Why predict?
- Thread starter EmRock
- Start date
It is less an explanation than an observation. I tried to trade a version of SCT in NQ, only to find that it works only when "they" want it to. They lead the retail trade around by the nose (me, included, of course). Never forget that it is all about making at least the spread, with as much volume as possible, and taking as little risk as possible with non-zero net positions. If SCT successfully fucks with that, SCT will be history. IMO the theory behind SCT is bullshit, the market responds to S/R on multiple time frames, and channels only form when multiple S or R serendipitously (or manipulatively) coincide. You see that shit all day long, price meandering around until a key MA "miraculously" coincides with a round number, or a round numbered profit target. To me trading is just going along with the gag.
wow you think I have anything to do do with hershey?
So far this is what I think of Hershey after some look at the methods and an overview of some of his statements:
Jack.. why dont you post your trades? I assumed you were a trading Guru but now Im not so sure.
Jack, why is your explanation of trading so utterly incomprehensible and unnecessarily esoteric and abstract?.. I have a degree in Biochemistry and an MBA and I say that not to impress anyone (sorry about that people) but to impress upon you the fact that there aint much I cant follow but I found your words really hard going.. and for what? is that really a demonstration of the clarity of thinking traders should follow?
Jack, you mention some issues about always being in the market and constantly mentioning your need to never PREDICT the market, which after much agonizing and lack of clarity or follow up explanation from you leads me to believe gaping holes in your argument are in abundance my friend. What you are referring to is your binary system that attributes points to conditions.. but this is great in theory, have you ever tried to chase the DAX using your theory.. which by the way IS chasing the market because there is no provision for anticipation (which is subset of prediction) in your theory.. so for it to work the emphasis on your system is one of speed.
I have grave concerns over your claims, your lack of coherence, your ability to digress, and your failure to back up succinctly your theories.. because lets face it.. thats what they are.. Classroom theories not real world applications.
If I wait for certain signals including price action to tell me the END of a mini trend.. my trade is usually toast. I have to anticipate "thinking ahead of the curve" knowing the past behaviour and personality of the Future Iam scalping to best make sure take my profit before whipsaw or pivot run. If I wait I lose my 1-3 tick profit because you have to remember a limit order is executed once the actual spread price moves from the level it was at when the Limit order was given (it is not a market order which is way too vague for my style). No prediction?... my ass...
We all know the most profitable system is one in which the trader is always in the market but even the Eurex Flipper.. probably one of the best traders in the world uses prediction and anticipation and scalps Eurodollar by taking assumptive positions rapidly on and within both sides of the spread... I believe he is better than you.. do you have any results or form that will compare to him perhaps?
Something is beginning to smell isnt it....
Jack.. why dont you post your trades? I assumed you were a trading Guru but now Im not so sure.
Jack, why is your explanation of trading so utterly incomprehensible and unnecessarily esoteric and abstract?.. I have a degree in Biochemistry and an MBA and I say that not to impress anyone (sorry about that people) but to impress upon you the fact that there aint much I cant follow but I found your words really hard going.. and for what? is that really a demonstration of the clarity of thinking traders should follow?
Jack, you mention some issues about always being in the market and constantly mentioning your need to never PREDICT the market, which after much agonizing and lack of clarity or follow up explanation from you leads me to believe gaping holes in your argument are in abundance my friend. What you are referring to is your binary system that attributes points to conditions.. but this is great in theory, have you ever tried to chase the DAX using your theory.. which by the way IS chasing the market because there is no provision for anticipation (which is subset of prediction) in your theory.. so for it to work the emphasis on your system is one of speed.
I have grave concerns over your claims, your lack of coherence, your ability to digress, and your failure to back up succinctly your theories.. because lets face it.. thats what they are.. Classroom theories not real world applications.
If I wait for certain signals including price action to tell me the END of a mini trend.. my trade is usually toast. I have to anticipate "thinking ahead of the curve" knowing the past behaviour and personality of the Future Iam scalping to best make sure take my profit before whipsaw or pivot run. If I wait I lose my 1-3 tick profit because you have to remember a limit order is executed once the actual spread price moves from the level it was at when the Limit order was given (it is not a market order which is way too vague for my style). No prediction?... my ass...
