"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?

[NihabaAshi]

Quote from austinp:

...The third category includes everything NOT INCLUDED in the first two above. To be more clearly defined, everything and anything derived from pure price action and/or a chart without regard to fundamental supply/demand.

Technical analysis fully encompasses and includes: pure price action. Anything visible on a price chart. Anything derived from price action past or present. Anything derived from a derivative of price action past or present.

That is the definition of Technical Analysis. If you arrive at a conclusion for trade entry action based on ANYTHING gleaned from a price chart at its core, you are trading technical analysis. Welcome to our club. Some of our many member can be found in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113193

It's the one and only (with zero exceptions) place on this entire forum where you won't see perennial losers and non-traders polluting the truth in some way or another.

***

I've been berated before when saying this forum is geared for entertainment but it's a poor place for pure education. Why? Because too many threads just like this confound, confuse and derail aspiring traders from evolution to success. ANY EFFORT promoted that knowingly or otherwise steers someone astray from the long road toward success as a trader = hindrance to education.

Right or right?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113193 is where you can measure the merits of technical analysis with real math as the judge. In the end, math is our only black & white balance of judgement... all innocuous studies and blog blather or nothing more than mere noise.

Well said.

It's amazing how many TA bashers get confused, argumentive, exclude tactic or attempt to minimize when actual trading results with verification is profitable via TA.

Most TA bashers say its lucky, art (not science), profits won't last long or if the profitable trader doesn't reveal his/her TA approach than the trader must not be using TA.

I'll post that link one more time that shows some traders are consistently profitable using TA.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113193

As I said many times, as long as there is at least one trader that is consistently profitable via using TA regardless how it is defined (art, science or voodo)...

The statements that TA doesn't work, useless or nonsense is flawed and in error.

Further, if ET is here 7 years from now...

There will be a Trader P/L 2009 - 2015 to go along with the 2005 - 2008 threads.

Eventually the TA bashers will need to come to grips that not only have they fail to do what others are succeeding in doing...

They will need to realize their blanket statements are really just to provoke in hopes gaining an audience for whatever clandestine purpose.

Don't lose yourself into the debate about if its art or science. Instead, concentrate on one thing, do you have the ability to profit from it???

Heck, if someone is unable to profit consistently from TA...

They can always start a blog or write an article under the facade of technical research and use research by other TA bashers to bash TA.

Mark

 

[MarkBrown]

i can make money with ta or fd either but ned davis opened my eyes to techno-fundamental trading. pretty hard to beat but takes lots of work. given a choice i will take ta over fd cause ta is like throwing out a big net, you'll catch something. where fd is like trying to hit a small target.

mb

 

[HolyGrail]

Let's face it. People who say TA doesn't work have not found a way to use TA profitably. Since they figure they are not stupid, TA as a profit system must be flawed. Where as profitable TA traders just laugh at this nonsense.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Brandonf:

I've always been confused by the people who wont predict anything. I mean I take things one day at a time, but as you correctly pointed out the very act of entering a trade is predicting something - even if that prediction is based upon solid evidence. Also, there is a book some of you might be interested in, I cant recall the auther, but its title is something like Fact Based T/A, which tries to quantify any number of T/A patterns and indicators.

Brandon

yes, well said, brandon.

it's "evidence based TA" by David Aronson-- a great guy and a good book.

regards,

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

What is being discussed here as evidence of TA working is simply surviorship bias on the personal level. Most can't see the forrest for the trees as we are too close to what is actually happening.

if possible, may i ask that everyone step back and look at this as an observer and not a participant. in any group of people making predictions based on anything, there will be some that seem uncannilly correct, even for a long period of time. this means nothing--it's just the way things work. Yeah, some TA can provide a structure by which to make decisions, but the results of the decisions still do not provide valid statistical edge over any over decision making structure. Money management and guessing right is the key for the informational malnourished retail trader--- thinking that an edge exists in TA is foolhardy and a crutch. This does not mean that there is no value in TA-- as a subjective structure with intuition/experience applied its a good way to illustrate the market, not predict the market

I am familiar withseveral firm who have, in total, scrutinized over 500 traders ( most of whom use TA) who claim to have an edge complete with statements to "prove it" --- only ONE actually had anything of value and could make money. Needless to say, this traders edge was not TA based.

regards,

surf

ps. as further proof of the above--- if TA worked--why don't prop firms like bright trading, et al teach TA as a primary method?? reason is, NO EDGE.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from crgarcia:


hang up...

They would actually ask for past performance, then you show some simple charts.
Not for an in-depth analysis, they just want to see that the chart resembles more or less an uptrend, just to sleep easily at night.

actually, many would hang up.

TA is a great marketing tool and is used in this manner by wallstreet. trading tool is another story!

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from marketsurfer:I am familiar with a firm that has scrutinized over 500 traders ( most of whom use TA) who claim to have an edge complete with statements to "prove it" --- only ONE actually had anything of value and could make money. Needless to say, this traders edge was not TA based.

regards,

surf

wow pop my bubble you just made my wife's day cause now she won't have to fret over making those 138,000.00 a month helicopter payments on that new md i ordered. thinking i was going to continue being lucky using ta trading. i also better get a subscription to investors daily quick and get to reading.

mb

ps i guess that puts a hold on living in geneva too, crap! not to mention my excuse to get a gallardo cause it's four wheel drive and i would need that in geneva. man the reaper he did visit! where is that firm i want to visit them stinkers..

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from MarkBrown:

wow pop my bubble you just made my wife's day cause now she won't have to fret over making those 138,000.00 a month helicopter payments on that new md i ordered. thinking i was going to continue being lucky using ta trading. i also better get a subscription to investors daily quick and get to reading.

mb

ps i guess that puts a hold on living in geneva too, crap! not to mention my excuse to get a gallardo cause it's four wheel drive and i would need that in geneva. man the reaper he did visit! where is that firm i want to visit them stinkers..

you are a character, man, a character! i mean that in a good way.

Global Quantitative Financial Research by Mark Brown www.markbrown.com so what your website states about quantitative is actually TA in disquise?? LMAO!

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from MarkBrown:

thinking i was going to continue being lucky using ta trading. i also better get a subscription to investors daily quick and get to reading.

lol, that's funny

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from marketsurfer:

you are a character, man, a character! i mean that in a good way.

Global Quantitative Financial Research by Mark Brown www.markbrown.com so what your website states about quantitative is actually TA in disquise?? LMAO!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_research

i hold that i can induce magic, voodoo, ta, fa, fd, ad, wt and a multitude of other junk into a system that will still make money.

ta is like building a concrete form, once built right you pour the concrete in there and it has to fit the form with some help from a vibrator of course. those vibrations are noise, you, me, et, the tv all are noise. all noise no matter the source is valuable and can be used build a system. so the analysis of products to build system is endless and not limited but only to the capacity of the little human mind which many people have.

mb

thank's