Why New York has 14 times as many coronavirus deaths as California
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
I dont excpect us to get testing as fast as SK or other places, they are just more organized but why are we so slow in getting it out after we were told in February I think(?) that everyone can get a test.
I agree with the idea that if we could test everyone over the next 3 weeks in major areas, we can open up business with modified social distancing and cleaning procedures with confirmation who is not carrying (no different than when someone is getting over the flu and goes out).
Sorry got cut off. I was ok with the announcement on March 13 or so that my state as well as many others would go into lock down through end of Spring Break which was April 14th. That was a 3 - 4 week period. Then ok..it was extended to end of April.
In those 6 weeks we could have stopped all this back and forth bullshit and rolled out test kits by the millions non stop (I don't even know how that works so might not even be possible but lets go with it) and by the end of April there we would be test kits for the first line of people who need to get out and go to work.
Then keep rolling out tests for those in groceries and restauarants and open them. then private business can get testing done for essential employees and roll them back to work slowly since many can telecommute a little while longer.
then get athletes tested and have them start playing in front of empty arenas and use a portion of the proceeds that will be made from TV (since we will be desparate to watch sports) and pay the arena workers.
Then....
Then....
It can be done. Instead my governor cancelled school until June (2 more months away) as did most of the States and many want to stay likes this until June...wtf?
I always said...6 weeks and then move on is a lot easier for the government to spend and save than 3 months and part of the blame is the slow roll out among the states. If we did it all at once like SK, Japan and Taiwan did....we would not be hearing that states now are becoming hot spots (2 weeks of carrying corona with no symptoms and no lock down, not surprising the time lag before a state suddenly gets 2000 cases in a week with testing and people running to the hospital...)
Anyway..too late for that....Many people I deal with are closed u ntil end of April (outside the U.S.) and then will re open. No talks at all about extending it out past then, only how to reopen intelligently.
When did other countries learn to do this better than us (sarcasm)
In those 6 weeks we could have stopped all this back and forth bullshit and rolled out test kits by the millions non stop (I don't even know how that works so might not even be possible but lets go with it) and by the end of April there we would be test kits for the first line of people who need to get out and go to work.
Then keep rolling out tests for those in groceries and restauarants and open them. then private business can get testing done for essential employees and roll them back to work slowly since many can telecommute a little while longer.
then get athletes tested and have them start playing in front of empty arenas and use a portion of the proceeds that will be made from TV (since we will be desparate to watch sports) and pay the arena workers.
Then....
Then....
It can be done. Instead my governor cancelled school until June (2 more months away) as did most of the States and many want to stay likes this until June...wtf?
I always said...6 weeks and then move on is a lot easier for the government to spend and save than 3 months and part of the blame is the slow roll out among the states. If we did it all at once like SK, Japan and Taiwan did....we would not be hearing that states now are becoming hot spots (2 weeks of carrying corona with no symptoms and no lock down, not surprising the time lag before a state suddenly gets 2000 cases in a week with testing and people running to the hospital...)
Anyway..too late for that....Many people I deal with are closed u ntil end of April (outside the U.S.) and then will re open. No talks at all about extending it out past then, only how to reopen intelligently.
When did other countries learn to do this better than us (sarcasm)
I think that we should all be wearing masks. Japan and South Korea have very low infection and death rates. The reason being everyone is wearing masks. Japan did not even shutdown its economy and everyone is going about their business, going to work, etc. They did not suffer from more infections and more deaths. It was a big mistake by so called experts to discount the effectivity of masks. I understand the reason which was to discourage people from buying those N95 masks which one cannot buy these days even if you wanted to. If we all wore masks, infection rates and death rates might go down.
There is another article where it is suggested that we open our windows in our homes to let the fresh air blow out any viruses and germs trapped inside our homes. Pretty common sense suggestion that we can all easily do. Supermarket stores and box stores like Costco probably, needs to install high powered intake and outake valves in their stores. Let fresh air in, expel stagnant air out as well. Might safe lives in the process.
They don't have cars so their grocery runs are much smaller hauls....basically whatever they can carry home. People with cars can stock up resulting in less of a need to go outside as often.
The people of NYC could use grocery delivery services instead of leaving their apartments to make a run to the local bodega to risk their lives to replenish their soy milk.
regarding herd immunity.
1. I read that some people working in hospitals get sick because of the viral load.
2. Is it possible if we get a small viral load... that we could start building antibodies without really getting sick?
If so, I do not think you can rule out that some herd immunity could be built up in localized areas. Like say the workers at costco.
or... for instance in january at my daughters school her and many of the kids were out with the flu, yet they did not test positive for the flu. If say a 20 percent of more of the of the school over a period of a few weeks got sick enough to stay home. Is it not possible many of the other kids in school were exposed and now are immune? And their familes.... and friends and relatives. Because I know my daughter and her friends were patient zeros for bunch of their family members.
