Winning percentage

Sucker · Nov 23, 2002

"The only predictable thing about the markets is that they are unpredictable." George Kleinman

Sucker · Nov 23, 2002

"The fact of the matter is that markets actually move in three directions - up, down, and sideways. It is important to be aware of this distinction because for at least a third of the time, by a conservative estimate, prices move in a flat, horizontal pattern that is referred to as a 'trading range'."

John Murphy

Sucker · Nov 23, 2002

"The best traders make money on only about (*) of their trades. That's right. Most trades wind up being losers. How then do traders make money if they're wrong most of the time?."

John J. Murphy

* The percentage will be posted after we have the average poll results.

candletrader · Nov 23, 2002

To get meaning out of this survey, I suggest it should be redesigned to ask for winning % within various strategies... an 80% winning strategy for scalping is about what you need to be making a reasonable profit... but 80% with a trend trading strategy is totally amazing.... 40%-50% for a trend trading strategy is about right, but 40%-50% for a scalping strategy will lead to rapid failure... winning percentages mean nothing unless put into the context of the general trading strategies...

hii a_ooiioo_a · Nov 23, 2002

Most of mine turn out to be winning trades, but often before or after the point at which I end up selling them

Sayheywillie · Nov 23, 2002

To further Candlestick's reply, IMHO the percentage of winning trades as a stand alone statistic is meaningless. What matters to the individual trader is whether or not their personal winning percentage is aligned with their personality and the trading approach (s)he uses. Personally I am more comfortable with winning a high percentage of the time at the cost of very rarely "hitting a homerun". I know others who are comfortable with a winning percentage closer to .33, but they have the personality to withstand frequent and successive losses. Additionally, their losses are small and their winners are large.

Sayheywillie · Nov 23, 2002

I should have referenced Candletader in my previous post, not Candlestick. Sorry.

goldenarm · Nov 23, 2002

Net P&L is the only worthwhile statistic. You can be only 20% correct in your trades and still be profitable. Conversely, you can be 80% correct and be in the red.

Sayheywillie · Nov 23, 2002

You have 60 minutes to edit your post. Click Edit on the post where you made a typo
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Thanks for the info.

wally_ · Nov 23, 2002

Quote from goldenarm:

Net P&L is the only worthwhile statistic. You can be only 20% correct in your trades and still be profitable. Conversely, you can be 80% correct and be in the red.

I agree, yet another poll that makes no sense whatsoever...