Will i ever get it.

[note]

Hey Note

How about telling a little bit about your trading - what you've tried / how you trade / what you look at /key on

No "secrets" - just an overview.., so we have general insight into what you're doing / looking at / thinking


What are your thoughts on uncertainty..., losing trades

What level of discipline..., patience..., humility do you bring to the table

I know you're intelligent - do you think that has any baring on one's ability to trade

Do you think human behavior can be mathematically modeled consistently



Next

Below are 3 steps.., that imo.., lay the ground work for successful trading


Where are you with each

Step 1 - Build PA reading / context creating skills (technical skills)

Step 2 - Build one's approach / methodology..., identify the setup(s) signal(s)

Step 3 - Forge one's self into a trader


Gotta get our bearings sorted out before heading down whatever path

btw - I trust you're not hesitant to get yer hands dirty (do the necessary work)


RN

"What are your thoughts on uncertainty..., losing trades"
This causes fear, sweating , heightened alertness. I have felt it when i just increase my bet size to mini lot ..and start losing..because i don't know what lies ahead...i don't have any approach to deal with it..I want certainty..which is what i am looking for..will i get it or not that's another matter..
What i think is that every price point is unique, either it will move up or move down. but certainly it has effects which it carries over from its previous points, which either drags it down or push ahead up..its like deck or cards, where chances of a particular card appearing changes based on previous card..i know this can happen only when we have limited set of entries, and our set of price points is too large, which add more complexity to make it certain..or make it nearly impossible to predict next outcome...but then to make it or appear it certain..we bring concepts of support / resistance , to limit our space..

Good thing is that price moves in a line..and not like colored spots of disco light, appearing here and there at different times..as it moves in line..and is continuous..we can stand guard every time price tries to cross, now how many time we will have to do this , that price will cross our door and run..or will even cross it..that is uncertain...
God only knows..what the heck is future...or if you have some real information like who is buying /selling etc..or exactly where to look...based on just charts..we can i think just try our best..

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/rig.156162/


BTW, I have found some approach which seems like working for me. now every time i am thinking of my older ways of trading..i am getting scarred that i will lose this new way of trading beautifully if i again think about my previous methods..some switch is there in our brain..

 

[Redneck]

"What are your thoughts on uncertainty..., losing trades"

This causes fear,

sweating ,

heightened alertness.

I have felt it when i just increase my bet size to mini lot ..and start losing..

i don't know what lies ahead...

i don't have any approach to deal with it..

I want certainty..which is what i am looking for..

will i get it or not that's another matter..

The only certainty in trading;

is that which we each create

then follow through on via our consistent and repeated actions - to make it certain

The entry - must trade every time our signal present
Our risk - must take every stop loss we set
The profit target - must exit when price hits it
The willingness.., patience.., persistence..., and discipline

This is about all the certainty that will ever exist in trading

It is limiting.., but at the same time liberating

You up for this?

What i think is that every price point is unique, either it will move up or move down. but certainly it has effects which it carries over from its previous points, which either drags it down or push ahead up..its like deck or cards, where chances of a particular card appearing changes based on previous card..i know this can happen only when we have limited set of entries, and our set of price points is too large, which add more complexity to make it certain..or make it nearly impossible to predict next outcome...but then to make it or appear it certain..

You ever read "Trading in the Zone"

If not - do so

we bring concepts of support / resistance , to limit our space..

We do not bring these concepts

Mkt creates these - which we identify.., then exploit

Good thing is that price moves in a line..and not like colored spots of disco light, appearing here and there at different times..

as it moves in line..and is continuous..

Mkt is never random - only people's actions - which creates random results for them - they are then left with the conclusion - the mkt is random

Price movement is contiguous - not continuous (there are session breaks)

God only knows..what the heck is future...

or if you have some real information like who is buying /selling etc..or

exactly where to look...

based on just charts..

we can i think just try our best..

We (traders) never know the future - whether it the outcome of a trade..., or what price will do next

Good news is - we don't need to

We do.., do our best - so long as our best includes;

Judiciously picking our tools (could include indicators.., or not)
Developing our technical skills (reading PA / creating proper context)
Developing an approach / methodology
Creating a trading plan for each trade
Protecting capital first..., making money second

btw - having.., then trading - insider information - is illegal

BTW, I have found some approach which seems like working for me. now every time i am thinking of my older ways of trading..

i am getting scarred that i will lose this new way of trading beautifully if i again think about my previous methods..some switch is there in our brain..

