You have to analyse all together price trend, volume action and volatility. Then it works. There always be odds that something happens, like QCOR court's call and a stock may plunge down. TA does not help you in such situations. That is why I mostly focused in index analysis and trading index tracking ETFs. They are not affected by such news and TA results are consistent.
Why TA does not work
- Thread starter JMN459
- Start date
I HIGHLY reccomended "evidence based TA" by Aronson for those who insist on using this archaic trading method. At the least, Aronson 's book will teach you the right way to think about it. Would like to hear your thoughts on the book. It will destroy many of your idols.
surf
surf
at that cut half of QCOR, when it dropped like stone, dropped to 23ish, I felt enough, I jumped in at 23.8sh, and sold 33ish.
I did nott look at the chart totally!
TA like those EMA, will greatly slow your action, distract you. you try to make sure, but backfires. I just feel there must be some rebounce around 23ish, when I saw it started to rise in the quote, I immediately bought it, sold it half hours late. I did this kind of cases many times.
I remember KCG dropped 3under, bought it at 2.8ish premarket and late sold it in the opening at 4.0+.
if I used EMA or inciators to trade, I get to lose tons of money. all what I need know is: do my best to be ahead one step of the market, try to beat it several steps ahead whether get in or lock in profit. I do not want to be stuck in a after fact analysis. everything in hindsight is clear, but when you look at those unprinted bars, most people just hesitate, they could not imagine "what pictures are there?".
like this week, if you traded the market long enough, you know wall street most time dropped the market just as the earning seaning started.
when you look at the chart before this week, everything is great, typical uptrend, even looks like it will break up. those all created illusions. but after this weeks' closing, you realized that is reversal from the chart. even you know this fact, can it help you trade better next week?
can you see the chart between 8.14.2012 to 8.19.2012? TA can answer it and print those five bars? NO! that proves TA is non-snese.
that is why I say those people obsessed with TA just like those people seek tips.
I did nott look at the chart totally!
TA like those EMA, will greatly slow your action, distract you. you try to make sure, but backfires. I just feel there must be some rebounce around 23ish, when I saw it started to rise in the quote, I immediately bought it, sold it half hours late. I did this kind of cases many times.
I remember KCG dropped 3under, bought it at 2.8ish premarket and late sold it in the opening at 4.0+.
if I used EMA or inciators to trade, I get to lose tons of money. all what I need know is: do my best to be ahead one step of the market, try to beat it several steps ahead whether get in or lock in profit. I do not want to be stuck in a after fact analysis. everything in hindsight is clear, but when you look at those unprinted bars, most people just hesitate, they could not imagine "what pictures are there?".
like this week, if you traded the market long enough, you know wall street most time dropped the market just as the earning seaning started.
when you look at the chart before this week, everything is great, typical uptrend, even looks like it will break up. those all created illusions. but after this weeks' closing, you realized that is reversal from the chart. even you know this fact, can it help you trade better next week?
can you see the chart between 8.14.2012 to 8.19.2012? TA can answer it and print those five bars? NO! that proves TA is non-snese.
that is why I say those people obsessed with TA just like those people seek tips.
It's a somewhat interesting but boring book.
The TA of cornixforex, nodoji and others can't easily be tested "the Aronson way" - something you would understand if you took some time to try to grok what they are all about, and if you had read the book.
In Aronsons own words (p 450): "Perhaps the biggest deficiency of the case study was the failure to consider complex rules. This is a severe defect for several reasons. First, few TA practitioners, subjective or objective, restrict themselves to decisions based on one rule. [...]. Second, complex rules should produce superior perfomance on difficult prediction problems, such as financial markets."
If you're serious about backtesting the book describes one approach and a mindset, and it's valuable to read. But it doesn't prove or disprove anything.
Ahhh....Nice to see someone who has a clue. TA tells you absolutely nothing about the probability of what the market will do given X. Most folks think if you count 100 ascending triangles and 60 of them make a minimum of a 10% profitable move then the probability of an ascending triangle generating a minimum of a profitable 10% move is 60%. This type of logic demonstrates that you know absolutely nothing about the laws of probability and you need to get your butt in a statistics class.
That being said, TA does have value and TA black boxes can be programmed to generate profits for a period of time, until....market conditions change.
