Tell you what, Savant. Keep a journal on your system. Do it for a year with a $10,000 in a live account. Show us the results after that year. Then we'll talk if you make 10% net fees/comms etc.
Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
Tell you what, Savant. Keep a journal on your system. Do it for a year with a $10,000 in a live account. Show us the results after that year. Then we'll talk if you make 10% net fees/comms etc.
Even three points puts you in the meat grinder with recent months volatility. At minimum, double that, and forget about 1:4 RR intraday. Just try to stay on the right side of the market and take what you can get. Greed kills
A few observations.
First, going for a single tick is decidedly cringe-worthy. At least for me and most of the respondents in this thread.
Second, you did not disclose the size of your SL (apart from it being "very close"), which would be required to make a meaningful assessment of your risk:reward model.
Third, how did you discover that doubling your size makes sense right after a loss? Seems rather arbitrary for a system that goes for single ticks. What made doubling the size the "right" thing to do?
Last edited:
I scalp the DOM... You should consider attempting to identify the current direction bias and scalp that direction for more than 1 tick... Also, obtain a large supply of high quality eye drops.
You can scalp, but I would not go for 1 tick.... If you get an Impulse in your favor, use your safety stop as a trailing stop and Step-Follow the trade.
The first thing what I allways do with the new systems is some math:
If you're paying "normal" retail commissions lets say about $3,56/RT and without knowing your "stoploss is very close" quessing it's something like 4 ticks you have to have ca. 86% win rate to be profitable. But in this situation you will pay something about 95% commissions out of your profits
Then if you have 90% win rate you still have to pay 57% commissions 
In long run I would say this kind of system is very, very bad idea until you really have a rock solid edge (no room for variance) executed by an Algo and a seat at IOM of course.
Disclaimer: Quick calculations may have some errors
If you're paying "normal" retail commissions lets say about $3,56/RT and without knowing your "stoploss is very close" quessing it's something like 4 ticks you have to have ca. 86% win rate to be profitable. But in this situation you will pay something about 95% commissions out of your profits
Then if you have 90% win rate you still have to pay 57% commissions In long run I would say this kind of system is very, very bad idea until you really have a rock solid edge (no room for variance) executed by an Algo and a seat at IOM of course.
Disclaimer: Quick calculations may have some errors
I’ll give this away:
10:00-10:30 look at where the 180/200 EMA using the ‘low’ value of the bar for calculation. Go with the EMA indication , chart is 240 tick chart.
2:00-2:30 same thing. When range expansion is in play the orderflow historically starts at these intraday timepoints.
Significant travel or point escape occurs at these time points.
Use 16:16 tick R:R I tested this on multi year historical data and forward tested it also.
If you want to build a buffer wait for 16 tick reversion before going with the entry indicated.
10:00-10:30 look at where the 180/200 EMA using the ‘low’ value of the bar for calculation. Go with the EMA indication , chart is 240 tick chart.
2:00-2:30 same thing. When range expansion is in play the orderflow historically starts at these intraday timepoints.
Significant travel or point escape occurs at these time points.
Use 16:16 tick R:R I tested this on multi year historical data and forward tested it also.
If you want to build a buffer wait for 16 tick reversion before going with the entry indicated.
Can I bracket it with 2 ticks? If it goes against me can I enter in more bracket entries undern/over each other while keeping the 2-tick bracket in place? This way it thins me the way up giving me realized. My daily loss limit is set at Tradovate.
ES
ES
I get a lot of advice about not to use indicators but to learn how to read the DOM. But I have had the best day thus far by learning the ROC, PPO, MACD & CCI (I even laid one over the other and came up with quite a powerful combo). I use these to ENTER with. Drawing horizontal lines to indicate levels has never been so imprtant to me when comparing them to the dom...did you know my DOM has a column just for indicator levels too! TradoVate has a good DOM.
This is not a green light blue light method that I am learning here. I am just self learning on how to enter and the best use of MM to exit. Most cases I am getting precision entries and if the trade goes against me I can enter one more and thin-out on the way back. I call it "thinning out". I used to "add to" to pull both of them down or up for the exit together. This left me over exposed during the ride and I prefer to let each trade have its target. Only scalpers on the DOM will understand what I am describing. My DOM has a handy column in it called "est P/L".
This is ROCKET SCIENCE for me just now...Again I am finding my way but this is harder than I imagined and I have invested hundreds of hours in this stage I am in now.
This ES scalping is a lot harder than Forex. But I feel good to be in a regulated market and I always wanted to learn scalping.
ElectricSavant
This is not a green light blue light method that I am learning here. I am just self learning on how to enter and the best use of MM to exit. Most cases I am getting precision entries and if the trade goes against me I can enter one more and thin-out on the way back. I call it "thinning out". I used to "add to" to pull both of them down or up for the exit together. This left me over exposed during the ride and I prefer to let each trade have its target. Only scalpers on the DOM will understand what I am describing. My DOM has a handy column in it called "est P/L".
This is ROCKET SCIENCE for me just now...Again I am finding my way but this is harder than I imagined and I have invested hundreds of hours in this stage I am in now.
This ES scalping is a lot harder than Forex. But I feel good to be in a regulated market and I always wanted to learn scalping.
ElectricSavant
Last edited: