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Why isn't the market going down?
- Thread starter MustPlayOptions
- Start date
Quote from daddyeaux:
the current new age thinking at the Fed. means that most any poor crdeit will be monetized.
with inflation at 10% and the 10 year trez at 3.80, who else is buying that crap other than Benny B-52 and the lost planet airmen.
i really think that's it
we are looking at the spectre of hyperinflation to bail out the fed's bubble disasters and neocon wars
what a disaster, these people are
Quote from Cutten:
I don't understand why you think you have to get "completely out of the market". Why would you want to make such an all-or-nothing decision? With interest rates at 2%, cash is not exactly a good long-term return asset class.
You need to stop thinking in terms of putting all your money in stocks or all out of stocks based on short-term timing decisions. Instead, build a diversified long-term investment portfolio spread across multiple asset classes: US stocks, international stocks, emerging market stocks, real estate, bonds, TIPS, and commodities. Forget timing and just keep your preferred allocations over the long-haul, minimising costs, taxes, and stress.
Here's a balanced ETF portfolio for you, that would have held up pretty well in both 2007-08 and 2000-2003:
15% SPY
10% IWM
15% EFA
5% VWO
15% RWR
15% TIP
15% IEF
5% DBC
5% GSG
That gives you only 25% exposure to US stocks, another 20% to World & Emerging Markets stocks, and the rest in a mix of real estate, bonds, TIPS and commodities. Your chance of losing 50% on that portfolio is almost zero, even in a next great depression.
Read this thread for more info:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125840
I actually am very diversified with 10% in 3 bond funds, 40% in 6 or 7 region specific international funds, 40% in specific ector funds and 10% in general market funds.
I haven't made any major adjustments in these positions for over 2 years and am up over 25%, but I really don't want to see another 50% drop.
I'm not wise enough to pick specific sectors and time things that way as some posters suggest so that's why I'm thinking all or none.
Thanks for all the responses so far. The sector suggestion so far is the thing that makes the most sense to me so far, but I'm still very nervous.
Quote from MustPlayOptions:
I actually am very diversified with 10% in 3 bond funds, 40% in 6 or 7 region specific international funds, 40% in specific ector funds and 10% in general market funds.
I haven't made any major adjustments in these positions for over 2 years and am up over 25%, but I really don't want to see another 50% drop.
I'm not wise enough to pick specific sectors and time things that way as some posters suggest so that's why I'm thinking all or none.
Thanks for all the responses so far. The sector suggestion so far is the thing that makes the most sense to me so far, but I'm still very nervous.
But some puts then, I thought you would have done this given your view and name.
5yr
The market is being held up by massive amounts of liqudity pumped in from the Fed. The market does not truly reflect the loss of overall "WEALTH" from the weak dollar.
Infact, the INDU isn't really a 'representation' of anything but hope at this moment.
If anything the market will start to dry up, as we are seeing signals now, end up in a tight range for a few years. We may not see a "Crash" or a serious move below 11000.
I think the smart money has rolled out of the INDU and the majority of the US Markets. Mutual Funds, 401ks and your average joe may still have his working money going into the market but IMHO but I think many have hit the exits.
Infact, the INDU isn't really a 'representation' of anything but hope at this moment.
If anything the market will start to dry up, as we are seeing signals now, end up in a tight range for a few years. We may not see a "Crash" or a serious move below 11000.
I think the smart money has rolled out of the INDU and the majority of the US Markets. Mutual Funds, 401ks and your average joe may still have his working money going into the market but IMHO but I think many have hit the exits.
Here's a balanced ETF portfolio for you, that would have held up pretty well in both 2007-08 and 2000-2003:
_____
If you would have rolled into Energy Funds, Mining Funds and Emerging Markets, you would have blown away most of your 25%. Energy funds can be up near 60% as emerging Markets can be between 22% and 30%.
INDU and America isn't the only place to put your WEAK DOLLAR to work.
_____
If you would have rolled into Energy Funds, Mining Funds and Emerging Markets, you would have blown away most of your 25%. Energy funds can be up near 60% as emerging Markets can be between 22% and 30%.
INDU and America isn't the only place to put your WEAK DOLLAR to work.
Most people just donât get it, we have the New Economy and that is global economy not USA economy, so think about the huge companies that making fortunes investing all over the world China, India⦠Not just USA.Quote from MustPlayOptions:
I know that there's speculation that the sub-prime crisis may be ending but with gas prices as high as they are and the number of jobs being lost, why isn't the market turning down?
Before you flame please understand that I'm really curious. I'm thinking of getting completely out of the market and don't know if I should pull the trigger or not.
I don't see how it's not turning given that the future seems wrought with a weak dollar and high oil/gas prices and a weak job market. All that on top of the lingering damage from the sub-prime mess.
I feel like I've got to be missing something since the market seems to be hopeful.
Any insights are appreciated. I just don't want to see my savings fall 50% again like a few years ago.
Thanks,
MPO
If you wan to get deeper in to it you should learn about the final goal and that is New World Order.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?d...536&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=8
Quote from 5yrtrader:
But some puts then, I thought you would have done this given your view and name.
5yr
Options are for playing for me, not for my investing. I have considered buying a bunch of DXD to hedge, but being married I have to take into consideration that my wife said no way. I'm still trying to convince her that that's an option but if not, then getting out is the other option.
As for trying to get 60% returns, I'm not that good nor am I that greedy. I'm very happy with over 25% in about 2.5 years whether or not it beats the indices, although I think it does.
Like I said, I just would really hate to see a huge drop and everything around me is making me nervous.
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
Here's a balanced ETF portfolio for you, that would have held up pretty well in both 2007-08 and 2000-2003:
_____
If you would have rolled into Energy Funds, Mining Funds and Emerging Markets, you would have blown away most of your 25%. Energy funds can be up near 60% as emerging Markets can be between 22% and 30%.
INDU and America isn't the only place to put your WEAK DOLLAR to work.
Hindsight is 20/20.
What can you move to today to make those kinds of returns?
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
If anything the market will start to dry up, as we are seeing signals now, end up in a tight range for a few years. We may not see a "Crash" or a serious move below 11000.
This is really scary to me. Go look at SPX in the mid 90's and even some parts of this decade, 5 point daily ranges for months on end. Trading the Index futures will really suck ass. GULP! :eek: