Why Many So Pessimistic About Market? Is Economic Outlook the Reason?

[Rabbitone]

Shortie, I thank you for the courage you show in posting your trading thoughts. You do well in suffering the slings and arrows from outrageous ET’ers. Here are a few thoughts from an old swing trader:

1. Summer time trading has not shown me much market volume conviction up or down. But money flow does appear to be out of the market since May 1.
2. The (daily or weekly) chart of the S and P 500 looks like it is either moving into a trading range (1270 to 1370) or maybe it is in a forming head and shoulders pattern.
3. I will not be a slight pessimist or a slight optimist until we break out of this range bound market or complete the head and shoulders pattern.
4. I will just trade what is given me up or down and follow my plan.
5. On the current situation. Prices make news. News doesn't make prices.

P.S. But I am still a sucker when it comes to thinking I can predict market direction (no I can’t). So keep writing Shortie and load up my ego. I so enjoy this idle speculation. It keeps my old brain from decaying…

Shortie, I hope I chimed enough for you.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from short pecker:
you don't mean to say that i start those polls specifically for you?

Uh no dumb shit.

Quote from stubby:
you ask too many questions.

And you start too many polls, what's the difference?

 

[TGregg]

Quote from the1:

Until proven otherwise, surf's still up. QEIII will get stocks heading much higher as will the raising of the debt ceiling. The US isn't going to default -- simple as that.

QE3 will indeed head us North - somewhat. But the idea that we need a QE3 and that it is not immediately forthcoming will drive us down until Uncle Benji announces QE3. Ultimately it will have much less of an impact than QE2, and we will soon clamor for QE4. QE4 will be a big $#*^ing joke, except only the bears'll be laughing.

 

[shortie]

Obama more or less warns about Black Monday:

With the Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling approaching, Obama said at the White House tonight that “at minimum” Congress must act to avoid a U.S. default that would roil financial markets and damage the economy. He said he was consulting with Treasury Department officials about a default’s potential consequences.

“It’s very important that the leadership understands that Wall Street will be opening on Monday and we’d better have some answers during the course of the next several days,” Obama said.

Obama displayed frustration with the Republicans, saying Boehner didn’t return his phone calls during the day, observing it wasn’t the first time during the debt-limit talks he had been “left at the altar,” and declaring the Republicans had walked away from “an extraordinarily fair deal.”

“Can they say yes to anything?” Obama said to reporters. “It’s the Republican Party that has said that the single most important thing facing our country is deficits and debts. We’ve now put forward a package that would significantly cut deficits and debt.”
Boehner’s Response

Boehner disputed Obama’s version of the dispute at a press conference shortly after the president’s, saying he withdrew from the talks because the White House “moved the goal posts” on the tax revenue that would be included in a deal. He said the Obama administration wanted “more money at the last minute.”

“It’s not in the best interest of our country to raise taxes during this difficult economy,” Boehner said.

He also expressed his own frustration with the bargaining, saying that dealing with the White House was like negotiating with a “bowl of jello.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...way-from-fair-deal-in-debt-ceiling-talks.html

 

[Rabbitone]

The dems have no interest in cutting anything with a major election next year. They believe for every dollar of the budget that is lost a vote for their reelection is gone. They do not want to lose their seats in government. They have all seen the can kicked down the road successfully for so long they believe they can all escape the final pain, kick the can one more time and let some other fool deal with this problem in the next congress.

But times have changed. Media around the world have now recognized socialist government folly from the plights in Europe. More and more media for the first time in years included the U.S. as a bankrupt government. Then a new threat appears. With the time right credit rating agencies like Moody’s saw the Medias comments and are piling on with threats of their own to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. All of this has fanned the flames.

Then rides in Obama who believes he will save the country, the election and give the dems one more chance to kick the can down the road. Obama will not play “Game over…” because he is delusional. He believes he alone can save the dems from having to give up bought votes. He does this by wildly continuing to change the terms of agreements at the last minute. Then he jumps in front of the media and blames the GOP for the breakdown in talks. His desperate negotiating tactic is to scare Americans in to calling their GOP members demanding they listen to BO. This way BO expects to “save” the votes the Dems so desperately need. He really believes that congress is “cattle” that succumb to his taunts and be led down the trail he picked which is to kick the can down the road...

 

[piezoe]

Quote from shortie:

i think it's Lucrum's way of trying to draw my attention to him.

Here is my message to Lucrum: I won't date you!

, Well done, young man! Not even Edith Sitwell could have bettered your rejoinder.

 

[piezoe]

Now to comment on less interesting matters: The market is flat and has been trading in a fairly broad range all summer.

Perhaps since we have a world economy now, the U.S. economy has become smaller part of the total picture. I suppose the dollar will remain weak for an indeterminate period and this will keep the market afloat, as will earnings abroad when restated in dollars. All this in spite of a very shitty domestic economy with millions out of work and a lower middle class that is being left to twist slowly in the wind while waiting for a morsel to "trickle" down.

I note that the dollar is once again revisiting an intermediate low, and the 4-year low is not far below. There is nothing here to suggest the market will be other than sideways to up over the next few months, unless of course the morons in Washington cause an actual default,

 

[shortie]

Quote from piezoe:

, Well done, young man! Not even Edith Sitwell could have bettered your rejoinder.

thank you! i have never thought of myself as a poet until now.

actually, I've always wanted to pretend that I was an architect.

 

[shortie]

I note that there are surprisingly many pessimists out there despite major indices flirting with multi-year highs. I am guessing that the people are overwhelmed by the "default possibility". Blame the media!

Street.com poll

Total Votes: 206 votes


1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?

Bullish 42.23% 87 votes
Bearish 47.57% 98 votes
Neutral 10.19% 21 votes

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:


actually, I've always wanted to pretend that I was an architect.

You would not have to pretend if you were to say that you were a trading systems architect.

In a Seinfeld's series, was George's desired profession an architect or a marine biologist?