Why New York has 14 times as many coronavirus deaths as California

Feb 11? Yeah... it was studies like that built with suspect data from China which should have come with massive warnings.... in their title.



I will agree that they do not have a handle on the actual R0 of COVID-19. Proper data and more time is needed to arrive at a realistic conclusion.

Most of the initial studies show an R0 of above 4.

One example -
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

This particular study shows the value is likely between 4.7 and 6.6
 
Feb 11? Yeah... it was studies like that built with suspect data from China which should have come with massive warnings.... in their title.

South Korea which provided full testing and traced every positive result showed similar R0 calculations of approx. 4.0 for its initial set of infections. However until a larger community of analysis and testing is performed then the actual world-wide R0 value will not be known. The infection rate is also impacted by the response in a country; a county that is uncontrolled will have a much higher R0 rate than a nation with a stay at home order in place.
 
but your study was on data from China...
the scientist would have known it was garbage but it was shit like that that went into models Models which have turned out to be dramatically wrong.

It was a shaped narrative and it was used to control us.
Parents can get away with that trick once or twice but then their kids rebel.

If our Govt wants us to be good citizens again in the future Govt leaders, the media and the expert like Fauci need to be truthful about what seeing and what they are asking.



South Korea which provided full testing and traced every positive result showed similar R0 calculations of approx. 4.0 for its initial set of infections. However until a larger community of analysis and testing is performed then the actual world-wide R0 value will not be known. The infection rate is also impacted by the response in a country; a county that is uncontrolled will have a much higher R0 rate than a nation with a stay at home order in place.
 
I have been working on the same concepts... and back when I lived the area ... all those markets down on the ground floors were very dense.... not much room to walk around. Not sure there are as many ground floor markets now.

2 main reasons----Elevators and limited sunlight. They are in a cave even in the streets, much like bats-------see what I did there?
 
Herd immunity would require that over 60% of the population in California had recovered from COVID-19. The numbers are nowhere near 60% of the population in terms of the number of cases (even making assumptions for the addition of unreported mild cases).

Bottom line - California and no other location has "herd" immunity at this time which would stop the wide-scale spread of COVID-19 across the population.

The only way to "open up" America in the short term is to mirror South Korea and get proper large-scale testing & tracing in place as soon as possible.
agreed.
 
I dont excpect us to get testing as fast as SK or other places, they are just more organized but why are we so slow in getting it out after we were told in February I think(?) that everyone can get a test.

I agree with the idea that if we could test everyone over the next 3 weeks in major areas, we can open up business with modified social distancing and cleaning procedures with confirmation who is not carrying (no different than when someone is getting over the flu and goes out).
 

Sadly April 15th...

By learning from a MERS outbreak in 2015, South Korea was prepared and acted swiftly to ramp up testing when the new coronavirus appeared there. Meanwhile, the U.S., plagued by delay and dysfunction, wasted its advantage.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind

Our leaders are always too proud to admit someone else did it better and ask for collaberation or guidance. One thing the WHO did correct is that they had a template for the testing that could have been copied but the U.S./CDC decided to come up with one from scratch. April 15th and we still lack appropriate number of tests or drive through centers to get the country back open.

Maybe by May 31st...
 
Sadly April 15th...

By learning from a MERS outbreak in 2015, South Korea was prepared and acted swiftly to ramp up testing when the new coronavirus appeared there. Meanwhile, the U.S., plagued by delay and dysfunction, wasted its advantage.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind

Our leaders are always too proud to admit someone else did it better and ask for collaberation or guidance. One thing the WHO did correct is that they had a template for the testing that could have been copied but the U.S./CDC decided to come up with one from scratch. April 15th and we still lack appropriate number of tests or drive through centers to get the country back open.

Maybe by May 31st...
I read earlier that the South Korean government went straight to the private sector to develop and manufacture test. That specifically looks like the differentiating factor. The US initially relied on big government, the CDC, to develop and manufacture the test which was a complete and total failure. So, this is a great example of big government failing.
 
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