You all really need to think about this stuff before you just print some stat they talks about society as a whole.
I am telling all right now... I went to costco a lot at first to buy food and toilet paper and because I love their cashews and Tilamook cheese. I saw the same people working there for weeks. they had no protection until about a week ago.
Now I noticed their workers tend not to be fat and out of shape. In fact many are fit.
If this virus were really an indiscriminate dangerous virus to all. Costco workers would all be toast. They see thousands of people a week in those places. But, somehow with all this non social distancing San Diego only had 45 deaths... as of yesterday.
Any thinking person... would have to look at this... and wonder if social distancing / shut down is only a small part of what has happened, because we really did not socially distance all that well. Most of us were out buying food without masks until last weekend.
1. I read that some people working in hospitals get sick because of the viral load.
2. Is it possible if we get a small viral load... that we could start building antibodies without really getting sick?
If so, I do not think you can rule out that some herd immunity could be built up in localized areas. Like say the workers at costco.
or... for instance in january at my daughters school her and many of the kids were out with the flu, yet they did not test positive for the flu. If say a 20 percent of more of the of the school over a period of a few weeks got sick enough to stay home. Is it not possible many of the other kids in school were exposed and now are immune? And their familes.... and friends and relatives. Because I know my daughter and her friends were patient zeros for bunch of their family members.
You all really need to think about this stuff before you just print some stat they talks about society as a whole.
I am telling all right now... I went to costco a lot at first to buy food and toilet paper and because I love their cashews and Tilamook cheese. I saw the same people working there for weeks. they had no protection until about a week ago.
Now I noticed their workers tend not to be fat and out of shape. In fact many are fit.
If this virus were really an indiscriminate dangerous virus to all. Costco workers would all be toast. They see thousands of people a week in those places. But, somehow with all this non social distancing San Diego only had 45 deaths... as of yesterday.
Any thinking person... would have to look at this... and wonder if social distancing / shut down is only a small part of what has happened, because we really did not socially distance all that well. Most of us were out buying food without masks until last weekend.
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The viral load is key. This is from one of the doctors on YouTube. He said when a person sneezes, assuming you are both in an enclosed room, in one case, the windows of the room are closed, if he has the Corona Virus, he would infect you and cause you immense harm because the viral load would be heavy and concentrated. Compare that to the same room but, now, the windows are open allowing fresh air to come in and blow and disperse the virus, even if part of the viral load hits you, you would get only a small viral load with most of it dispersed in the air and others blown out of your house thru the windows. I now open the windows to my room to disperse any germs and viruses that may be trapped in my room. We all can do this simple thing of opening our windows and allowing fresh air in to come in and blow any germs and viruses out. That is why box stores like Costco, supermarkets, cruise ships, airliners and even hospitals are very dangerous places and huge incubators of germs and viruses. It is enclosed and the air circulated thru the airconditioning system is stale air and anyone sick with germs and viruses coming in will spread it all over the place.
I just read in business insider herd immunity depends on R0. The who apparently had this virus pegged at 2 to 2.5 R0 making causing the estimate for herd immunity to be 50 percent or a bit lower.
Now.. with my thesis having been all these estimates have been awful, in part because of China's bad data an in part because we had people pretending they could make useful models when they really did not have the data...
who the hell knows the R0 of corna virus. I would not be surprised if the R0 was significantly off for non compromised immune systems. Hence herd immunity in populations of healthy people might be a thing already.
All of my thoughts are speculation. But, you see I admit my stuff is speculation base on limited data and observation.
Media and Govt has been spouting a shaped narrative that is starting to run the risk of being very wrong. We will know in the next 30 days.
Now.. with my thesis having been all these estimates have been awful, in part because of China's bad data an in part because we had people pretending they could make useful models when they really did not have the data...
who the hell knows the R0 of corna virus. I would not be surprised if the R0 was significantly off for non compromised immune systems. Hence herd immunity in populations of healthy people might be a thing already.
All of my thoughts are speculation. But, you see I admit my stuff is speculation base on limited data and observation.
Media and Govt has been spouting a shaped narrative that is starting to run the risk of being very wrong. We will know in the next 30 days.
https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-4
here is the article I referenced.
here is the article I referenced.
I will agree that they do not have a handle on the actual R0 of COVID-19. Proper data and more time is needed to arrive at a realistic conclusion.
Most of the initial studies show an R0 of above 4.
One example -
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
This particular study shows the value is likely between 4.7 and 6.6