We all know the most profitable system is one in which the trader is always in the market but even the Eurex Flipper.. probably one of the best traders in the world uses prediction and anticipation and scalps Eurodollar by taking assumptive positions rapidly on and within both sides of the spread... I believe he is better than you.. do you have any results or form that will compare to him perhaps?
Something is beginning to smell isnt it....
A pity this interesting thread has devolved a bit into name calling etc.
The posting of real-time calls is however I think the "proof of the pudding".
Over on T2W up until recently there were 2 really switched on rt callers of the Dow 30 index. They both made loads of points EVERY day and had time to teach the newbies ! So no cheating, false bravado etc.
The posting of real-time calls is however I think the "proof of the pudding".
Over on T2W up until recently there were 2 really switched on rt callers of the Dow 30 index. They both made loads of points EVERY day and had time to teach the newbies ! So no cheating, false bravado etc.
Humpy, no name calling on my side if thats what you mean.. I am rather Goading (unsuccessfully & perhaps ill considered I will admit.. apologies everyone) a response from Hershy. I pm'd him twice.. nothing... i left response.... nothing...even allowed for his assumptions.... nothing..
Hopefully everything ok and hes busy at the mo..especially as the Dow just dropped 200 points so I can hear on the news (damn hurry up and finish opening my new account please GNI!!!)
But why write such a thing and not expect a response?....unless your objective is to educate and not debate.... which raises serious questions does it not?...... hmmm .. I have a feeling we will not get a response but lets just wait for now....
I am keen to know more and go deeper.. to find out how he reconciles that without any anticipation or prediction... Personally Im sceptical or as is probably the case.. thier is simply misunderstanding over simple semantics with regard to a definition of "Prediction" and / or "anticipation"....
cmon Jack.... spread your beans please....
Hopefully everything ok and hes busy at the mo..especially as the Dow just dropped 200 points so I can hear on the news (damn hurry up and finish opening my new account please GNI!!!)
But why write such a thing and not expect a response?....unless your objective is to educate and not debate.... which raises serious questions does it not?...... hmmm .. I have a feeling we will not get a response but lets just wait for now....
I am keen to know more and go deeper.. to find out how he reconciles that without any anticipation or prediction... Personally Im sceptical or as is probably the case.. thier is simply misunderstanding over simple semantics with regard to a definition of "Prediction" and / or "anticipation"....
cmon Jack.... spread your beans please....
IMO, JH has made some valuable observations and proffered some interesting interpretations of what goes on in the market. Like yourself I have problems with the channel thing but that does not mean that I dismiss his insights (and I'm not saying that you do [or don't]). If people find that it works for them, more power to them. From all that I've read and experienced, S/R is what up and for sure like everything else it can be manipulated. So I watch what "they" do and as you say, go along with the gag.
What I am most interested in is trying to determine if there is some way that they "keep track of things" and/or let each other know what they are doing (appreciating the fact that -gasp!! - there may be different groups of "they"). I have found a number of things some of which I have talked about elsewhere but there is one factor of late which increasingly I see to be of consequence in trying to figure out the S/R thing and that is the influence that the options market has on the equities market with respect to price levels (I do not trade futures, just equities).
The most obvious manifestation of this is the "max pain" phenomenon which climaxes each month at the end of OE week. I find it hard to believe (and don't believe) that these birds only get interested in put and call positioning the Friday before OE week begins. They are doing it all the time.
I do not think that the MM's/specialists are much into prediction, anticipation or after market sensitivity sessions (like - alright Tony, close your eyes and fall backwards and we'll catch you). They have their book but are keenly aware that things can change in the blink of an eye, so as I said, I prefer to let them make their move, in response to whatever, and go along for the ride.
lj
I wrote what I wrote to be helpful.
Right now I am culling through over 10,000 pages to build piles...five piles. Perhaps they will be helpful in the future for those who wish to manually trade somewhere.
