Why TA does not work

marketsurfer · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from ARDL:

you are failing in the tst combine and getting housed with the wfc trade in your journal. not sure how you have any credibility.

In case you didn't realize it, having been brain washed by the never lose traders on elite, most traders lose often. It is the outsized but less common huge wins that make up for the consistent small losses. A noob is easily identified by your line of thinking, its not uncommon, you will learn over time.

This is trading 101, unless you are a hersheyite or another member of a deluded cult.

surf

ARDL · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

In case you didn't realize it, having been brain washed by the never lose traders on elite, most traders lose often. It is the outsized but less common huge wins that make up for the consistent small losses. A noob is easily identified by your line of thinking, its not uncommon, you will learn over time.

This is trading 101, unless you are a hersheyite or another member of a deluded cult.

surf

says the guy down $4,220 in the tst combine.

marketsurfer · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from ARDL:

says the guy down $4,220 in the tst combine.

Check again, friend.

Win or lose, the TA folks here don't even have the confidence to participate. It's very telling.

surf

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 15, 2012

Plenty of confidence, absolutely zero incentive. It's called analyzing a trade and passing on it because it provides you zero upside.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Check again, friend. Win or lose, the TA folks here don't even have the confidence to participate. It's very telling.

surf

marketsurfer · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Plenty of confidence, absolutely zero incentive. It's called analyzing a trade and passing on it because it provides you zero upside.

Hmmm, a 150k, can't lose trading account, is zero upside? Which I remind you, can be traded along side your own clearly huge account. BUT, You would rather keep risking your own funds? Ok, whatever you say.

Still a very weak excuse. But I would expect no less-- you( and the other TA true believers) have built a persona that wins most of the time in this fantasy land--- it would be devastating to face reality under controlled conditions such as the combine. it's ok, everyone has to survive somehow!

surf

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 15, 2012

Yes, thanks, I would. If something ain't broke, I don't try to fix it. This has worked for me for over 12 years so I'm going to continue to rely fully on my own funds.

Quote from marketsurfer:

BUT, You would rather keep risking your own funds? Ok, whatever you say.

surf

NoDoji · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

Hmmm, a 150k, can't lose trading account, is zero upside? Which I remind you, can be traded along side your own clearly huge account. BUT, You would rather keep risking your own funds? Ok, whatever you say.

Still a very weak excuse. But I would expect no less-- you( and the other TA true believers) have built a persona that wins most of the time in this fantasy land--- it would be devastating to face reality under controlled conditions such as the combine. it's ok, everyone has to survive somehow!

surf

I don't need funding, so sharing a portion of my profits is NOT zero upside.

My trading plan has fixed rules, which makes it easy to apply. There's no price driver, fundamental, news-based, too high/too low decisions to make. If price does X, place an order at Y, and a stop at Z. Stay with target unless a reversal signal appears and new trade is triggered. The only discretionary decision to make is if price runs through target with conviction, there's the option to lock in the minimum target and let the winner run using any method desired.

I wouldn't sell my plan or any system based on it for any price. What price do you put on 10,000 hours of my life and a consistently profitable trading system?

marketsurfer · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from NoDoji:

I don't need funding, so sharing a portion of my profits is NOT zero upside.

I wouldn't sell my plan or any system based on it for any price. What price do you put on 10,000 hours of my life and a consistently profitable trading system?

Yet you teach it for free to your online friends? is this correct?

NoDoji · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yet you teach it for free to your online friends? is this correct?

No, when I mentor traders I guide them to discovering exactly what I discovered so it's their very own. At one time I tried teaching the rules to people without the understanding behind it and they either didn't understand what I was doing or if they did were afraid to trade this way because it feels counter-intuitive. The market rewards that which is difficult.

It's easy to say "I'm buying here, I'm selling here, blah, blah, blah..." and have no stop and average down and hope and pray. That's so easy to do because you don't have to admit you're "wrong" until "The Market" lets you out with a profit or screws you.

It's difficult to spend thousands of hours developing a system with an edge only to find that that it feels like you're doing the opposite of what you should be doing and then spending another chunk of time working on the mindset to trade the system.

That's why so many people automate their systems; we're notorious for second guessing systems based on pure uncertainty with odds in your favor.

Birds and rats are far better designed for profitable trading than humans:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/forecasting-is-for-the-birds-and-rats/

Tonkadad · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from NoDoji:

Birds and rats are far better designed for profitable trading than humans:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/forecasting-is-for-the-birds-and-rats/

That is so funny. I guess we have a little to much brain power.

In the experiment, researchers flash two lights, one green and one red, onto a screen. Four out of five times, itâs green; the other time, the red light flashes. But the exact sequence is kept random.

When rewarded for correct picks, rats and pigeons quickly discover the best strategy is to always pick green, guaranteeing an 80 percent correct-pick rate.

Humans, however, tried to anticipate when the red light would come on. This misguided strategy, on average, leads people to pick the next flash accurately only 68 percent of the time.