Wrong, period. Lots of people speculate precisely because they believe their success in other fields will translate into speculation. But it doesn't because speculation is unlike any other field, nor is it competitive. It is about supply and demand from a certain segment of the population. Knowing which segment that is, is the holy grail.
Will i ever get it.
- Thread starter note
- Start date
Wrong, period. Lots of people speculate precisely because they believe their success in other fields will translate into speculation. But it doesn't because speculation is unlike any other field, nor is it competitive. It is about supply and demand from a certain segment of the population. Knowing which segment that is, is the holy grail.
Doing exactly what I told Note I would
And once the mkt noise filtered out - it'll get more focused
In the meantime - popcorn..., anyone
RN
That's not what I said. 90% fail to reach success because they follow that same rationale.
1) I never said that success in one field begets success in another. That's like saying Peyton Manning would have been a great Sumo Wrestler. Wrong. Following that logic is why the majority fails.
If Note, the OP, really wants to succeed, he will if he wants it bad enough. He will set out to figure out what he needs to do. Matching his best attributes to the competition in the environment. He might not outdo an HFT firm scalping one minute chart, but he can best the other fellows trading some other way.
2) Trading/speculation: is competitive. Any time one tries to outdo another in any arena, the activity becomes competition. The fact that people don't believe that is why they fail. Banks are in business, and business is competition. That's why they win. Goldman is out to make more money than Morgan, and they dream to drive them and anyone else out of business. So, they live with that mindset, and that's why they win.
Success is first a question of mindset, and most don't have it because they don't really want it. It's too hard and demands sacrifices.
Anyways, my point is that the majority fails and they blame someone else for it.
+1 .
Totally agree. Most of the 90% are the ones who "kinda tried it" for a few months, failed in their first few trades, and quit. They forgot what it was like when they first tried walking. They fell so many times before finally getting it. And then months before they were able to run. And then months before they could run for any period without running out of breadth.
Most fail because they never make it out of the crawl phase.
Hi guys and gals,
RN
I was drawn in to EJs BS antics on another thread, there it was a complete waste of time, this time though he has made some points that I would concure with even if he is completely clueless regarding the implications of what he is saying, as people have said previously, he provides absolutely no insight into how to succeed in the markets. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, 12 hour not 24 hour clock, before he comes back with some idiot reply.
1. I agree with his definition of a trader and that the rest of us are at best speculators, although many are in fact gamblers but just don't know it.
2. My personal experience is that I was never able to find a short term approach that ultimately made sense and worked effectively in the long term, or didn't outright terrify me with the size of the risk involved, and at times cost me a lot of money. I have a deep knowlege of TA, Charting and any number of approaches ad nausium, it still didn't do me any good.
3. I agree with him that the large institutions use large amounts of money to set up low risk trades and that generally they don't lose, think Carry Trades. He then draws an invalid conclusion, one where it is not possible for a speculator to emulate this approach. I regularly place trades with a nominal face value of 10-20 million with my overall position often in the 50-100 million plus nominal face value. I don't need that sort of money in my account to get these trades on, thank god for the magic of leverage/free money, that I then put to work just like the big institutions, and ultimately take my cut off the top, the key as always is risk management. Yes, I usually win just like the large institutions and normally any losses can be traced back to where I got a bit loose with my risk management, EJ this is why I value risk management so highly. I engineer these trades so that I have hedged away the vast majority of unwanted risk and then concentrate on dealing with the remaining greatly reduced risk. It's not rocket science and is really just the traditional Hedge Fund model.
4. The only person I compete with is myself as I strive to not f-ck up my risk management, like most people, I don't enjoy the pain associated with mistakes or worse still to get knocked out of the game.
5. As far as floor traders making the transition to screen, there are plenty that did but they had to change their approach, although there are also plenty like one of my brokers who didn't successfully, or chose not to make the transition. EJ, as I mentioned on a previous thread I also know several other professional speculators who like me make their living from the markets. So your blanket assertions regarding the impossability of this are simply BS.
RN, don't get annoyed with EJs rediculous comments, pity is more in order as even when he isolates important issues where most of us would seek solutions, he is simply so blinded by arrogence compounded by frustration that he remains locked in to loser mode, these people rarely change hence the need to treat them kindly and with pity, just like the poor they will always be with us.
Cheers John
RN
I was drawn in to EJs BS antics on another thread, there it was a complete waste of time, this time though he has made some points that I would concure with even if he is completely clueless regarding the implications of what he is saying, as people have said previously, he provides absolutely no insight into how to succeed in the markets. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, 12 hour not 24 hour clock, before he comes back with some idiot reply.
1. I agree with his definition of a trader and that the rest of us are at best speculators, although many are in fact gamblers but just don't know it.
2. My personal experience is that I was never able to find a short term approach that ultimately made sense and worked effectively in the long term, or didn't outright terrify me with the size of the risk involved, and at times cost me a lot of money. I have a deep knowlege of TA, Charting and any number of approaches ad nausium, it still didn't do me any good.
