Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES

[ElectricSavant]

NeedToLearn

Your post made me realize that I must return to my roots. I set out from the beginning to learn the DOM after realizing that I had wasted too much time with Forex.

Learning the DOM may be a little hard for me...but I am going to try.

I have a bad habit to try to "add to" my trades when they go against me as I do not get good entries usually. Watching the VID that Call sent was enlightening as to how a pro trader handled it.

ES

P.S. I think "adding to" or "pyramiding" is fine...its just got to be for the right reasons and not for a martingale effect.

Hmm... using daily loss limit as the stop and going for 1-3 ticks for profit? This sounds similar to selling far out of the money options, except it is faster. I guess problem would be the outliers, where the market decides to keep trending day after day (since it sounds like more reversion to the mean type of trade) and comms. fees. Since he is using market orders fills won't be an issue.

On top of that, it sounds like adding to losers upto 5 contracts, which makes the 1000 dollar stop close to 4 points from averaged in price and more from initial entry price. So without scale in the stop is like 20 points. I guess this method focuses on win rates?

I remember one person that did something similar except the stop wasn't as wide I think. He took 1-3 ticks of profits, sometimes more if market gets moving. Scaled in maybe once. Had 80-90% win rate (which included b/e trades).

 

[ElectricSavant]

The pro trader in the VID that CALL sent did not use a mouse at all!

There are so many details that seem to go un-discussed here in ET.

This thread is a must for all ES traders. We have some of our best posters in here seemingly giving away the keys to the kingdom

Es

P. S. You see the secrets are important...BUT...BUT..most will give up before learning to read the DOM..so really no secrets are realized for profit...maybe one in a hundred readers will be inspired and get this.

Hotkeys

 

[ElectricSavant]

Ok I got everything set up.

...now what do all these quotes moving up and down in the DOM in my replay mean? Sometime they skip down/up two or even three spots...sometimes they freeze and colors in the highlight behind them change. What is this kaleidoscope of movement mean?...sometimes its quick other times its methodic? The numbers are not real most of the time other than price.

Thus far the only thing I realize is that eye drops are needed.

ES

 

[ElectricSavant]

Little details I left out...had to synch my new OTR charts (Thanks Sprout). The scaling and far right edge need to align...Turn off autofit. The YM moves more but the ticks are worth less. SCALING seems to be real important.

ES

P.S. Those bar charts in the 30m, 5m and daily are kewl and much easier on the brain.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Wow..I just called my first long in an 08/01/18 replay... thanks to the OTR.

The YM does lead...and HFT and the ARBS let me have a tick.

Yes I am using "market orders"

ES

 

[ElectricSavant]

C'mon market open already...I want to stare at my new screens to find something I can grab onto...Then I can wake up tomorrow morning and have questions

ES

P. S. Does anybody know "the ten cases of price? ? It sounds familiar..have I read it somewhere? I scan lots of material.

 

[NeedToLearn]

ten cases of price are simply bar to bar cases in relation to the previous bar.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Thanks NTL I printed that one out..

ten cases of price are simply bar to bar cases in relation to the previous bar.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Ok here's what happened (said in Monks voice).

I was short.

Pic One

• There was a yellow highlight on 2841.00 because that was the current price. It had the red arrow pointing down indicating that I was short marking my average trade price
• The price number below the yellow highlighted current price (2840.75) was green (2841.75) signifying the price just came up from there.
  
• The Bid at 2840.75 displays 28 contracts over a green histogram (visualize the number) are there any sellers? These number of contracts displayed change wildly at times and many of them are not real. The Time & sales prove it.
• The Ask (Offer) at 2841.00 displays 56 contracts over a red histogram (visualize the number) are there any buyers? These number of contracts change wildly at times and many of them are not real. The Time & Sales prove it.
  
• I have an extra column in there showing me my estimated p/l in dollars. it's kinda' handy.

So the price dropped in my favor.



Pic two

• There was a yellow highlight on 2840.75 because that was the current price.
• The price above it (2841.00) had the red arrow to the left of it pointing down indicating that I was short marking my average trade price.
• The price number above the yellow highlighted current price (2840.75) was red (2841.00) signifying the price just came down from there.
• The Bid at 2840.75 displays 26 contracts over a green histogram (visualize the number) are there any sellers? These number of contracts displayed change wildly at times and many of them are not real. The Time & sales prove it.
• The Ask (Offer) at 2841.00 displays 51 contracts over a red histogram (visualize the number) are there any buyers? These number of contracts change wildly at times and many of them are not real. The Time & Sales prove it.
• I have an extra column in there showing me my estimated p/l in dollars. it's kinda' handy.

I ended up scratching the trade because I was writing this and taking the pictures but it did drop down to 2840.50 which is what I needed for a market order to hit for one tick.

I have noted the price can bounce back and forth between the Bid & Ask several times, does this mean anything? Also sometimes it will bounce up and freeze and other times it will bounce up and come right back very quickly. Any comments would be appreciated.

Trying to watch the contract numbers changing wildly and to digest what is going on and to try and track the changes is quite challenging...any comments as to what to look for? One time the background histograms all changed together quickly...it was quite a show...it ended up looking like ledge triangle.

ElectricLookingForPatternsAndCluesSavant

 

[TraderEX]

My current system that I am practicing with has revealed something. It has a very high winrate because it only goes for 1 tick. The stop loss is always very close and is getting hit every 7-10 trades. But I have discovered that after a SL is hit to double my contracts to (2) to recover in time to reduce them back down to (1) for the next SL. I have a daily loss limit set globally at TradoVate for $250.00.

Do any of you trade a metric like this and can you add anything?

ES

Hey Electric Savant, I use a single tick system that sometimes goes to three ticks but my focus is the single tick system. I find when I double and lose a few, I no longer have enough margin, say for 8 contracts.(1, then 2,then 4,then 8. Doesn't happen often but happens. So the system collapses. Any suggestions??
Last week I was red hot, hitting 93% win, 2% tie rate and of course 5% losers. Sixteen hundred contacts(using 3 contracts per order) netted after all costs, $1968.00.