Write it down..., include every little detail you have

Then refine..., as you see fit

This would be the beginning of your methodology / approach

RN

 

[note]

Think of it in another way. If statistics say that 90% of those who tried to cross this road ended up ran over and dead. Would you still consider it a good idea to cross ?

No i would not cross..definitely not...will try to go over bridge..
Do you know any bridge exists in trading ?? I am trying to find that bridge..may be i can not find it here..but if someone have already seen it, 1% chance, then may be another 1% chance, that he/she can direct me there...

 

[ExperiencedJoe]

No i would not cross..definitely not...will try to go over bridge..
Do you know any bridge exists in trading ?? I am trying to find that bridge..may be i can not find it here..but if someone have already seen it, 1% chance, then may be another 1% chance, that he/she can direct me there...

How many things have you done in life that has a 1% or lets be positive with extra positive waves 10% chance of success ? Does that sound like a good gamble ? Isn't it better to go to the casino and put all you money on black or red. The chance there is significantly greater than 10%.

Yes, there are bridges. Those come with considerable tollgate fees.

What i think is that every price point is unique, either it will move up or move down.

That's obviously not the case in you experience. Your experience would have told you the price spent most of its time moving towards your stop, only some of the time it goes the other way. Just because you are "turning a new leaf" in your trading, why do you suppose the market will change in sympathy ?

To make it in the market takes considerable amount of understanding of the market and considerable amount of capital. What have you got ? All you have is a positive feeling that this time will be different because you will be getting internet help. This is not enough by 100's of miles. If doing what the books say would produce profit, wouldn't everyone already be doing it ?

So how long do you plan to go at this ? This is really a loaded question.

 

[Yukoner]

Think of it in another way. If statistics say that 90% of those who tried to cross this road ended up ran over and dead. Would you still consider it a good idea to cross ? Here is another reason why people fail, that they think the market is a mechanical device like an ATM, that you can just press the right combinations of buttons and the cash will come out. The market is nothing like that. It is made of flesh and blood. If you win, someone is going to lose his lunch or dinner money. Unfortunately for most people, they bet against the richest banks on the other side. The banks will certainly not lose the lunch or dinner money for the people they employ.

Imagine you are on the street looking at someone counting his lunch money and you try taking it from him, what will happen ? Taking money from those in the market is a bit like that, except those counting the money are the gorilla banks. The chance of getting hold of that glinting cash is, well, use your imagination.

To succeed, you'd need considerably more than positive thinking and positive encouragement. If only positive waves are what you need, then you will find plenty because everyone here is a winner. Some, like tuveyd, will 10 times their money by this time next year.

I thought the fact that you considered the possibility of giving up was because you might have glimpsed something. If not and you can afford it, then yes, it's worthwhile getting some genuine experience on it. It will save you all the wondering if you have never done it.

I hate hearing that stupid statistic that 90% of traders fail. That is only valid if you make the definition of trader to be so low, that anyone who tries to buy or sell in the financial markets is now a "trader".

That is like saying anyone who gives any type of first aid, including bandages is a doctor...

How about we raise the standard of what we define a trader to be? I think then you will find the success rate is higher. Rough guess would be 80/20 like most other endeavors.

 

[Turveyd]

I hate hearing that stupid statistic that 90% of traders fail. That is only valid if you make the definition of trader to be so low, that anyone who tries to buy or sell in the financial markets is now a "trader".

That is like saying anyone who gives any type of first aid, including bandages is a doctor...

How about we raise the standard of what we define a trader to be? I think then you will find the success rate is higher. Rough guess would be 80/20 like most other endeavors.

It's like my mate, who says a doctor has never saved a life as we all die in the end, arrgghhh!!

How many things in life offer a 1% chance of financial independence to the average Joe!

That's not saying, it's not going to be a fun and expensive journey for most and a waste of time for 99%, but it's fun, it's a challenge and must be beat.

And when cracked, you'll realise just how simple it is which is really annoying.

 

[KDASFTG]

Greetings, I thought you might enjoy reading this.

Are Your Odds Of Becoming A Successful Trader 1 in 10? A Surprising And Encouraging Answer William J. Welsh, J.D., Ph.D.

It is often said that a new stock or commodities trader has only a one in ten chance of succeeding. Is this true? If we think about it a bit we can quickly determine that not only is this untrue, it is absurd. To the contrary, we will see that your chances of success or failure are always 100%! First, though, let's accept as a fact that research shows that only one in ten traders ever becomes successful.

