Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES

[ElectricSavant]

I increased it to 2-ticks.

ES

The first thing what I allways do with the new systems is some math:

If you're paying "normal" retail commissions lets say about $3,56/RT and without knowing your "stoploss is very close" quessing it's something like 4 ticks you have to have ca. 86% win rate to be profitable. But in this situation you will pay something about 95% commissions out of your profits Then if you have 90% win rate you still have to pay 57% commissions

In long run I would say this kind of system is very, very bad idea until you really have a rock solid edge (no room for variance) executed by an Algo and a seat at IOM of course.

Disclaimer: Quick calculations may have some errors

 

[ElectricSavant]

Learning trailing stops...I need more time ok? This is not Forex and I need to wipe the slate clean...takes about 30 seconds in my state.

ES

I scalp the DOM... You should consider attempting to identify the current direction bias and scalp that direction for more than 1 tick... Also, obtain a large supply of high quality eye drops.

You can scalp, but I would not go for 1 tick.... If you get an Impulse in your favor, use your safety stop as a trailing stop and Step-Follow the trade.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Frederick...I understand your points. Very good points. I am in a state of learning and adjusting and believe it or not ET is very valuable to me. This is what ET should be. Traders helping Traders. Could you imagine all of us in a trading room? sometimes I imagine it. You get the jerks...the Pro's ...the mediocre...the apprentices...and so on. I do not have hard numbers that are meaningful until I settle down and find what I like. It must fit me...it may not make the most possible but it must fit. As I discover precision I need to hone my SL's instead of relying on the dealer daily loss limit. I have discovered some real good precision that requires me to wait between trade sets...however I have been busy thus far today.

ES

A few observations.

First, going for a single tick is decidedly cringe-worthy. At least for me and most of the respondents in this thread.

Second, you did not disclose the size of your SL (apart from it being "very close"), which would be required to make a meaningful assessment of your risk:reward model.

Third, how did you discover that doubling your size makes sense right after a loss? Seems rather arbitrary for a system that goes for single ticks. What made doubling the size the "right" thing to do?

 

[ElectricSavant]

6 ticks is hard for me to imagine just now. That would require a little more longer term intraday method than I am hypertrading with now. But you are hinting at wide stops no?

ES

Even three points puts you in the meat grinder with recent months volatility. At minimum, double that, and forget about 1:4 RR intraday. Just try to stay on the right side of the market and take what you can get. Greed kills

 

[ElectricSavant]

Point taken...you are right. I am trying two-ticks now..sometimes escape at 1-tick or BE. It according to my "time in trade" .

ES

Tell you what, Savant. Keep a journal on your system. Do it for a year with a $10,000 in a live account. Show us the results after that year. Then we'll talk if you make 10% net fees/comms etc.

 

[Spectre2007]

New York..

 

[ElectricSavant]

SimpleMeLike,

TY for such a congenial post. I am not used to politeness and gentleness on this anonymous place known as ET.

I would NEVER trade this rollercoaster live at my present level of knowledge. Do not ask me how long I have been trading ok? But longer than you.

I find to wipe the slate clean is the only way and just start over.

ES

Hello ElectricSavant,

I do not want to discourage you, cause you may make money consistently and you may not. But trading for 1 tick seems a bit small. All you can do is sim test and see what happens.

 

[ElectricSavant]

TY I have printed that out. Another avenue of income I will take a look at it, but I will have to tape it to my forehead as I do not have any more tapeable bezel left.

ES

New York..

 

[ElectricSavant]

Running across the freeway to pick up a dime.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Nice!...instead of using bracket orders you are taking what the market can give..

es

I'd go for a few more ticks. I set limit orders at what I define as short term extremes that are likely to snap back a few ticks. You can then take half off after a few ticks and let the rest ride for longer, in the case of strong trend. Today:

View attachment 189249

Reentering after SL is a good training exercise for the longer term. You just have to be disciplined enough not to snowball the losses when you get a strong trend against you. The daily loss limit may help you with that. My entries now are where I used to have my stops when I was a noob.