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Why Many So Pessimistic About Market? Is Economic Outlook the Reason?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Quote from piezoe:
I have to interject something here that I missed earlier, and it seems most have missed it: If a miracle should happen and the Washington morons actually agree on a significant decrease in spending and at the same time a significant increase in tax revenues-- certainly the right thing to do, but if they do it they are almost certain to do it wrong -- then the market will take a mild hit and go down, because the dollar will strengthen some. But it will be a "hit" in only the nominal sense, and we will all be better off in the long run. (Don't worry though if you are long, the chanc
"then the market will take a mild hit and go down, because the dollar will strengthen some. "
sounds like the US is a 2 bit 3rd world country with a depreciating currency.
Quote from piezoe:
I have to interject something here that I missed earlier, and it seems most have missed it: If a miracle should happen and the Washington morons actually agree on a significant decrease in spending and at the same time a significant increase in tax revenues-- certainly the right thing to do, but if they do it they are almost certain to do it wrong -- then the market will take a mild hit and go down, because the dollar will strengthen some. But it will be a "hit" in only the nominal sense, and we will all be better off in the long run. (Don't worry though if you are long, the chance of these morons doing the right thing is minuscule.)
The comment about the dollar is what I thought a couple of weeks ago, but the market did the opposite after the initial move in the direction implied by the analysis --- gold rose and dollar index weakened.
I think the market could be also backward looking, as opposed to always forward looking which is what people seem to like/prefer to think.
Quote from tradingjournals:
The comment about the dollar is what I thought a couple of weeks ago, but the market did the opposite after the initial move in the direction implied by the analysis --- gold rose and dollar index weakened.
I think the market could be also backward looking, as opposed to always forward looking which is what people seem to like/prefer to think.
Of course the market i also "backward looking" . That's what support and resistance is all about.
Pessimistic? How can we not be pessimistic when the USA will default on its debts just because several politicians cannot make timewise decisions... hence the market uncertainty. I am from Kazakhstan and sometimes think an iron fist would be useful: in times like this the USA would benefit from less from quarreling and more from the decisions that simply have to be made. Unless a decision is made by this week, I expect more market uncertainty and pessimism... global financial crisis #2 anyone?
Quote from Kazak_Trader:
Pessimistic? How can we not be pessimistic when the USA will default on its debts just because several politicians cannot make timewise decisions... hence the market uncertainty. I am from Kazakhstan and sometimes think an iron fist would be useful: in times like this the USA would benefit from less from quarreling and more from the decisions that simply have to be made. Unless a decision is made by this week, I expect more market uncertainty and pessimism... global financial crisis #2 anyone?
Well I was born and raised in the U.S. and I have seen this kind of nonsense many times, and it is only getting worse. So please don't be the least concerned. The U.S. will not default on its debt, and no interest payments will be missed. But it will very possibly default on what is owed to its own citizens, but that kind of default, if it happens at all, will be done in a way that makes it very difficult for the average person to figure out that they have been "defaulted" on.* It could take the U.S. congress a long time to agree on "budget adjustments" clever enough to make it seem as though they have their constituents interests at heart and at the same time assure that money from their campaign contributors will continue to flow in their direction. This is not easy! So it should be understandable that this process can take a while.
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* As an example of the common way of doing something versus the congressional way, consider the raising of revenue. This is not done by simply proposing an increase in the tax rate and then voting on it. Rather it is done by other means with an equivalent result. For example one can propose to close a "tax loop hole", or to repeal a tax break, or simply force the Fed and Treasury to monetize debt. These things all have the same result as directly raising the income tax. They all move money from private pockets to government coffers. But the "congressional way" is far more appealing to voters, or completely opaque, compared to straightforward raising of the income tax.