It is clear that the market does not jump around.
It is also clear that the movement of the market operating point is a transition through multi-dimensioned space.
Once it becomes clear to a person how that path is determined by using, more or less a counter intuitive rationale, he is able to very clearly anticipate from this ordered and scientifically based proven null hypothesis what is what right down to the tick level.
Just so everyone has it straight, observations of the market are not what makes it so.
Now, 2007 is coming to a close and a period of contribution has been completed for putting PVT and SCT together in the journals in a step by step manual way. You will find it compares favorably with what else there is to chose from as one of many successful approaches.
Shooting holes in things is a common enterprise. I have chosen to not fill in the details that have been missed by those who do this. The reason is that their basic orientation to making money is not an orientation that leads to success, so I cannot help them in any way.
I can't help whiners either. Whining has no possitive orientation to being successful. Children cease whining at about 4 years old, usually.
Taking sufficient binary sets of data, repeatedly and following a routine of monitoring, analysis, decision making, and taking timely action is the definition of anticipation; it also coincides with front running the players in the game.
At this point it is best for me to kind of retire from most threads and, perhaps, just help occasionally to do my part in winding down the journals as 2007 comes to an end.
The conventional orthodoxy engenders to all who use it: fear, anxiety and anger, ultimately. For 50 years, I chose another path and paradigm. I passed it forward and people who decide to use it as they wish and they, in turn, pass it forward to others. That is going to continue.
It is unbelievable and astonishing to those who do not understand it or do not use it. That is their choice.
Choice has consequences, especially in the conventional orthodoxy which had an over 90% mortality rate. The many successful conventional orthodoxy methods and those methods outside of that box account for those who survive. Most people are so far gone that they cannot switch to anything else to survive in any paradigm.
Most popular press journalists and the contemporary writers carry forth the conventional orthodoxy. This is the contemporary basis that you use to judge PVT and SCT and me as an amateur trader. So I am unbelievable and astonishing. I use what the market offers as a standard and I judge myself to be doing a good job and I judge the conventional orthodoxy to be believably poor and I am astonished that it is so poor in performance.
I feel ET has a lot of forums and their threads cover the topics of trading. The redundancy is there as well. It is evident that there is a membership cycling going on. Some people come and go as they fail; others come and go as they see that a cycle of information exchange or learning has been completed. In trading, one cannot always learn. That is most often precluded as a consequence of prior choices. It is possible to learn to apply new support services to trading if the trading is successful. Successful traders can continue to learn and unsuccessful traders cannot continue to learn.
I have long been associated with the scientific community where often people cooperate to move forward the science of things. Certainly, where profits are concerned, cards are often held close and leapfrogging occurs. ET was different for me for the most part.
The fear, anxiety and anger, a consequence of the conventional orthodoxy, RULES. Sharing support, comfort and confidence is not on the table here in ET except in a few journals. The PVT and SCT journals will be available in the future and many contributors have been very helpful towards getting the working issues on the table so they can be iteratively refined.
It is really fun to make a lot more money than you need all the time. Deciding to do it, only takes a second. BE DO HAVE.
I think I have addressed the questions at this point. Thank you for reading my stuff over the years.
Predict time, not future price and/or market direction. You can explore my journal
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=95127
in order to see consistent market timing approach.
I don't know whether prediction is unavoidable, but I know that right prediction can be used for trading.
Ljyoung, years ago I detected signalling between NYSE MMs and their counterparts at regional exchanges as to the direction price was going to be taken so they would be in synch. It was as simple as an oddball number of shares traded at a price not corresponding to the current B/A.
Now suppose I am Fuckem Rapem Ampersand Screwem, and I want all other MMs to know where I intend to take the market. Do you think a limit order far outside the DOM with a unique order size identifiable as being from me would suffice?
Now suppose I am Fuckem Rapem Ampersand Screwem, and I want all other MMs to know where I intend to take the market. Do you think a limit order far outside the DOM with a unique order size identifiable as being from me would suffice?