Why most traders are losers

"Having a technical strategy that is quantifiable is what makes some of the best traders the best. It's all about having a strategy and following it with discipline. Guys like Jim Simmons, Jerry Parker and many other 100% systematic traders do much better then traders who have a "feel" for the markets."

I used to read articles about the best trades of the year and as I remember they were very large trades based on the trader's knowledge of the commodity or stock and the existing conditions at that time. These guys didn't seem to be making the trades based on TA or a system and certainly didn't seem to be making numerous trades a day or week. I remember Narajan saying his best trade was a straddle on Apple before earnings because he didn't know which way it would move, but he figured it would move big one way or another. No TA there.
I have yet to see any quantifiable evidence that using TA and oscillators to enter positions will give better results than observing the market conditions and using intelligent thought. But having a system to manage risk and exit the position is needed once any position is entered.
As for trading and gambling, wasn't it Schwartz of the Market Wizard fame who's 1st big trade was a bunch of naked calls. Maybe that is the best way to get started with a small account.
 
I like maybe 3 trades a month. pure "speculation", yield curve bet in treasuries, and then another futures trade that meets most of my TA parameters, if not 95%.

if you trade too much with an account even under 100k, I think it gets pretty hard. accounts under 10k seem almost impossible, and even 25k to pay expenses seems very rare. most people have 2-4k a month in expenses, so you need 10% just to pay overhead stuff.

if you make money on first trade, make money on second, lose on third. you now have 3x clearing fees and 1x profit. i hope that profit was 2x more than the losers. then you get stressed and need to trade more.

i got lucky with the dot com area, and have a full-time job. but every now and then i put on a trade and let it work.

oh yea, my point. I think TA is extremely overrated for most people, but because it's easier than fundamentals we like it. green and red candles can become a drug.

always ask yourself "what is the one scenario that will hurt the most amount of retail traders"

i think much lower.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

+1 :)
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OK, but what if my strategy is to sell every single opening print every day.
and let's say it's a loser 9 days in a row. do i quit?

we all like hard fastened strategies because it gives us a "plan", but how do we know if that plan works long term?
so should we just get a plan and bet everything on it forever? no.

ok, buy breakouts and use 2 point stops. and let's say i works 9 times in a row. then fails 9 times in a row. now what? or i do it for 5 months and lose just a little. quit or keep doing it? change it a little? if you change it, doesn't that hurt the integrity of the system?

i never understand this argument. history never exactly repeats itself, so range and trend traders cannot always be right.

so now have 2 strategies?
10?

i think you need to be like VC companies. do all the homework you can, bet on 10 companies, and hope 3 are home runs.
 
Quote from TheBestGuruEver:

OK, but what if my strategy is to sell every single opening print every day.
and let's say it's a loser 9 days in a row. do i quit?

we all like hard fastened strategies because it gives us a "plan", but how do we know if that plan works long term?
so should we just get a plan and bet everything on it forever? no.

ok, buy breakouts and use 2 point stops. and let's say i works 9 times in a row. then fails 9 times in a row. now what? or i do it for 5 months and lose just a little. quit or keep doing it? change it a little? if you change it, doesn't that hurt the integrity of the system?

i never understand this argument. history never exactly repeats itself, so range and trend traders cannot always be right.

so now have 2 strategies?
10?

i think you need to be like VC companies. do all the homework you can, bet on 10 companies, and hope 3 are home runs.
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Hi Best,
Instead of seeing one approach as "the one", true strategy is positioning yourself to be able to choose various moves as circumstances change. Strategic thinking (discretionary) as opposed to formulaic thinking ( systems). Over the years I have evolved from systems to discretionary as I've found that the best RR for me is found in being adaptable. Personally I've found adaptability hard to achieve in short term trading.

Regards

Johno
 
"it just reminds me of Forest Gump"

Forest Gump- if I remember right he saw a potential opportunity, took a risk and was rewarded for his risk. Am I suppose to be insulted by the comparison?

Here's another Forest Gump thing I did- I took some of my MSO winnings and invested in Scuderi Engines when you could invest in the stock for barely over a buck . The stock is into the double digits now and requires a minimum investment of one million dollars ( which I'm sure leaves out most on this thread ) .

Anyway, this thread is getting long in the tooth, let's say we kill it.
I still stand by what I said- If you are a small time player hoping to make big $ in the market, be very patient and selective, then go big or stay home. Showing up with a $100,000 account and thinking you are going to make a living trading when the best in the game don't even average a 40% return is wishful thinking. I do know one person who does it, but he breaks every rule these pros will tell you to should follow.

Good luck to all making money!!
 
"still no brokerage statements to prove it all."

Ok I spoke to my accountant today and asked about your request. He said he can pull those records, remove the confidential info and either post or pm them to you. There will be a 1hr charge. Do you want me to pm you his address and rates for you to send the payment? Since I'm not trying to sell you anything, don't expect me to pay for it.
 
Quote from GCSICLRBC:



Most likely these pros will tell you they try to Buy the lows & sell the highs, using tight stops.

If they're wrong, they have a small loss; if they're right they're short @ top or long @ bottom.
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Thats right.
 
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