No 10x baggers in my account this year. I was out of the country in March and completely missed the take off. But my wife asked me what might be a good gamble earlier in the year and she bought $18,000 worth of AVNR at an average of .36. Maybe she'll make us the vacation money this year.
Why most traders are losers
- Thread starter tomsmith
- Start date
Here is what I have traded over my 6 year career:
Took $50,000 from my IRA and it put into a trading account. Watched the market start to come off itâs bottom in 2003 AND WAITED for a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.
1st trade- Day after Memorial weekend Iâm watching the screen at the open and the QQQâs go from red to green within minutes and start to run up (.20 to .25 to .30 on the bid on SP 29 calls Iâm watching) . No, I donât know if the Qâs have a flaming doji or an inverted hammer coming out of their arse on the stock charts or not, but I know that if the price is going up that fast there is a HIGH PROBABILITY I can make money buying. I buy 1000 of the near month 29 strike price calls for .30 and immediately pull up an order to sell 10,000 Qâs at market if the trade suddenly turns and I want to make money on the drop. Well the Qâs run all that week and Mon-Thurs of the next week and I cash out with the calls at $275+ and over $250,000 profit.
2nd trade- Unlike most traders, Iâm in no rush to give my money back so I look and wait awhile before risking any of that $250,000. Looking through the WSJ one day I notice that 2 new companies have been added to the Nasdaq, one of them is Taser. I figure being added to the listing is going to raise the price of the stock so I take a look at it, like what I see, and risk about 15% of my now $300,000+ war chest and buy 1500 shares of the stock at the open in the low $30âs since it doesnât have options yet to buy. Taser runs up to $127 before falling down and I get out at $108. I clear over $100,000.
3rd trade-Some people are winners, some are losers. I think people like Steve Jobs and Martha Stewart are winners. I thought that when she was dealing with the Feds before going into the pokey and the stock was down to $8, that she would be a winner again. I put my money where my mouth was and bought 1000 of the $10 strike price LEAPS for the next year at $50 each. I sold them with MSO in the high $20âs and I made $2725/ contract, 1000 contracts. Do the math on that .The stock went up further to the mid 30âs in Feb before turning, but Iâm not a pig and was happy with what I made.
I'll believe it when I see copies of your brokerage statements.
How about some redacted copies???
Somehow I doubt we'll see them.
Eric M
Took $50,000 from my IRA and it put into a trading account. Watched the market start to come off itâs bottom in 2003 AND WAITED for a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.
1st trade- Day after Memorial weekend Iâm watching the screen at the open and the QQQâs go from red to green within minutes and start to run up (.20 to .25 to .30 on the bid on SP 29 calls Iâm watching) . No, I donât know if the Qâs have a flaming doji or an inverted hammer coming out of their arse on the stock charts or not, but I know that if the price is going up that fast there is a HIGH PROBABILITY I can make money buying. I buy 1000 of the near month 29 strike price calls for .30 and immediately pull up an order to sell 10,000 Qâs at market if the trade suddenly turns and I want to make money on the drop. Well the Qâs run all that week and Mon-Thurs of the next week and I cash out with the calls at $275+ and over $250,000 profit.
2nd trade- Unlike most traders, Iâm in no rush to give my money back so I look and wait awhile before risking any of that $250,000. Looking through the WSJ one day I notice that 2 new companies have been added to the Nasdaq, one of them is Taser. I figure being added to the listing is going to raise the price of the stock so I take a look at it, like what I see, and risk about 15% of my now $300,000+ war chest and buy 1500 shares of the stock at the open in the low $30âs since it doesnât have options yet to buy. Taser runs up to $127 before falling down and I get out at $108. I clear over $100,000.
3rd trade-Some people are winners, some are losers. I think people like Steve Jobs and Martha Stewart are winners. I thought that when she was dealing with the Feds before going into the pokey and the stock was down to $8, that she would be a winner again. I put my money where my mouth was and bought 1000 of the $10 strike price LEAPS for the next year at $50 each. I sold them with MSO in the high $20âs and I made $2725/ contract, 1000 contracts. Do the math on that .The stock went up further to the mid 30âs in Feb before turning, but Iâm not a pig and was happy with what I made.
