Why predict?

Jack,
I would be interested to see how this all shakes out in your approach. It seems to me then that you are working through the feedback loops and making maket adjustments in accordance or in sync with the market... your rules for adjustment have been predefined it would appear and I envisage that all translates to combinations of bids and asks that may on occassion overlap and be used in unequal balances in order to reverse positions e.g. 3 lot long position is railroaded by a 6 lot short thus reversing the overall position but maintaining a foot in the market at all times... and thus maximizing the profit.. on that basis I can see that thier is no "prediction" as such only reaction... although for the untrained this represents a Psychological barrier for some because one effectively may be considered to be chasing the market.. which ofcourse is actually a very newbie thing to do. From this I imagine the speed of reaction in your system is second to none... it would surely have to be... so most retail accounts and high RT cost environments are out

Isnt their still an element of anticipation and if so does that constitute a predictive quality? Certainly I would imagine the system would need to have been refined using some predictive assessment in order to best work out the necessary actions according to various market permutations..

In any case I believe I grasp the nub of your argument and style of trading..., but do you mechanize the reactions and adjustments to your market positions or are the adjustments manual out of interest?

PS Ive just realised your the dude with articles everywhere in relation to various scalping methodologies... nice work....

all the best
Paul
 
Ah, dear Jack, finally a quantitative quote one can nail you on:

"...it continually extracts almost every drop available."

Now being literal-minded, "every drop" means to me taking all the limit order traders' money. Yet day after day I see that collectively they continue to make the spread, and more, despite your best efforts.

I will know you are not full of shit the day that the markets collapse because LO traders can't make any money any more.

And anyone who truly understands the markets knows that if you ever show up on big MM's A-scans they'll turn up the beam power and your method will be toast.
 
And anyone who truly understands the markets knows that if you ever show up on big MM's A-scans they'll turn up the beam power and your method will be toast.
More...

Could you please describe what an A-scan is and how the MM's, by turning up the beam power, could fry JH's protcol?

lj
 
Sorry, it wasn't a post meant for anybody but Jack. He's an old sparky like me, and knows what a radar A-scope is. Has nothing to do with trading. The point is that IF he is successful enough to cause index future MMs to make noticeably less profit, then they will fade SCT. Grudgingly, I have to admit that I think I see that to some extent. Which is why IMO there is endless whining on Spydertrader's futures thread wondering when the real FTT will stand up.
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

Sorry, it wasn't a post meant for anybody but Jack. He's an old sparky like me, and knows what a radar A-scope is. Has nothing to do with trading. The point is that IF he is successful enough to cause index future MMs to make noticeably less profit, then they will fade SCT. Grudgingly, I have to admit that I think I see that to some extent. Which is why IMO there is endless whining on Spydertrader's futures thread wondering when the real FTT will stand up.
More...



I could post real time signals if you wish.

If I do .... will you promise to F****** shut up?

( I trade a derivative of FTT so I won't promise 4 X ATR, will 1.5 X ATR shut you up? )
 
Quote from Paulds11:

OK after some thought to the question, what you ask and assert is thus (regarding financial markets only):

1.predicting the markets is unnecessary as well as being unrealistic.

2.Prediction is not necessary in making money in the markets
3.Clever people make money through exploiting their own expectations in the market, but In the long run, how can I make money through prediction of the markets..? am I clever?

ANSWER:

1. Regardless of the time frame a prediction of an expectation is an absolutely fundamental prerequisite in profiting from the market because our entry into the market must account for our expectations IF we are to profit from that position later...

2. This has been answered in 1

3. You have to have a cognitive ability to assess the markets rationally in order to draw conclusion from that and produce an opening position of sorts. That doesnt mean you cant change your hypothesis or prediction or even goal of profiting from a rise and a fall after entry into that market or product... often as in Options for example it is the follow up to market events (rolling up, average down etc) that predicts your profit after market entry.. not necessarily the entry in the first place.

Ultimately The skills necessary for the exploitation of a market for profit, are cognitive in nature.. the ability to assimilate disparate pieces of information and produce notions of market movement as a result either before or at least during an "opened" position. At the same time cognitive ability is required to enter randomly and adjust to ones position accordingly either by price bias or by exploiting time bias in the markets and this is the key.

If I had the time I would have to have the money to cope with infinite draw downs to positively profit from the markets, if they were Random.

If I had the money, I could manipulate the time spent in the markets through a force of movement in my positional trading via size if if they were Random.

But like the theory of entanglement, once I have interacted with the opposite spin of light (or the markets), the system remains forever engaged with or fixed as "read" ie.. the markets are now not random by my interaction with them and therefore can be predicted.


prediction is the necessary substitute compensating for a lack of time (to experience cycles and profit) and money (to influence the market now and profit)... IF YOU WANT TO PROFIT FROM THE RANDOMNESS OF A MARKET. THE PARADOX IS by accepting the above... the markets are certainly NOT random and are subject to manipulation through time and position sizing, ie ONCE YOU ENTER up or down you have removed randomness from the market.

Am I clever?.. no more than anyone else who sees this information and accepts it because they already trade through predicting either by fundamentals or technicals.... although of course Id say I was... (wouldn't anyone).



Many thanks for your provocative hypothesis... very enjoyable that one.. although the answer was in fact easier than expected once considered fully... as Im sure you knew anyway... nevertheless I was initially flummoxed by it..

Paul
More...


very well stated. bravo!

surf
 
Goyim, I am sure that all of ET would thrill to a journal of real-time SCT trades. They would prefer it from Jack, but you'd make a suitable proxy.
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

Sorry, it wasn't a post meant for anybody but Jack. He's an old sparky like me, and knows what a radar A-scope is. Has nothing to do with trading. The point is that IF he is successful enough to cause index future MMs to make noticeably less profit, then they will fade SCT. Grudgingly, I have to admit that I think I see that to some extent. Which is why IMO there is endless whining on Spydertrader's futures thread wondering when the real FTT will stand up.
More...

Ah! My only experience with A and B scans is with respect to modes on an ultrasound apparatus. It is a revelation and a wonderment to see how the BSD's (from Lewis' "Liars Poker"), as I like to call them, bedevil JH's efforts by creating faux FTT's. My guess would be that they wouldn't have to faux it for very long or by very much to make things miserable for the practitioners of the Hershey SCT methodology. But then that is just a guess and perhaps he's already figured a way around it by using some sort of volume filter. But then that gets into the whole ERF-Gaussian thing, which, although beautifully discussed here http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Erf.html is not something I want to abuse any of my neurofibrillary tangles with this late in the evening.
Thank you for your courteous reply.

lj
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

Goyim, I am sure that all of ET would thrill to a journal of real-time SCT trades. They would prefer it from Jack, but you'd make a suitable proxy.
More...


Journal my ass. I don't have time to teach you how to trade.

This will be a private room, time stamped the entire day, with an ET moderator to monitor and verify the EOD script. I will free up Tuesday, August 14, 2004?

I will need you and your multiple aliases to no longer post on ET on any matter pertaining to Jacks Methodology. After the real time results are posted, any post you or your multiple aliases make, results in erasure of all your posts on ET pertaining to Jack. And a lifetime ban on your IP.

Do you agree?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top