That being said, TA does have value and TA black boxes can be programmed to generate profits for a period of time, until....market conditions change.
Can you please provide the links to your real-time calls for these trades?
More importantly, in the spirit of Brother Surf who is demonstrating the superiority of his price driver approach to trading by posting trade calls in his journal, would it be possible to post your next week's trades here in real time, so we can get a feel for how well your "feeling" based methods work?
Thanks in advance.
In trading the prerequisite for being in markets is to know how markets work. Notice ET does not have a forum on how markets work.
Partnering with market is done with a contract where each party knows very well the turf of the other party. The trader operates a trading platform. The market "TELLS" the trader what to do and when to do it. The trader obeys.
Most traders do not trust their patner and, thus, is created a major deficiency in the wiring between the trader and the market. Fear, anxiety and anger wreck the necessary "extent" of the connections.
For expert trading, the cause of becoming expert is the minimization of all impediments in the partnership. By having traded for 54 years, I got to see that the market provided information flow changed slowly over time. I used this slow change in information to keep securely connected to how the market works. The market didn't change how it works, but today the "reading" of the market is different, better, and more productive.
Risk is a common measure made by operators (the behavior finance) and observers (those on the outside who cannot understand how making money works).
Ignorance is not permitted whan a person is expert trading. This is how expectancy got organized, monitored and measured. Expectancy is an indirect measure of ignorance.
the cohesive aspect of "reading and obeying the market" comes down to five intertwined Orders Of Events (OOE's) unfolding. All are finite and very orderly. It is like tank treads moving the tank forward. Each pad is in an order and the pads stay in the order. I watch the place where the upcoming pad is going downward to meet the surface and be the motivation of the forward movement of the market at the surface. The surface is context that is happening and the rising bads going into storage are history and not useful.
The surface pads are the context of the market cycle and what controls the market can turn the tread pair left or right.
I know dominance and non-dominance at all times. For me right to left is dominance.
On a tank you can see it turning by looking at two orders of events. For me they are the "test procedure" and the "routine". From this I know the third OOE called the "primary trend" and the fourth OOE called the "secondary trend" (for zooming in on the last trend sub fractal move). Lastly, for me, the market either continues or changes. Here the OOE is to use one or the other subsystems to measure an End Effect or measure a Continuation Effect. this OOE is a simple alternating OOE.
So for me, I expect to make money on each and every trade. I know everything there is to know about how the market works. My ignorance level is miniscule. A swan of any color (the public only has its first swan color (black) other than the assumed "all swans are white" motif). I have zeroed out the expectancy risk.
The tanks story informs you of the completeness of my systemmic approach. the risk of an incomplete system is zeroed out because I have considered all cases and I know how the cases flow in a relativistic manner. This is the essence of a RDBMS (Relative Data Base Management System. In the naming game, it is common to work relatively. Eistein and his successors did the same, you will notice.
My system was deduced and not done inductively. risk in markets is largely defined by those whose fortress is induction. that is why they have the limits they do and why their emotions are fear, anxiety and anger. If you bet you get the consequences emotionally.
The "routine" eliminated betting. OODA is not what I use; it is inherently risky as most papers have proven. Instead, I use leading functions and operators to produce signals from indicators composed of functions.
The underwater thing I do not experience. the example of undrwater is just an event omission in the order of events of the market cycle. Two trends make up a market cycle. I extract the full offer of each. The beginning of trend overlap, to me, is the indicator signal of the trend initial OOE. Profits are taken and a new postion is established. The events that follow make money instead of going underwater and losing past gains. This is just a diffrence in skill that results from having a perfected partnership with the market.
how the markets work.. thats just the same thing hand drawn, the market moves back and forth to the narrow spot(cleave), the wide spot (nip) and the flat spot (ledge),it dropped to 641 cleave,didnt really bounce there, then dropped to 623 nip, then bounced to 641-50 cleave again, then dropped to 623 nip again, if nip doesnt hold it goes to the flat spot 612 ledge, then maybe bounce back to 623 nip then drop to 607-599 widest nip,market rallies til it finds sellers, drops til it finds buyers,those spots are where there was value and a lot of trades previously, the cleave works like a gap fill,so it could theoretically do that, makes me look like a genius, but it happens all the time if you watch these mp charts,so its just repetition,simple way of watching the market