Why predict?

Now suppose I am Fuckem Rapem Ampersand Screwem, and I want all other MMs to know where I intend to take the market. Do you think a limit order far outside the DOM with a unique order size identifiable as being from me would suffice?
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Perhaps, but I don't know to be honest. Along these lines though I found this thread a few weeks ago and, like me, you might find it interesting http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=93808&perpage=6&pagenumber=1. Additionally some of the stuff that goes on in the 7:00 - 9:30 AM ET premarket definitely smacks of something other than a confused newbie putting in a very odd lot LO. There are rules about this sort of stuff but how well they are enforced, I again don't know.

Thanks for your thoughts.

lj
 
Just to refresh anyone who may have forgotten

Intuitive metaphor for Brownian motion
Consider a large balloon of 10 meters in diameter. Imagine this large balloon in a football stadium or any widely crowded area. The balloon is so large that it lies on top of many members of the crowd. Because they are excited, these fans hit the balloon at different times and in different directions with the motions being completely random. In the end, the balloon is pushed in random directions, so it should not move on average. Consider now the force exerted at a certain time. We might have 20 supporters pushing right, and 21 other supporters pushing left, where each supporter is exerting equivalent amounts of force. In this case, the forces exerted from the left side and the right side are imbalanced in favor of the left side; the balloon will move slightly to the left. This imbalance exists at all times, and it causes random motion. If we look at this situation from above, so that we cannot see the supporters, we see the large balloon as a small object animated by erratic movement.

That's the Wikipedia definition and very apt too imho. Now add some crowd psychology and I think we may be getting somewhere. The people below the balloon would probably want the damn thing to move off them in any direction. After all how much fun is it being suffocated by a giant balloon. So if the balloon moves to the left a little then the people on both sides, everything else being equal, would also push it to the left and it would go left at an increasing speed.
From balloon read stock/index price and one has a clearer picture of what is happening. Many a time the price is in a sort of limbo before being propelled up or down.
 
Jack!

You are not leaving are you! Clearly that is what you meant. I am just...sad. I have search for your posts almost every day for two years now. Yes, almost every day I search to see what you have posted.

Thanks for everything.
 
If I know anything about his type... " enigma as he would love us to consider him..... he wants us to quote and remember him.... without analysis" so we read his musings.. sorry.. I wont.. he states the obvious and is rude and inconsiderate to those who have considered him as wothy.

Jack.. your weak.. we want more but you dont seem to deliver..
PLEASE.. no rubbish about how good you are socially, tyhe world has moved on...... babe.. and where the hell wer U on the Gumball?.. huh..

Paul
 
Excuse me if I'm interrupting, as I'm not as well spoke as some of you more sophisticated ET'ers. But a trader can easily react to the price action as oppose to predicting it.

Think of a baseball player deciding on whether or not to swing on an incoming pitch. The batter doesn't "predict" if the pitch is a Curveball or a Fastball. He reacts to it. The market is similar. The trader reacts to the price action of buying or selling. He then decides to take the trade. The reaction a trader applies to buying or selling is based on his experience to bullish or bearish price movement. Often times the trader is wrong similar to a baseball player who fails 70% of the time, yet is still an elite player.
 
I passed it forward and people who decide to use it as they wish and they, in turn, pass it forward to others. That is going to continue.

I think I have addressed the questions at this point. Thank you for reading my stuff over the years. [/B][/QUOTE

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Jack

Thank y for your contributions and keeping these forums alive with your knowledge and humour over the years.
I for one search for your postings everyday, your humour is second to none. You have handed out so much of your trading knowledge to those who recognized that you are a genius and what you were trying to achieve.
Please pay us a visit on Spyder’s Journal, at least there, you have the respect that you deserve.
Good health and good luck
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I wrote what I wrote to be helpful.

It is clear that the market does not jump around.

Shooting holes in things is a common enterprise. I have chosen to not fill in the details that have been missed by those who do this. The reason is that their basic orientation to making money is not an orientation that leads to success, so I cannot help them in any way.

I can't help whiners either. Whining has no positive orientation to being successful.
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I find the traders who are "whiners", "worriers", "bullies" etc eventually fail at successful trading.

Trading is a physiological endeavor where correct psychological competence is of paramount importance. The psychology will initiate the appropriate physiological response(s) which will translate to the correct reaction(s) to a market signal.

The reason why more than 90% will fail is because most are "whiners" and "destroyers". They are all too busy worrying about every life obstacle and too busy destroying others with their negativity and incompetence. I have found there are very few who are "thankful" for what they have and spend time "building".

The first step for a new trader is to look into the mirror and write down what they see. Their weakness and the strengths.

The universe will echo back unto you what you echo into it. It is a irrefutable physical law. The markets are a part reflection of the universe. What you put into it, is what it will echo back to you.
 
Pissy, the notion you expound merely reflects your own placid, healthy personality. I believe in a different paradigm, a central tenet of NLP: "What can you do with a problem like that?" I am a complete nutcase, but by careful research and testing represented in "red light/green light/yellow light" code, I trade just fine, thank you! I only need to be able to distinguish colors and figure out which button to push on TWS. Doesn't take much character to do that.
 
Quote from arealpissedgoy:


... The universe will echo back unto you what you echo into it. It is a irrefutable physical law. ...
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What if you're not a "projector?"
 
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