I'll believe it when I see copies of your brokerage statements.
How about some redacted copies???
Somehow I doubt we'll see them.
Eric M
even IF every word of your story is true (and Im not saying it isnt), it just reminds me of Forest Gump. You gambled (in a foolish and overleveraged way to begin with) and WON. Congratulations. But that was NOT trading, it was gambling, you admit as much yourself. In fact, on all of the initial trades you crow about, you saw a run of good luck. Nothing more, Forest. Educated guesses, sure, and well done at that, but there were a MILLION ways those trades could have gone against you. 100 traders here could probably have pointed out 100 negative aspects of each of those trades describing how each was in fact a BAD idea at the time, in opposition to your gut feelings. But you gambled, you won. The more recent trades, as someone just said, are boring, you obviously arent leveraging or risking the percentages you did in the beginning, which means you are LESS willing to gamble and want to instead ANALYZE and TRADE (even if subconsciously) as many other traders do, which is in itself a condemnation of your original methods! Hilarious!
Odysseus
Odysseus
"The more recent trades, as someone just said, are boring, you obviously arent leveraging or risking the percentages you did in the beginning,"
I've made it real clear that I think it is a stacked game and the small time player is better off trying to dart in and out than repeatedly going head to head with the bigger fish. I'm keeping that money I grabbed.
But the three boring positions I entered all did go up over 10% from my entry point within a short time . So I'm still doing OK % wise using my gut feeling to enter trades.
I've made it real clear that I think it is a stacked game and the small time player is better off trying to dart in and out than repeatedly going head to head with the bigger fish. I'm keeping that money I grabbed.
But the three boring positions I entered all did go up over 10% from my entry point within a short time . So I'm still doing OK % wise using my gut feeling to enter trades.
Most traders are losers because they make trading decisions based on:
**Technical Indicators
and
**Technical Oscillators.
Take a trip to the Board of Trade & talk with a few "locals" who have been making millions for decades.
Ask them if they give a shit about elliot's wave; or the 36-day moving average.
Amateurs deserve what they get for their actions; so does everyone else.
Most likely these pros will tell you they try to Buy the lows & sell the highs, using tight stops.
If they're wrong, they have a small loss; if they're right they're short @ top or long @ bottom.
Of course other like to scalp.
This is a long, long, loooooong thread & I doubt very much any aspiring success has learned anything from these comments, which is why I'm posting.
If you understand the simple logic of what I've related then I congratulate you; if not, too bad. I tried in good faith.
Happy Fourth!
**Technical Indicators
and
**Technical Oscillators.
Take a trip to the Board of Trade & talk with a few "locals" who have been making millions for decades.
Ask them if they give a shit about elliot's wave; or the 36-day moving average.
Amateurs deserve what they get for their actions; so does everyone else.
Most likely these pros will tell you they try to Buy the lows & sell the highs, using tight stops.
If they're wrong, they have a small loss; if they're right they're short @ top or long @ bottom.
Of course other like to scalp.
This is a long, long, loooooong thread & I doubt very much any aspiring success has learned anything from these comments, which is why I'm posting.
If you understand the simple logic of what I've related then I congratulate you; if not, too bad. I tried in good faith.
Happy Fourth!
I love chocolate covered frozen bananas...wait... what was he topic of this thread again?
I think this is a good point. It seems like too many traders look for that golden strategy, indicator, etc. instead of building a feel for the market and price action. Relying on indicators takes the "feel" out of trading, and sometimes that's a psychological roadblock as you never truly are "in control".
I disagree. Having a technical strategy that is quantifiable is what makes some of the best traders the best. It's all about having a strategy and following it with discipline. Guys like Jim Simmons, Jerry Parker and many other 100% systematic traders do much better then traders who have a "feel" for the markets.
+1
