"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?

[SWScapital]

Quote from marketsurfer:

you are a character, man, a character! i mean that in a good way.

Global Quantitative Financial Research by Mark Brown www.markbrown.com so what your website states about quantitative is actually TA in disquise?? LMAO!

Can any approach that mines old data and extrapolates inefficiencies can be considered TA? The study of price action is TA... that what you guys dont get. TA is not simply a bunch of lagging indicators canned and sold the herd. It is much more

What do quants do if its not mining price data looking for an edge? What do technicians do if it is not mining price data looking for an edge?

 

[powerfade]

Quote from marketsurfer:

What is being discussed here as evidence of TA working is simply surviorship bias on the personal level. Most can't see the forrest for the trees as we are too close to what is actually happening.

if possible, may i ask that everyone step back and look at this as an observer and not a participant. in any group of people making predictions based on anything, there will be some that seem uncannilly correct, even for a long period of time. this means nothing--it's just the way things work. Yeah, some TA can provide a structure by which to make decisions, but the results of the decisions still do not provide valid statistical edge over any over decision making structure. Money management and guessing right is the key for the informational malnourished retail trader--- thinking that an edge exists in TA is foolhardy and a crutch. This does not mean that there is no value in TA-- as a subjective structure with intuition/experience applied its a good way to illustrate the market, not predict the market

I am familiar withseveral firm who have, in total, scrutinized over 500 traders ( most of whom use TA) who claim to have an edge complete with statements to "prove it" --- only ONE actually had anything of value and could make money. Needless to say, this traders edge was not TA based.

regards,

surf

ps. as further proof of the above--- if TA worked--why don't prop firms like bright trading, et al teach TA as a primary method?? reason is, NO EDGE.

You must have loved the 1990s, when all that Derrida nonsense was making the rounds in American universities. You might as well have taken this straight from the pages of Deconstruction 101, with all that 'step back and see this as an observer'.

It's a linguistic trick (or an attempt at one, it actually isn't very good) to suggest that TA has value except as a predictor. I don't use TA to predict anything.

I notice you backed off your claim that TA isn't math. That canard would have been pretty tough to maintain. Damn the internet and the goddamn search function, right?

Everything you posted is pure assertion. Sorry, surf, but that's the fact. The reality is that there are thousands of traders using TA on a daily basis and taking consistent money out of the markets. I agree wholeheartedly with the guy above who said that those who run TA down are the ones that couldn't make a go of it themselves.

Exactly the same thing with daytrading. We get these threads that claim 'It's impossible to make money in daytrading and I've heard rumours of the statistics to prove it'. Meanwhile, successful daytraders are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from SWScapital:Can any approach that mines old data and extrapolates inefficiencies can be considered TA?

of course i think this is the case, this is what i live for, and the more obscure or forgotten the better. mb

 

[SWScapital]

Quote from MarkBrown:

of course i think this is the case, this is what i live for, and the more obscure or forgotten the better. mb

Think you missed my point. I was defending your comparision of TA-Quantative approach that marketsurfer pointed out on your site.

Agree 100%...

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from SWScapital:

Think you missed my point. I was defending your comparision of TA-Quantative approach that marketsurfer pointed out on your site. Agree 100%...

no i knew you were agreeing i just confirmed it! hell i could make studying the entrails patterns of worms work for me i would try and write some tracking software.

mb

ps and yea damm those search engines and the people who know how to use them ouch...

 

[BlindLemonBoosh]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Worthless article based on some summer intern's "experience." If fundamental analysis is so great, why do 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the S&P 500?

Management fees.

 

[samus]

TA is nothing more than an edge... the odds that price has a higher probability to move in a certain direction. Thats all it is... nothing more. Trade your edge with predefined risk. If the trade doesn't work based on your predefined risk, then close the freaking position and wait for the next edge. Trading is nothing more than a pattern recognition numbers game. Vegas operates on the same principle... thats why they're swimming in cash. The games have an edge in their favor so they win in the long run. Some of you guys make this way too hard than it needs to be.

 

[cap'ncod]

What is that assertion, "the little man simply provides liquidity for the real money". Here's an idea: the big boys use TA to get the best entries because they know where the 'liquidity' is lurking. Jesus, just look at the balance sheets of the leviathons, I hate the fact but they will always be in control, power will always be in control, the rest are simply 'liquidity'. Not that you can't exploit the set up but as a uniform 'force' us small idividual players will, as a group, lose out.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from powerfade:
<b>You must have loved the 1990s, when all that Derrida nonsense was making the rounds in American universities. You might as well have taken this straight from the pages of Deconstruction 101, with all that 'step back and see this as an observer'.</b>

clever, but im just stating facts. how to observe a process 101.



<b>It's a linguistic trick (or an attempt at one, it actually isn't very good) to suggest that TA has value except as a predictor. I don't use TA to predict anything.</b>

then why use it? if you are not predicting the odds are greater of a continuation move in the same direction after entry--what good is TA? furthermore, if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times--- would you call this a heads trend? what would it look like on a chart?? im not talking about analysis here, but rather hard core trading, entry/exit---- TA does have value as an illustrative tool.

<b>I notice you backed off your claim that TA isn't math. That canard would have been pretty tough to maintain. Damn the internet and the goddamn search function, right? </b>

i have not backed off. everything can be shown to be math in some aspect---art and music are math--- art and music are good analogies to TA--subjective, personally driven experiences without testable qualities.

<b>Everything you posted is pure assertion. Sorry, surf, but that's the fact. The reality is that there are thousands of traders using TA on a daily basis and taking consistent money out of the markets. I agree wholeheartedly with the guy above who said that those who run TA down are the ones that couldn't make a go of it themselves.</b>

this is simply not true. there are not 1000's of traders using TA succesfully all the time. there are 1000's of traders using TA who win some and lose some--with the difference being money management, speed, informational advantage, and specialized knowledge of the instrument being traded. furthermore, they are not taking money out of the market--they are taking money from other traders who OBVIOUSLY interpreted the SAME DATA in the OPPOSITE MANNER--- how can this be???

<b>Exactly the same thing with daytrading. We get these threads that claim 'It's impossible to make money in daytrading and I've heard rumours of the statistics to prove it'. Meanwhile, successful daytraders are laughing all the way to the bank.</b>

yes, ofcourse they exist--- but the vast majority use other methods than TA. why don't prop firms teach TA as a primary method of entering trades? This question shoud answer your question.


surf

 

[cap'ncod]

Perhaps orthadox TA is simply a way of pinpointing 'dark pools'. Our faith should be heterodox not orthodox otherwise we are the exploited masses. The gullible who believe that if we are good and respectful we will be rewarded. In this way TA can be a crutch like religion. Without sounding like Marx, those in authority and those who WIELD the power pull us by the nose to the green pastures where we are then summarily slaughtered.