3. I agree with him that the large institutions use large amounts of money to set up low risk trades and that generally they don't lose, think Carry Trades. He then draws an invalid conclusion, one where it is not possible for a speculator to emulate this approach. I regularly place trades with a nominal face value of 10-20 million with my overall position often in the 50-100 million plus nominal face value. I don't need that sort of money in my account to get these trades on, thank god for the magic of leverage/free money, that I then put to work just like the big institutions, and ultimately take my cut off the top, the key as always is risk management. Yes, I usually win just like the large institutions and normally any losses can be traced back to where I got a bit loose with my risk management, EJ this is why I value risk management so highly. I engineer these trades so that I have hedged away the vast majority of unwanted risk and then concentrate on dealing with the remaining greatly reduced risk. It's not rocket science and is really just the traditional Hedge Fund model.
4. The only person I compete with is myself as I strive to not f-ck up my risk management, like most people, I don't enjoy the pain associated with mistakes or worse still to get knocked out of the game.
5. As far as floor traders making the transition to screen, there are plenty that did but they had to change their approach, although there are also plenty like one of my brokers who didn't successfully, or chose not to make the transition. EJ, as I mentioned on a previous thread I also know several other professional speculators who like me make their living from the markets. So your blanket assertions regarding the impossability of this are simply BS.
RN, don't get annoyed with EJs rediculous comments, pity is more in order as even when he isolates important issues where most of us would seek solutions, he is simply so blinded by arrogence compounded by frustration that he remains locked in to loser mode, these people rarely change hence the need to treat them kindly and with pity, just like the poor they will always be with us.
Cheers John
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Hi ScottCole, I agree , i don't have any edge,i am just thrown out in open. just trying to think hard what an Edge can be...find statistical results then execute them...but what if underlying market changed ..will this results will be still valid by the time we are done executing them..
if i have those results then chances are everyone would have those...so again we end up with as everyone has same edge so basically no one has any edge..and i think this brings to the point that what i have seen today, the market behavior , it may be not be valid tomorrow.... so i need to find something which is valid forever...? what the heck is that... still thinking ...
Hey on lighter note, i was wondering why everyone call me OP, i was thinking that it is Other Person...but just saw your post, it says Original Poster
..this discovery is good for today to keep me going...Let's get back to helping the OP @note
My respect for getting up at 4:30 to trade before your job.
First, I believe you should find a better instrument or time frame for trading than EUR/USD. EUR/USD is very tough intraday. Rather start with a cash future, like ES, YM and NQ for daytrading.
If you don't have the time to trade intraday, do swing trading, best on the hourly timeframe. You can also swing trade currencies like the EUR/USD if you like.
You asked for feedback on your trades:
Of course it's easy to say in hindsight, but I'd say your reaction is too slow. You must to make plans before any trade. Look at two things: trend and support/resistance. For your beginning, trade with the trend and use S/R for timing. That's it.
1) The first trade was contrary to the trend, started from a s/r low. The entry was very good. Your SL was beneath the S/R low? That's fine. But you must take your profit!! You see, the EUR/USD ran up to the other S/R (=1,2472). Take your profit there!
2) The second short was far too late to work with a small SL. You see how much the EUR/USD travelled down from the previous S/R at 1,2472? It's likely to get kicked out in a pullback.
Either you set your SL at the high of 1,2472 and let the trade run for a day or two, or if you want a small SL you must to get in earlier.
The best bet would have been to go short at the S/R of 1,2472 any time of the day, because this was a downtrend day.
Good luck and don't give up.
Good Morning Alex,
thanks for encouraging words. and to review my charts.
'Of course it's easy to say in hindsight, but I'd say your reaction is too slow. You must to make plans before any trade. Look at two things: trend and support/resistance. For your beginning, trade with the trend and use S/R for timing. That's it."
My reaction was slow, i should have been ALREADY there where i plan to enter..limit order...no market order...should know before hand where i will enter / exit.. analyzing S/R lines..I will trade Monday morning...
"don't give up"
I was about to give it up, i was on/off on this trading thing, too much study / research / finding with our limited time. but one gentleman suggested to put a journal..and i see help all over coming to me..its wonderful...
Hi NoDoji,
Yesterday when i read this comments, and all other comments about successfully / failed traders, I took them personally, seems like we have some kind of class conflict , two groups of traders, one successful one failed. Some people kind of born traders, while others not.
This was the reason i was not willing to write something or get help from public forum. because we are two easy to generalize who the OP is , what he knows , don't know. we just put them in one basket "Unsuccessful trader" .
I have high respect for you as a trader, I have seen your PnL in traders PnL journal, today morning as it settled down, I don't see any of the comments directly to me. but more general in nature.
I would not even call my self trader yet Sir, i know lot of things needs to be set right to get there. Problem is we don't have any education as trader,like doctors, lawyers etc .. no defined path..everyone is on there own. That's OK , this is how it is..
I will try this Monday.
Build context based solely on PA
Make a plan for each trade - then trade that plan exactly
Context in.., and of itself - is never our signal
Rather our signal is based on the PA supporting - the context PA has already created / is creating
(btw if this sentence confusing - say so and I'll break it down)
We trade... never knowing the out come of each trade
Losing trades are as much a part of normal trading..., as are winning trades
A losing trade does not mean we are wrong..., a winning trade does not mean we are right
A trade works..., or a trade breaks down - one or the other will be the result of each trade we enter
More like a dumbass redneck
So..., let get to the business of forging you into a trader
Make no mistake - you'll do most of the work
But rest assured - we'll ensure you keep you on the right path
Successful Journey Note
RN