning 60% is acceptable... your strategy is actually equivalent (on a per trade basis) to a guy trading at 75% for the same amount he risks... what you lack in winning %, you more than make up for in reward:risk ...

YOU: 0.6(1.5R) - 0.4(R) = 0.5R

A 75% SCALPER GAINING WHAT HE RISKS: 0.75(R) - 0.25R = 0.5R
 
what is a scalp? If I hold a position for 30 mins. and make .05, or hold for 10 secs. and make .50, are they both scalps?Some days I will make more on a very small percent winners than others.Either way I feel I am scalping.Also, a $5 profit day is small, but never the less a profit.Some may be profiting by scalping with a 50 % win rate, but how much of a profit?
 
Quote from terrh:

what is a scalp? If I hold a position for 30 mins. and make .05, or hold for 10 secs. and make .50, are they both scalps?Some days I will make more on a very small percent winners than others.Either way I feel I am scalping.Also, a $5 profit day is small, but never the less a profit.Some may be profiting by scalping with a 50 % win rate, but how much of a profit?
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terrh,

To keep this thread on track, my view on what constitutes a scalp is given on this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=157870#post157870

Candle
 
i'm hitting 2:1 (fluctuates between 1.8:1 to 2.2:1 for weeks at a time...) with 55% winners. every now and then i've gotten a couple weeks of 60-62% and i think i'm onto something, but it's always fallen back (damn!)... very short term trades, not quite scalps... tried this with ES for a while, found getting 2:1 hard for my style, so back to stocks..

i agree with dafugginman that the poll results look highly suspect. 70%+ ? yeah, maybe. 80%? i just can't believe it. 90%? get lost idiot


 
Quote from daniel_m:

i'm hitting 2:1 (fluctuates between 1.8:1 to 2.2:1 for weeks at a time...) with 55% winners. every now and then i've gotten a couple weeks of 60-62% and i think i'm onto something, but it's always fallen back (damn!)... very short term trades, not quite scalps... tried this with ES for a while, found getting 2:1 hard for my style, so back to stocks..

i agree with dafugginman that the poll results look highly suspect. 70%+ ? yeah, maybe. 80%? i just can't believe it. 90%? get lost idiot
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I gotta agree with you on the 90%... I have yet to come across even a marginally positive expectancy strategy which consistently gives 90%...

On the issue of ES, I can relate to what you are saying... 2:1 for scalping (or pseudo-scalping) strategies on the ES has not been too hot of late... it takes a 1 point stop in my opinion to scalp ES (and this is on the low side, a more prudent stop would be 50% larger), so the 2:1 ratio would require a 2 point move without taking out this stop... occasionally this does happen, but not frequently enough for my liking... having said that, your numbers do produce a nice pre-commission per trade expectancy of (0.55 x 2R) - (0.45 x 1R) = 0.65R... despite that, my backtesting analysis does show that such an approach has lately required a psychological willingness to absorb significant drawdown periods, whilst shorter-term scalpers (who, for the ES, may even be using an risk:reward ratio which is sub-parity, and offsetting this by a high winning percentage) have a smoother equity curve... the 2:1 approach would be more amenable to periods of increased volatility and stronger follow through, than periods of minimal intraday volatility and often anemic volume, hence the need to remain adaptable to evolving market conditions... there are two contrasting solutions that deal with these conditions:
a) scalp for much smaller gains (e.g. 0.5 points) with an adverse R:R ratio and a very high winning %, being aware in advance that such an approach can produce more flat days and losing days (after commissions) than you are used to...
b) swing for larger gains with larger stops a lower winning %, being aware in advance that such an approach will lead to a wilder equity curve... but at least you get round the issue of minimal intraday volatility...

Nice post, Daniel_M... you have brought up some issues which I totally agree with you on...
 
Candletrader:
the 2:1 approach would be more amenable to periods of increased volatility and stronger follow through, than periods of minimal intraday volatility and often anemic volume, hence the need to remain adaptable to evolving market conditions...
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if you're talking about ES, i pretty much agree. with my stocktrading though, there are certain things i can pull out even with contracted volatility and choppy ranges. so, no, i haven't really had to withstand any out of the ordinary drawndowns, personally. (it's not so much a case that lower volatility or choppy markets hurt, it's more that i end up leaving more on the table during increased volatility. unless that volatility increase is sustained for a while, so i can "catch up")
 
It's easy to imagine a >90% winning strategy.

Even if I buy/sell at random I can get that just by adjusting my reward:risk to about 1:10...if the market is "random" (lets not go there) I will win about that. Of course just doing this without an edge loses money but that's not the point.

I heard a while back that, I think, Mark Cook was now trading the S&P with about 80-85% winners, with losers 3 times bigger than winners, and an average win of about 3 points? My guess is that he was averaging down 2 times at a 3 point gap each time.

eg buy 1 @ 950, market goes down, buy 1 @ 947, now sell 2 @ 944 stop and sell 2 @ 950. If you win you make 3 if you lose you lose 9 points on a 1 contract basis.

He seemed to be choosing the "most appropriate" time of day for this strategy - by which I assume he meant the "noisest" least following through portion of the day.

Not that strange surely?

:D

Q1
 
Quote from RAY:

I can see people getting 90%+.
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You guys shouldn't be posting stuff like this. You're turning this
forum into a joke. Here's a few quotes from someone who really
makes a living trading. Hope this helps.



"When I daytrade the SP, the smallest movement I am interested in is one where I can select spots to limit losses to
between three and five ticks,while the nearest resistance
or support levels on the profitable side are a minimum of 15 to
20 ticks away."


"You can make a respectable living being right on only one
out of three trades provided you maintain a risk/reward ratio
of 3:1. In other words, if you pick opportunities so that the
probable reward is at least three times greater than the
potential loss, you will make profits over time."


"Anyone who expects to be right on most of their trades is
in for a rude awakening. It's a lot like hitting a baseball-the best players get hits 30 to 40% of the time"


The quotes come from his book: Trader Vic-Methods of a
Wall Street Master. If you haven't read it, I'd highly recommend it.

Best of Luck!
 
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