I am not sure whether this in fact is indeed true or not, but for the purposes of the point of I wish to make, lets assume it is true. Let us assume that only one in ten traders actually succeeds. The question, then becomes as follows: "Since it is true that only one trader in ten succeeds, does this mean that your odds of success are only one in ten -- and that, therefore, the odds are hopelessly against you?" The answer is no. The fact that only one in ten succeeds does NOT mean this is YOUR chance of success. Here's why.

A person who concludes that his chances of success are one in ten has committed the logical fallacy of applying the concept of "odds" improperly. "Odds" -- i.e, probability -- can only logically apply to a future event that is outside of your control.

An example is the lottery Since the winning number is outside of anyone's control, the odds of any one person winning or losing can be determined. Now, if winning and losing in the markets was outside of your control, then using this approach would make sense. But, in actual fact, winning or losing in the markets is not only NOT outside of your control, it is TOTALLY and ONLY under your control. Each and every person who wants to trade has the same odds of becoming successful or failing -100%! If you do the right things to become successful, your chances of succeeding are 100%. If you do the wrong things, your chances of failure are likewise 100%.

The encouraging truth at the bottom of this line of reasoning is that you and I need not fear the fact (which we accepted as true) that only one in ten succeed. Instead, we should embrace with confidence another fact -- that every single person who does the right thing will succeed and will be the successful one of the ten. And that every single person who does not do the right thing will fail and will be one of the other nine of the ten. Of course, the above analysis requires that you take responsibility for yourself and make sure you learn the right thing to do.

This is your responsibility and nothing comes easy. On the other hand, when you understand the way success and failure works you are freed from the fallacy that life or trading is luck. And, you are free to set about the task of learning what you need to learn with the confidence that your goal can and will be reached when you have learned to do the right things and then do them. Rather than "proving" your odds of success are one in ten.

The old adage that only one in ten succeeds merely "proves" that most people will not learn what they need to learn to succeed This may be a sad commentary about people, or an indicator of how hard it is to learn to trade, or an illustration of the lack of good trading information. But it has absolutely no control over your chances of success. Only you have the control and only you determine whether you succeed or fail.

KDASFTG

 

[ExperiencedJoe]

I hate hearing that stupid statistic that 90% of traders fail. That is only valid if you make the definition of trader to be so low, that anyone who tries to buy or sell in the financial markets is now a "trader".

That is like saying anyone who gives any type of first aid, including bandages is a doctor...

How about we raise the standard of what we define a trader to be? I think then you will find the success rate is higher. Rough guess would be 80/20 like most other endeavors.

I have made no mention of trader anywhere. I believe the statistics relates to people who have a retail account. I have seen no instances of an ex-professional trader succeeding with a retail account either.

So how exactly does changing the definition of a trader improves the chance of the OP's success ?

My personal definition of a trader is the bank employee who, with or without the aid of machines, takes and fills orders from the retail account holder either directly or through an intermediary such as a broker. A trader is someone who runs or is part of a business that buys and sells from customers.

The retails account holders are customers, speculators, gamblers. The real trader on the opposite of their purchase, their gamble, their speculation is in fact very successful and wins 99% of the time and makes money every day and virtually on every trade. However, I have seen no instances of a trader or ex-trader who upon becoming a customer, speculator, gambler proving to be successful publicly.

I am not sure where your 80/20 comes from. But I welcome your demonstrating winning 80% of the time and losing 20% of the time. In any case your 80/20 has nothing to do with reality. In reality, 99% of the traders win, and 99% of the retail speculators, lose. I welcome anyone proving otherwise.

 

[ExperiencedJoe]

The old adage that only one in ten succeeds merely "proves" that most people will not learn what they need to learn to succeed

Irrelevant to the retail account holder. The retail account holder fails because he has neither the tools nor capital, and more often than not the knowledge, to allow him to be successful. Just having the knowledge to succeed makes no difference. This is why no instances of ex-professional trader, who has the expertise, succeeded with a retail account.

A trader without a bank's capital, an F1 driver without his team and race car, and a pro tennis player without his coach and commercial sponsors are all dead in the water. Makes little difference what they know.

A better adage would be: if you are clueless about the game or the necessary environment for the game to proceed, you will be a loser.

How many people on ET understand the function of capital ? Only one, me.

 

[Redneck]

Experiencedjoe = emg incarnate – and his bullshit rhetoric…, “retail traders fail…, they just fail”

Likes to bait individual traders into a contrived argument regarding success / ability to provide bona fides

So he can then “show them up”

=====================

Well EJ /emg

There's been 15 trading days in Dec so far – I’m sure you have a PnL – for each

I certainly do

RN